Well, obviously things fell apart this year. Parsons being hurt at the end and Rondo's implosion ended the Mavs chances.

First, a look back at the Rondo trade:

Mavs receive: Rajon Rondo
Mavs give up: Brandon Wright (a lack of size down low killed the Mavs in this Houston series), Dwight Powell (who?), Jae Crowder (he would have been useful), 2015 1st round pick (ouch), 2016 2nd round pick (Mavs can buy one).

Free agents: Tyson Chandler, Rajan Rondo, Monta Ellis (player option), Raymond Felton (player option), JJ Barea, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villaneuva, Amare Stoudamire, Al Farouq Aminu (player option)

Under contract: Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki, Devin Harris

The Mavs need: big men, a point guard.

Ideally, Ellis opts in with his player option (thinking he can get more money when the cap expands next year).

The Mavs need to make a big run at Lamarcus Aldridge. Dirk becomes the 6th man as a result. This would significantly help the defense.

What to do at point? I think Barea looked very good as the point guard. There are worse options but he fits Carlisle's system perfectly.

This leaves center. Chandler and Amare back would be idea but can everyone fit under the cap?

In the end, it will be interesting to see what happens. One of Felton or Harris need to go (both around 4.5 million a piece for marginal play). Lots of moves need to be made with limited salary available to cover everything.

Aminu's play in the playoffs made him quite a bit of extra $. He will opt out and get a biiiig raise

Probably right, but how much is the question. I don't think barea goes anywhere after what happened with the T-wolves.

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What to do at point? I think Barea looked very good as the point guard. There are worse options but he fits Carlisle's system perfectly.

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Barea is fine for a bench PG, but you don't want him running the point full time over a full season. He gets absolutely mauled defensively. Shooting .420/.323, he is not an efficient player at all. His box+/- is negative for his career. That means his teams generally do better when he is off the court than when he is on the court.

He can provide some instant offense and a change of pace off the bench, but that is pretty much his limit as a player.

Yes, great guy off the bench, and sometimes can play in crunch time if he is hot/right matchup. Not starter quality.
I would give Aminu about the midlevel exception, but he isnt really top 3 player money either.

So who at point? Realistically, the Mavs need:

1 or 2 centers (Chandler and Stoudemire are free agents)
1 power forward
1 or 2 guards (Ellis, Rondo, Barea are free agents)

The Jordan talk may mean Chandler could be gone. I can't see anyway both are fit under the cap and both are starters anyways. Can Chandler be a power forward, Jordan at center and Dirk as the 6th man?

The talk of Parsons possibly needing microfracture surgery is particularly concerning...just means Aminu is a must-sign.

What about Aldridge? Sounds like he wants to get back to Texas but the Lakers and Knicks can offer the max to 2 players.

And what happens to Ellis? How much will he command?

That still leaves a massive whole at point. Here's the list of free agents:

http://hoopshype.com/free_agency/point_guards_2015.htm

1. Goran Dragic (wants to stay in Miami)
2. Brandon Knight
3. Reggie Jackson
4. Rondo (gone, duh)
5. Patrick Beverley
6. Jeremy Lin (a more expensive Barea?)
7. Mo Williams
8. Aaron Brooks
9. Beno Udrih
10. Sergio Rodriguez (Spanish player coming over?)

(Hoops Hype lists Ellis as a shooting guard).

Out of that top 10, the only realistic options may be Knight, Beverley, Williams, Udrih and Rodriguez. Udrih looked alright in Memphis. Rodriguez may be an interesting, cheaper option.

IF we resign monta, then the pg just needs to be able to apace the d with good 3pt shooting and play defense above average.
probably gonna be a lot of changes on the team again.
I would like possibly starting lineup of
chandler-Aldridge- sf-monta-pg
with barea harris aminu off bench.
still a lot of holes in that. I got no idea, but it starts with Aldridge imo

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IF we resign monta, then the pg just needs to be able to apace the d with good 3pt shooting and play defense above average.
probably gonna be a lot of changes on the team again.
I would like possibly starting lineup of
chandler-Aldridge- sf-monta-pg
with barea harris aminu off bench.
still a lot of holes in that. I got no idea, but it starts with Aldridge imo

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Aldridge would be great...but where is Dirk in that lineup? And can the Mavs fit Aldridge (max), Ellis (8 figures) and Chandler under the cap with Dirk, Parsons, Harris, Aminu, backups and a pg?

