I'm a Mavs fan, and I'd vote in Kawhi.

Wish nothing but decades of sustained failure for the Spurs after this run though.

As a Thunder fan, I still think it's TBD. I thought Russ could have essentially locked it up if he averaged a triple double and the Thunder grabbed 50 wins + 4 seed. But now it looks like the later for sure isn't going to happen and the former is in jeopardy.

IMO it will come down to Russ, Harden and Kawhi. My personal theory is that while Lebron definitely deserves to be in the discussion with those guys, he's set the bar too high with past years' performances and won't win this year. Jordan had to clearly be the best player in a given year to win MVP and I think Lebron is sort of held to the same standard. Again, just my theory.

Russ - 32.1/10.5/10.0
Harden - 29.0/7.9/11.3
Kawhi - 26.3/6.0/3.4

Thunder 35-29 (7 seed in west)
Rockets 44-20 (3 seed in west)
Spurs 49-13 (2 seed in west)

PER
1) Russ 30.2
2) Kawhi 28.7
3) Harden 27.7

Real +/-
4) Russ 6.35
6) Kawhi 6.23
12) Harden 5.46

Between the three, I tend to think the Thunder would be worse off without Russ relative to the Rockets without Harden and the Spurs without Kawhi, but that's hard to prove.

I think all three still sort of control their own destiny:

-Russ would prob be the favorite if he averages the triple double for the full season and the Thunder stop sucking
-Harden would prob be the favorite if he continues his great play and pushes the Rockets into 57-60 win territory
-Kawhi could overtake both if the Spurs grab the 1 seed

At this very second I'm leaning toward Kawhi given how the Spurs are trending but I'm sure this will be fluid throughout the remainder of the season.

mazag08 said:

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Rockets fans will say Harden. SA fans will say Kawhi. Dallas and OKC fans will say Westbrook.

Personally, I think it's Westbrook. His team would be bottom 5 in the league without him. I think the Rockets and Spurs would both be somewhere in the 7-10 range if they lost Harden and Kawhi respectively. The numbers also overwhelmingly support Westbrook, but Kawhi is the better all around player since he is still a lights out defender.

Tough choice this year, but Westbrook is the definition of MVP.

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What the **** is that logic? I'm not voting for Westbrook..

I'd vote Kawhi

I think Russ gets it if he keeps the triple-double and they get 50 wins. Otherwise, Kawhi.

This could be the year the person with the most first place votes doesn't win with so many viable candidates.

Guitarsoup said:

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I think Russ gets it if he keeps the triple-double and they get 50 wins. Otherwise, Kawhi.

This could be the year the person with the most first place votes doesn't win with so many viable candidates.

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Thunder would have to go 15-3 the rest of the way to hit 50 wins. Given the way the Thunder have played recently, that's not gonna happen.

Agree that 50 wins would basically clinch it for Russ, though I think he'll still get strong consideration if he averages a triple double and the Thunder get 45+. But without the 50 win milestone, I think the cases for Harden/Kawhi are just as strong (if not stronger).

Rockets fan here and I'd vote Russ.

1961-1962 MVP Voting

1. Bill Russell 18.9/23.6/4.5
2. Wilt Chamberlain 50.4/25.7/2.4
3. Oscar Robertson 30.8/12.5/11.4

When Robertson had 'the season', he finished THIRD in MVP voting. Bill Russell won the MVP, had the best record in the league, and went on to win the championship (Robertson's team was eliminated in the first round).

I think people are putting too much into this triple-double hype, especially in a league where the offensive players have such a huge advantage. At the end of the day, winning is important and Russ just isn't doing that, at least not at the rate of typical MVP.

Westbrook: Crazy effort and production; he has clear separation from the pack on per 36 stats. In his 9th season with two seasons in the top 5 of voting people will start to think it's his turn. But, his team is tied for the 11th best record and at least right now is not finishing strong.

Harden: Super productive on offense and maybe the toughest cover, but it's going to be tough to win an MVP with his defensive reputation. Offense is weighed a lot more heavily, but I'm not sure voters will be able to overlook defense and general effort when his competitors are renowned for theirs.

Leonard: I'm a homer here, but he's one of two players that are top 5 at both ends of the court. He has several "MVP moments" where he took over the game on both ends in the fourth quarter or overtime to win. On a per 36 basis he's the weakest statistically, but his efficiency is outstanding and his team has the best record among MVP contenders.

