J.P. 03 said:

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Sorry. I probably used the wrong adjective. Just didn't feel like the right time to use it when we had the lead and some momentum.

And as it turns out, it wouldn't have mattered if we had the challenge to use in the 4th anyway, so water under the bridge.

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Any time the refs make a bad call, a challenge is worth it. Considering it resulted in 2 points for Boston, it did matter. Those bad calls add up throughout the game.

jeffdjohnson said:

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DJJ, PJ, Kyrie, Maxi, and Green went 1 for 16 from 3 point range. There is nothing else to say. Boston shot poorly at 25% Somehow the Mavs shot worse at only 23%. Nothing else to say other than the Mavs blew a winnable game.

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Shooting has been pretty terrible in Boston over both games really. Team just looks flat or worn out. They don't seem to have that same gear that they had for the other 3 series.

Barring a 2006 like seismic shift in the series, this one is over in 5. And frankly that's how it should go given the gap in these teams. Dallas needs to go out and turn Hardaway's contract into a perimeter big, and we need Hardy or Green to develop into a more reliable wing offensive option.

On the bright side, Aggie baseball just put up one of the greatest half innings you'll ever watch

Im not ready to concede the Celtics are as great as they look. They are forcing the Mavs into tough sets and shots, but I think the role Mavs players get a shot in the arm at home.

No one has played well offensively. Not a single player. Even Luka shooting 57% tonight is a wash with 8 (often insane) TOs.

PatAg said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Barring a 2006 like seismic shift in the series, this one is over in 5. And frankly that's how it should go given the gap in these teams. Dallas needs to go out and turn Hardaway's contract into a perimeter big, and we need Hardy or Green to develop into a more reliable wing offensive option.

On the bright side, Aggie baseball just put up one of the greatest half innings you'll ever watch

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Feel free to stop posting.
(just to clarify, this is solely because all you ever do is post stuff about how great the other team is playing, or how poor we are playing. YOu literally never seem to be happy if we are doing well. Its either the greatest troll job in history, or you are a very annoying "fan" to be around. No one is giving you kudos for being impartial)

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He's very analytical, which I can appreciate. But he also clearly doesn't know anything about the actual game.

His analysis is somewhat correct, but with the way this game was called, this series was decided long ago.

Just get tired of the people that only post the moment something starts to go wrong, and then nothing when it is going well. Became very obvious the deeper this run has gone.

Series hinges on Kyrie. This was theirs with a decent game from him. Getting hime will hopefully do some good

mavsfan4ever said:

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Tatum is soooo ****ing terrible. I'm pissed that he may get a ring and people will act like he's great.

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Lol I'm with ya. He's ok at everything but has absolutely no bag. It's maddening to hear Doris Burke praise his "patience" when he has more turnovers than made FGs, meanwhile Josh Hart says Luka needs to "wake up" at halftime.

mavsfan4ever said:

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Tatum is soooo ****ing terrible. I'm pissed that he may get a ring and people will act like he's great.

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Yep, probably the most disappointing thing for me. He's doing exactly what those of us who didnt believe in him said he would do and it's looking like he'll get bailed out.

He is an incredibly passive player when it matters most and his jump shot falls off a cliff. Hes been, at best, Boston's 4th best player so far. It's a joke people were asking if he's in the same category of player as Luka and Jokic.

That is an extremely rough no-call. Jaylen is trying to send him to the line. Not a fan of that one, shocker. pic.twitter.com/dqFU7LjBQc

— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) June 10, 2024

What is this ref looking at?

mavsfan4ever said:

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Tatum is soooo ****ing terrible. I'm pissed that he may get a ring and people will act like he's great.

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Tatum is a really good player. But he's been carried super hard so far by his teammates. He's not one of the top 5 players in the nba like Celtics fans want you to believe

rsf0626 said:

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mavsfan4ever said:

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Tatum is soooo ****ing terrible. I'm pissed that he may get a ring and people will act like he's great.

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Tatum is a really good player. But he's been carried super hard so far by his teammates. He's not one of the top 5 players in the nba like Celtics fans want you to believe

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I would love for Luka's teammates to do some carrying this series. Not even carrying, just some light lifting.

PatAg said:

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That is an extremely rough no-call. Jaylen is trying to send him to the line. Not a fan of that one, shocker. pic.twitter.com/dqFU7LjBQc

— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) June 10, 2024

What is this ref looking at?

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It was consistently bad all game.

rsf0626 said:

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mavsfan4ever said:

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Tatum is soooo ****ing terrible. I'm pissed that he may get a ring and people will act like he's great.

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Tatum is a really good player. But he's been carried super hard so far by his teammates. He's not one of the top 5 players in the nba like Celtics fans want you to believe

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Best thing about this series is that Brown or Jrue will be the MVP and there will at least be consumable turmoil in that franchise.

This team will probably win game 3. I still feel ok.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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This team will probably win game 3. I still feel ok.