Felton needs to go for sure...not worth the 4.5 million the Mavs are paying him. That cap space is necessary too.

Mavericks Salary Obligations (Cap ~63 million):


The Mavs will have about 23 million to work with this free agency if they pick up their player options on Al Farouq and Monta.

That's a max contract and then some before free agency.

Let's take a look at some Free Agency rules the Mavs can use this off-season to go over the cap:

Minimum Contracts: A team can sign players to minimum contracts that exceed the salary cap.
Bird Rights: The Mavs can re-sign players on the 2014-15 roster and exceed the salary cap. Bird rights are usually transferred to teams in trades as well if the Mavs did a sign-and-trade.


Assuming Ellis and Al pick up their POs, The Mavs need:
A PG
A PF
2 C

You have 23 million to fill three positions.

PG:
The PG market this offseason sucks. The top 3 guys are restricted and their teams will want to match any reasonable offer sheet. The guy I would most want is Reggie Jackson but the Pistons would match what the Mavs would be willing to throw that way so this market is not good for right now. I would just say the Mavs will have to live with starting Devin and re-signing J.J. to play backup PG.

Cap Space Used: 1 million(re-sign J.J. to minimum) (22 remaining)

PF:
If the Mavs wanted to sign LaMarcus, they would only be able to throw a max contract at him. A max contract for Aldridge would be around 18 million since he has played 9 years in the league.

If the Mavs don't get LaMarcus, their options are okay. As far as unrestricteds go, Paul Millsap and Josh Smith lead the way at the position. I would jump on the opportunity to sign Millsap for the right price and let Dirk move to backup. I've always liked his game and I think he would be a good fit in Dallas. He may want to stay in Atlanta but if the Hawks get bounced early he will probably be more open to jumping ship. Another option would be to sign a guy like Brandon Bass or Glen Davis as a backup to Dirk.

Cap Space Used (Aldridge): 18 mil (4 remaining)
Cap Space Used (Millsap): 11-13 mil (9-11 remaining)
Cap Space Used (Bass): 5-7 mil (15-17 remaining)

2 C w/ previous PF acquisitions:
If the Mavs signed Aldridge, they would be able to go after a guy worth around 4 million, unless they plan on playing Aldridge at C and Dirk at PF. They could also go with Marc Gasol for a max contract and sign a 4 mil PF or minimum contract guys. If they went with Millsap, they would have about 10 mil to spend on a starting C. They could go after a Restricted like Enes Kanter, but the Thunder might match because he played so well. That option seems unlikely. You could try to get Brandan Wright back for about 6 mil and make him your starter, and then sign Robin Lopez and make him your backup.

Cap Space Used (Aldridge and 2 minimum contracts): 0 Cap Space Used (Minimum Contracts can exceed the cap)
Cap Space Used (Millsap and Brandan Wright): 18 million total used (4 remaining)
Cap Space Used (Aldridge and 4 mil guy): 22 total used (0 remaining)
Cap Space Used (Gasol): 18 mil (4 mil remaining in other positions)

These are just some options the Mavericks have but they will have some room to maneuver if they wiggle out of their Felton PO and get the guys they desire. I'll come back and edit more of this later.

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The Mavs will have about 23 million to work with this free agency if they pick up their player options on Al Farouq and Monta.

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Doesn't work that way. It is Monta and AlFarouq's options, not the Mavs. Monta may take it. Al won't.

Dallas will be at ~42mm for six players if Monta takes his option so he can make more next year.

Then there are six cap holds at about 500k each, for another 3mm. So ~45mm used of ~66mm estimated.

So 21mm to fill those six to nine roster spots. And they can't go over the cap to do it because you can't use your cap space and exceptions to go over the cap.

Dirk supposedly willing to take on the 6th man role...

http://espn.go.com/dallas/nba/story/_/id/12788412/dirk-nowitzki-says-willing-transition-sixth-man-dallas-mavericks

That was fairly common at my HS and that was 10 years ago.

I knew they were PO, what I meant by that sentence was if Monta and Al Farouq use them. The Mavs pick up those two because of them taking their PO, but I just saw now that Al is opting out.