Lebron: I'm not sure he has a chance, but he is the most valuable player. He's by far the most efficient and is great at pretty much everything, but he's also on a stacked team that is only 4th in the league standings.

My personal forced ranking is 1. Lebron, 2. Kawhi, 3. Westbrook, 4. Harden. My prediction is an extremely close race with Kawhi winning due to his lack of "deal breakers" (Westbrook - record; Lebron - record and voter fatigue; Harden - effort). Westbrook and Lebron round out the top three.

It blows my mind that people are actually comparing how Oscar finished in MVP voting fifty years ago thinking it will have the same result with Russ.

The other thing to weigh is this:

Likability.

LeBron has a lot of people that dislike him for various things. The Decision. The Whining. Using his stature to force moves/signings, etc.

Harden is disliked for the flopping/exaggerating and for the total lack of effort on defense.

Russ is disliked because of the heroball aspect and many blame him for Durant leaving. The NBA record for usage is 38% by Kobe. Shocking, I know. Russ' usage this year is 42%.

Kawhi. What is there to dislike?

Ultimately, I think that plays into the MVP voting some. And Kawhi did get 2nd place last year.

Bron could have been MVP every year for the last decade and it would be hard to argue against it. The biggest argument against him this year is that the Cavs don't look great [three teams with better records, Jazz and Celts just one game back in win column), but have a ton of talent [three different guys averaging over 20ppg] and Bron's defense is slipping. (Cavs are 22nd in DRTG and Bron is at a career worst 108.)

Stats from 1961 mean almost nothing. Oscar Robertson was one 3 guys on his team averaging more than 10 rebounds per game. Teams averaged about 108 shot attempts per game, compared to the 85 per game today. There were an average of 71.4 total rebounds per game, compared to 43.5 today. Guys were basically just running up and down the floor jacking up bad shots as fast as possible. The game was an absolute joke.

Seven Costanza said:

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Stats from 1961 mean almost nothing. Oscar Robertson was one 3 guys on his team averaging more than 10 rebounds per game. Teams averaged about 108 shot attempts per game, compared to the 85 per game today. There were an average of 71.4 total rebounds per game, compared to 43.5 today. Guys were basically just running up and down the floor jacking up bad shots as fast as possible. The game was an absolute joke.

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All the more reason for how ridiculous Russell Westbrook is.

Head Ninja In Charge said:

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Seven Costanza said:

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Stats from 1961 mean almost nothing. Oscar Robertson was one 3 guys on his team averaging more than 10 rebounds per game. Teams averaged about 108 shot attempts per game, compared to the 85 per game today. There were an average of 71.4 total rebounds per game, compared to 43.5 today. Guys were basically just running up and down the floor jacking up bad shots as fast as possible. The game was an absolute joke.

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All the more reason for how ridiculous Russell Westbrook is.

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Running up and down the floor jacking up bad shots is exactly what Westbrook does.

CactusThomas said:

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Head Ninja In Charge said:

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Seven Costanza said:

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Stats from 1961 mean almost nothing. Oscar Robertson was one 3 guys on his team averaging more than 10 rebounds per game. Teams averaged about 108 shot attempts per game, compared to the 85 per game today. There were an average of 71.4 total rebounds per game, compared to 43.5 today. Guys were basically just running up and down the floor jacking up bad shots as fast as possible. The game was an absolute joke.

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All the more reason for how ridiculous Russell Westbrook is.

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Running up and down the floor jacking up bad shots is exactly what Westbrook does.

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And here we go...

For the record I am the biggest Westbrook homer on this board, so obviously you know what my vote is, but if Leonard won I'd have no beef.

Crazy that this is the first game for Oladipo playing with the new guys.

Walt Bellamy averaged 31 ppg and 19 rbg in 1961 as a rookie. Wilt averaged 50 and 25.

1/3rd of the league's starters averaged more than 10 rebounds per game.

I will temper excitement because, well, see earlier in this post, the Spurs are on the back end of a B2B, and the Thunder's backs were against the wall after a terrible stretch in play, but it was nice to see the full squad play with acceptable effort tonight.

If OKC wins tonight, they will be 25-6 when Russ has a triple double, so that's a little more than just stat padding.