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Home teams down 0-2 have an extremely high win percentage in the NBA. They cover something like 75% of the time and win a disproportionate amount of time given they are almost always the inferior team in those situations. Dallas probably will win game 3 honestly.

Dallas small glimmers of hope are one, KP didn't look great coming out and Dallas has outplayed them when he's off the court and two, Luka is by far the best player in this series and that matters if you can get it to a game 6-7. So far Boston is doing what they needed to, not give Dallas any chance to win at the end of games.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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This team will probably win game 3. I still feel ok.

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Home teams down 0-2 have an extremely high win percentage in the NBA. They cover something like 75% of the time and win a disproportionate amount of time given they are almost always the inferior team in those situations. Dallas probably will win game 3 honestly.

Dallas small glimmers of hope are one, KP didn't look great coming out and Dallas has outplayed them when he's off the court and two, Luka is by far the best player in this series and that matters if you can get it to a game 6-7. So far Boston is doing what they needed to, not give Dallas any chance to win at the end of games.

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Makes perfect sense that the inferior team wins a disproportionate number of times.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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This team will probably win game 3. I still feel ok.

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Home teams down 0-2 have an extremely high win percentage in the NBA. They cover something like 75% of the time and win a disproportionate amount of time given they are almost always the inferior team in those situations. Dallas probably will win game 3 honestly.

Dallas small glimmers of hope are one, KP didn't look great coming out and Dallas has outplayed them when he's off the court and two, Luka is by far the best player in this series and that matters if you can get it to a game 6-7. So far Boston is doing what they needed to, not give Dallas any chance to win at the end of games.

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booooooooooo

shack009 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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This team will probably win game 3. I still feel ok.

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Home teams down 0-2 have an extremely high win percentage in the NBA. They cover something like 75% of the time and win a disproportionate amount of time given they are almost always the inferior team in those situations. Dallas probably will win game 3 honestly.

Dallas small glimmers of hope are one, KP didn't look great coming out and Dallas has outplayed them when he's off the court and two, Luka is by far the best player in this series and that matters if you can get it to a game 6-7. So far Boston is doing what they needed to, not give Dallas any chance to win at the end of games.

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Makes perfect sense that the inferior team wins a disproportionate number of times.

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No rational person watching this series believes Dallas is the better team. If Dallas wins the next 4 games, Boston is still the better team. They would have simply collapsed for some as of yet unforeseen reason.

In a gentleman's sweep, the most common game that is won by the loser by far is game 3. Most of the time a team down 3-0 just gets swept. The hardest part is always winning game 4, because the complacency for the better team has worn off and they've adjusted to being on the road. If Dallas gets this back to Boston 2-2 maybe, MAYBE they start to choke.

The caveat to all this of course is that Boston the last few years is, and this is not hyperbole, the best road playoff team of all time. Their average road margin of victory is double digits, which is unheard of over this sample size in the playoffs.

Don't you have some more irresponsible COVID vaccine advice to give?

Series doesn't start until someone wins a road game. Mavs had a chance to steal one tonight and shat the bed. It's closer than you think.

Eh, not really. Celtics shot 26% from 3 and the mavs didn't win. That can't have happened. He was bad on COVID and he doesn't really understand how actual basketball games work, but his general analysis of the numbers in this series are correct.

Mavs shot 23% from 3 and 66% FT. Either of those swing even slightly and they win this game. It's not all doom and gloom.

I could see the Mavs dropping 120-130 on the Celtics Wednesday if the role players hit their ****ing shots for once.

Thanks?

Phat32 said:

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Don't you have some more irresponsible COVID vaccine advice to give?

Series doesn't start until someone wins a road game. Mavs had a chance to steal one tonight and shat the bed. It's closer than you think.

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See, the great thing about the last few years is it has taught me to take the Keanu Reeves approach to Dunning-Kruger situations. You think 1+1 is 5, well you're right, have a good one.

I don't apply the same logic to macro level sports discussions because there's a lot less nuance and you don't need to a deep understanding of anything to recognize that Boston's road playoff statistics are largely unmatched historically.

Phat32 said:

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Mavs shot 23% from 3 and 66% FT. Either of those swing even slightly and they win this game. It's not all doom and gloom.

I could see the Mavs dropping 120-130 on the Celtics Wednesday if the role players hit their ****ing shots for once.

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The difference with the Mavs is that a lot of our misses were guys like Maxi, PJ, DJJ, and Green, guys who the Celtics would love to shoot.

I imagine this is sort of how OKC felt after playing us.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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This team will probably win game 3. I still feel ok.

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Yup, I agree.

Boston won at home like they were supposed to, now it's Dallas time to win at home…

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Phat32 said:

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Don't you have some more irresponsible COVID vaccine advice to give?

Series doesn't start until someone wins a road game. Mavs had a chance to steal one tonight and shat the bed. It's closer than you think.

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See, the great thing about the last few years is it has taught me to take the Keanu Reeves approach to Dunning-Kruger situations. You think 1+1 is 5, well you're right, have a good one.

