Today we are all trying to figure out who slots where, as well is what to do with the 7 starters for 5 spots.
There is question about who will be the opening day guy, and who will even fill out the rotation. People are optimistic about Holland, but still skeptical because of his inconsistancy. The popular opinion is Ogando is a 2 pitch pitcher and needs to go to the bullpen.
Where will we be one year from today? Here's my thoughts...
I think Darvish will be our "#1" because of the investment we will feel obliged. However, I think he will have a very good year and prove to be everything he was hyped to be. A lot of Ks (8+ per 9 innings) and a solid walk rate around 3 per 9 innings and a 5 WAR pitcher. Holland will be an all-star and be an established #2 (not on our staff, a legit #2) with an increased K rate and lower walk rate. He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't gibe up the long ball like he used to. He gets hurt when he walks people (and especially when he strings walks together) and he will finally limit those. Lewis will have earned a nice 3 year contract at around $15 mil a year somewhere, with a great postseason resume. Alexi Ogando and Michael Pineda will forever linked as similar pitchers, both of which will be considered top of the rotation starters. With increased stamina, and two full years starting under his belt he no longer have to worry about the bullpen question. The biggest concerns with him right now are his stamina and if he can develop a third pitch. Last year, when he wore down the velocity was still there, but the command went. He will be able to hold up his command all year. The third pitch will determine if he one of the top pitchers in the AL or just a great one. I think Harrison will be traded by then, but he reminds me of a 2010 CJ Wilson. He keeps the ball on the ground and is very good pitcher with potential for more, but his success will be determined by throwing strikes. He has been improving his K rate, and if that continues to go up he could be really good, but he really really needs to cut down on his BB rate to reach his potential. He's come around a lot. Feliz will have a year similar to Ogando last year, I think he will slow down a bit in the second half, but not as badly as Ogando did, but I think walks will be a problem for him. The strikeouts will be fine, but his success will be determined by how many free passes he gives. I think he will flash the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher, but will still have some work to do (which will be fine for a 24-25 year old by then).
I don't think Martin will pitch much, if at all at the big league level, and if he does I hope it is out of the bullpen in a long relief role. However, when he does get to the show I think he will be better than people around here think. He is very inconsistent as you may expect from someone so young, but he has suffered from some lousy defense behind him the last few years which has made his numbers look worse than they should be, but he does have work to do on sharpening his command. Either way, this time next year he will be ready to be a full time big leaguer, it will just be about trying to find a place for him.
Feldman will be trade bait. If he pitches like he did last year, he will be too good to be a long man out of the pen (and too expensive for that role) and he could be very useful to a hopeful playoff team or any team looking for a good starter at the back end of their rotation (at a reasonable price).
Neil Ramirez will be in the same situation as Martin, but with no place to pitch.
There is question about who will be the opening day guy, and who will even fill out the rotation. People are optimistic about Holland, but still skeptical because of his inconsistancy. The popular opinion is Ogando is a 2 pitch pitcher and needs to go to the bullpen.
Where will we be one year from today? Here's my thoughts...
I think Darvish will be our "#1" because of the investment we will feel obliged. However, I think he will have a very good year and prove to be everything he was hyped to be. A lot of Ks (8+ per 9 innings) and a solid walk rate around 3 per 9 innings and a 5 WAR pitcher. Holland will be an all-star and be an established #2 (not on our staff, a legit #2) with an increased K rate and lower walk rate. He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't gibe up the long ball like he used to. He gets hurt when he walks people (and especially when he strings walks together) and he will finally limit those. Lewis will have earned a nice 3 year contract at around $15 mil a year somewhere, with a great postseason resume. Alexi Ogando and Michael Pineda will forever linked as similar pitchers, both of which will be considered top of the rotation starters. With increased stamina, and two full years starting under his belt he no longer have to worry about the bullpen question. The biggest concerns with him right now are his stamina and if he can develop a third pitch. Last year, when he wore down the velocity was still there, but the command went. He will be able to hold up his command all year. The third pitch will determine if he one of the top pitchers in the AL or just a great one. I think Harrison will be traded by then, but he reminds me of a 2010 CJ Wilson. He keeps the ball on the ground and is very good pitcher with potential for more, but his success will be determined by throwing strikes. He has been improving his K rate, and if that continues to go up he could be really good, but he really really needs to cut down on his BB rate to reach his potential. He's come around a lot. Feliz will have a year similar to Ogando last year, I think he will slow down a bit in the second half, but not as badly as Ogando did, but I think walks will be a problem for him. The strikeouts will be fine, but his success will be determined by how many free passes he gives. I think he will flash the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher, but will still have some work to do (which will be fine for a 24-25 year old by then).
I don't think Martin will pitch much, if at all at the big league level, and if he does I hope it is out of the bullpen in a long relief role. However, when he does get to the show I think he will be better than people around here think. He is very inconsistent as you may expect from someone so young, but he has suffered from some lousy defense behind him the last few years which has made his numbers look worse than they should be, but he does have work to do on sharpening his command. Either way, this time next year he will be ready to be a full time big leaguer, it will just be about trying to find a place for him.
Feldman will be trade bait. If he pitches like he did last year, he will be too good to be a long man out of the pen (and too expensive for that role) and he could be very useful to a hopeful playoff team or any team looking for a good starter at the back end of their rotation (at a reasonable price).
Neil Ramirez will be in the same situation as Martin, but with no place to pitch.
Either Andrus or Profar will likely fetch serious return for 2013.