I posted in more detail in the Spurs thread, but the Thunder looked really good tonight. Tough to win without our two real point guards and Kawhi going out with an injury, but OKC still played a great game. That would have been a battle even at full strength.

When both these teams are at full strength the games are a blast. It's a good respectful rivalry.

Saw what you said about Roberson, he makes guys work for their points. He's an deserved All-NBA Defense guy, hope he gets some recognition this summer

Roberson doesn't deserve to even sniff an All Defensive team

Quote:

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It blows my mind that people are actually comparing how Oscar finished in MVP voting fifty years ago thinking it will have the same result with Russ.

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I'm not saying that it will have the same results. My point is that people are giving too much weight to the triple double, especially given position of Russ's team right now.

If Westbrook finishes the season 30/10.5/9.9 on the last day of the season, I think a lot of people who initially had him as a first selection would drop him down one spot, two spots, or even further. If voters change their selection based off of 0.10 assists/rebs, I don't think that player was an MVP to begin with.

I'm all ears....stats not good enough for you? Playing defense is more than just steals, blocks and obviously offense

Roberson is an excellent defender.

Enzo The Baker said:

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Roberson is an excellent defender.

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and I'll admit my bias, but I had the privilege of getting to sit in on a video session with Thunder assistant coaches two years ago, and they spent the first portion of the session specifically breaking down Roberson and the things he does defensively that an average NBA fan (including myself) would never realize. It was pretty eye opening (for me at least).

Pahdz said:

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Enzo The Baker said:

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Roberson is an excellent defender.

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and I'll admit my bias, but I had the privilege of getting to sit in on a video session with Thunder assistant coaches two years ago, and they spent the first portion of the session specifically breaking down Roberson and the things he does defensively that an average NBA fan (including myself) would never realize. It was pretty eye opening (for me at least).

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That sounds awesome. How were you able to sit in on this film session?

Maybe the Thunder need their own thread at this point...

Deluxe said:

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Maybe the Thunder need their own thread at this point...

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it never gets anywhere, i tried two seasons ago, it was just two of us talking back and forth lol

Thunder are 25-6 this year when Russ gets a triple double and 4-8 when he takes 30 or more shots. Not sure if there's any overlap between those stats, but the trend is very telling.

FWIW, he averaged 32 shots/game during the ugly four game losing streak.

It was a season ticket holder appreciation event (which I am not even one). My buddy's parents have seats and they let us, our wives and kids go because there was a bunch of kid stuff and other deals to interact with. They would rotate groups of players (typically about 4 or 5) between a fan Q&A station, shoot around on the floor with kids session, and a video session. I went to one of the video sessions alone (none of the rest of the party wanted to) and proceeded to watch 45 minutes of video along with a Q&A with Scott Brooks and players. Just so happened my group included Roberson, Nick Collison, Kendrick Perkins and freaking Kevin Durant. I actually got to ask KD a few questions about how they schemed against certain teams. They cycled players in one at a time and KD came in last and there was only about 20 of us in this private bar/restaurant with the lights dim and when he walked in you could hear everyone kinda start mummering "holy ****" to themselves. It was very cool and unexpected. Scott Brooks stayed and answered questions for what felt like an hour, he was very cool.

That sounds really cool. Rockets need to step their game up for us season ticket holders.

Pahdz said:

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It was a season ticket holder appreciation event (which I am not even one). My buddy's parents have seats and they let us, our wives and kids go because there was a bunch of kid stuff and other deals to interact with. They would rotate groups of players (typically about 4 or 5) between a fan Q&A station, shoot around on the floor with kids session, and a video session. I went to one of the video sessions alone (none of the rest of the party wanted to) and proceeded to watch 45 minutes of video along with a Q&A with Scott Brooks and players. Just so happened my group included Roberson, Nick Collison, Kendrick Perkins and freaking Kevin Durant. I actually got to ask KD a few questions about how they schemed against certain teams. They cycled players in one at a time and KD came in last and there was only about 20 of us in this private bar/restaurant with the lights dim and when he walked in you could hear everyone kinda start mummering "holy ****" to themselves. It was very cool and unexpected. Scott Brooks stayed and answered questions for what felt like an hour, he was very cool.

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I need to start hanging with you Pahdz