Earth Rider said:
My first question is if you do hit on that 2.4 percent and get an All-Star, but you sign the contract up front before knowing you hit on him. So you get a bargain for a year or two with that initial contract.
You can sign them up to 4y8M. That's what Bronny got, the 2nd rounder max.
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But then after a year or two he is a free agent and you have to pay market value for a potential all star, could be much more than the 4 year 1st round rookie contract?
RARELY happens that way, even 2nd rounders that show out immediately. A lot take a while. It happened with Jokic. He made ~1.3M for three years, then 25M his 4th year. But that 4y average is still just 7.25M. So about the same as the 10th pick?
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So if you are great at drafting, you get penalized for it with a high salary after a year or two because you took the future all star in the second round and not the first. that is just my understanding.
If you hit on a 2nd rounder that is an All-Star in his first couple seasons, you DGAF.
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My next question is, the advantage of the 1st round pick is you have them locked into a salary for four years? And those salaries are guaranteed. But if you get a bust on a 1st round pick, does that pick still count against your salary cap, and do you have to keep him for 3 or 4 years?
They get a 2y contract with two one year options. So if they are a bust, you can not exercise their options and let them walk.
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Second rounders are either a year or two year contract I assume, or you can cut them. Then if they are great they may be resigned on a much larger contract. Where I am going with this, in a weak draft, where the 1st rounders are all projects and hopes and dreams, and not much different from the second rounders, then a second round pick is more valuable than a late first round pick that could be a bust and you are stuck with? You can easily cut a second round pick.
You can easily cut either. Late first round picks are just under 3M/year. 2nd rounders are generally two ways, unguaranteed contracts, or just flat out cheap guaranteeds.
Some times when teams are on cap crunch, they move from late 1st to early 2nd to avoid the guaranteed salary. We did that back in with Leon Smith and the Mavs way back in the day.