I don't apply the same logic to macro level sports discussions because there's a lot less nuance and you don't need to a deep understanding of anything to recognize that Boston's road playoff statistics are largely unmatched historically.

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I think you just take the Eeoyore approach

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Phat32 said:

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Don't you have some more irresponsible COVID vaccine advice to give?

Series doesn't start until someone wins a road game. Mavs had a chance to steal one tonight and shat the bed. It's closer than you think.

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See, the great thing about the last few years is it has taught me to take the Keanu Reeves approach to Dunning-Kruger situations. You think 1+1 is 5, well you're right, have a good one.

I don't apply the same logic to macro level sports discussions because there's a lot less nuance and you don't need to a deep understanding of anything to recognize that Boston's road playoff statistics are largely unmatched historically.

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The problem with this approach is that the Celtics 3 point percentage says the mavs should have won this game. But we didn't because the game wasn't at all called the same both ways. It just wasn't. From the tip (they fouled DJJ when he collected the tip) and through the whole game.

But people who don't understand basketball and rely only on numbers have a hard time seeing that.

And remember, I was way down on the Mavs chances after game 1. But the mavs got hosed this game. We just did.

shack009 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Phat32 said:

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Don't you have some more irresponsible COVID vaccine advice to give?

Series doesn't start until someone wins a road game. Mavs had a chance to steal one tonight and shat the bed. It's closer than you think.

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See, the great thing about the last few years is it has taught me to take the Keanu Reeves approach to Dunning-Kruger situations. You think 1+1 is 5, well you're right, have a good one.

I don't apply the same logic to macro level sports discussions because there's a lot less nuance and you don't need to a deep understanding of anything to recognize that Boston's road playoff statistics are largely unmatched historically.

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The problem with this approach is that the Celtics 3 point percentage says the mavs should have won this game. But we didn't because the game wasn't at all called the same both ways. It just wasn't. From the tip (they fouled DJJ when he collected the tip) and through the whole game.

But people who don't understand basketball and rely only on numbers have a hard time seeing that.

And remember, I was way down on the Mavs chances after game 1. But the mavs got hosed this game. We just did.

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Dallas lost because of a pretty unusual delta in FT % between the teams at the NBA (nearly 30 percentage points) and because they didn't take advantage of the Celtics unusually bad night from 3 because they had an even worse night (23 vs 25%). All else being equal, Dallas wins if they just close that FT gap to 15% and hit 2 more threes for a % still below both their regular and postseason averages. In other words, Dallas needed to just do that those two things good old fashioned poorly instead of being abysmal to win.

When games don't play out the way you would have thought based on the stats you were expecting to decide the game, look for the outliers. Large statistical variances from the norm usually explains it.

Also, while Dallas did have more turnovers it was really the TYPE of turnovers. Boston has been committing mostly dead ball turnovers, while 10 of Dallas 15 turnovers were steals that turned into 18 points for Boston. Live ball turnovers are a killer especially on the road because they often lead to easy buckets, many of which are highlight reel dunks/alley oops that get the home crowd going. Each live ball turnover decreases your chances of winning an NBA game by about 2%.

The best way to counter an anti-lyrics take is with more analytics.

I get it, you are way in to the analytics. I like using advanced metrics as well.

You're missing the whole part about how the mavs were called for 5 fouls like 7 minutes in to the game and it changed everything about how they defended the rest of the game.

Analytics don't account for the whole watching the game part.

ETA: and the Celtics weren't called for the same fouls the mavs were, as you previously admitted. It's really bold to use an analytics take while also admitting the game wasn't called the same both ways.

But Dallas defended just fine, if you take out the fluke half court buzzer beater and the one arm fling to beat the shot clock (neither of which had anything to do with defense) Boston scored 100 points. That's nearly 21 points below their season average and holding them to much lower than that is really just going to be due to statistical variance on their part given how good they are offensively. In other words, you can't realistically expect to keep them much lower than that by mere scheme/effort. And while Boston did shoot poorly a lot of it was the relatively high % of contested threes they took.

Outside of the first quarter of game one, Dallas has defended more than well enough to win both games. The problem is almost entirely offensive right now. They are giving the Celtics a lot of free points off live ball turnovers and just simply aren't scoring enough, either because of missing looks they've consistently hit all postseason or because Boston is an exceptionally good team at contesting shots inside 15 feet. The absolute floor to realistically have a chance to beat Boston night in and night out is 110 points, and really you need to aim for 115-120.

And again, you keep saying Dallas got MORE bad calls against them than a normal road team in the playoffs. You are saying that, not me. What I said was there is a clear baseline officiating advantage expected by home teams in the playoffs that has held true here, but it is not deviating into the realm of unusual. That does happen, it actually happened a couple times in the 2016 Finals and was a big part of Cleveland coming back (game 6 was a flagrant attempt to force game 7 by the officials, it's as big a reason as Lebron and Steph's injury for the series outcome IMO). That hasn't hadn't to date in this series.