Regardless, the Mavs have about 21 mil in cap space to sign FA. They can use minimum contracts to go over the cap, and they can re-sign current players over the cap if they've played 3 years with the team w/o being waived, etc. or have had their rights transferred to the Mavs via trade. The Mavs can also use the 3 mil/3yr MLE on someone if they need to when they are over the cap, even with the luxury tax they paid last season.

The only question I have for you regarding the PO is about Felton. Can the Mavs do anything if he wants that 4 mil and picks up his option, or can they turn him away?

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The only question I have for you regarding the PO is about Felton. Can the Mavs do anything if he wants that 4 mil and picks up his option, or can they turn him away?

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I wish the Mavs could turn him away but I don't think that can. Unless he gets a better offer elsewhere, which I don't see happening, they're stuck with him.

No way Aminu takes his option. He's going to get fairly big money. There is a chance Ellis takes it bc he may think he can get a bigger contract when the cap rises. But given his age, I'd be surprised if he opts in.

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No way Aminu takes his option. He's going to get fairly big money. There is a chance Ellis takes it bc he may think he can get a bigger contract when the cap rises. But given his age, I'd be surprised if he opts in.

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Agree with this. How big realistically for Aminu? 5-6 mil? I don't think one playoff series will jump him to 8+ a year.

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That was fairly common at my HS and that was 10 years ago.

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I've read this post 10 times and still have no idea what the **** you are talking about. Don't you have a Spurs thread to post in?

I'd give aminu 4mil, but I don't think he has proved enough yet for more. Some team will probably pay him more though.

With the cap going up next year, I think a lot of teams are going to be overpaying guys this year.

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With the cap going up next year, I think a lot of teams are going to be overpaying guys this year.

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That's definitely plausible. But, I've also wondered how many guys with a player option will opt in this year in hopes of a huge pay day next season? Kevin Love comes to mind. He stands to earn 40+ mil over six years for opting into an extra year with Cleveland, then signing a 5 year max deal with them. With a sign and trade, he could go anywhere.

Maybe so. I still don't think Love is worth the money. I didn't think it when he was putting up stupid numbers all alone in Minnesota. I don't think Love is worth near the max.

Why would Felton opt out? No way he gets $4M on the open market. He may not even get signed.

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That was fairly common at my HS and that was 10 years ago.

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I've read this post 10 times and still have no idea what the **** you are talking about. Don't you have a Spurs thread to post in?

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I got distracted and thought I was in another thread. That's what happens when you let work get in the way of your TexAgs.

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Why would Felton opt out? No way he gets $4M on the open market. He may not even get signed.

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Speculatively, perhaps because he doesn't feel wanted in Dallas. You're completely right, his value right now is less than the 4 mil he currently makes. He's crazy to opt out.

My question is, are the value of max contracts going to go up with the increase in the salary cap? Because now teams can have about 3 max contracts on their roster to meet the cap, but with the jump going from 66 to 90, will that allow teams to have 4 max contracts with 10 mil left, or will the value of max contracts basically nullify the increase in the cap? Same goes for all players if you think about it. Does it work like inflation or will the value of contracts remain fairly similar under this CBA?

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My question is, are the value of max contracts going to go up with the increase in the salary cap? Because now teams can have about 3 max contracts on their roster to meet the cap, but with the jump going from 66 to 90, will that allow teams to have 4 max contracts with 10 mil left, or will the value of max contracts basically nullify the increase in the cap? Same goes for all players if you think about it. Does it work like inflation or will the value of contracts remain fairly similar under this CBA?

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Max contacts are a factor of the salary cap. 25, 30 or 35% of the cap.

Aren't max contracts based on percentage of cap?

Carlisle puts his home up for sale.

?

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No way Aminu takes his option. He's going to get fairly big money. There is a chance Ellis takes it bc he may think he can get a bigger contract when the cap rises. But given his age, I'd be surprised if he opts in.

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Agree with this. How big realistically for Aminu? 5-6 mil? I don't think one playoff series will jump him to 8+ a year.

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He was actually pretty good in the regular season too, he just didn't get a ton of playing time. That's my one beef with Carlisle. He never plays rookies or new players much, even when it's obvious they would help the team.

I honestly don't have a clue about Aminu. I would guess in the 5-6 mil range, but I also wouldn't be shocked if some team that needed a defensive stopper and who thinks Aminu could be a solid 3 and D guy offered him 8 million. He's still young, so some teams could offer large on the hopes that he can still improve some given the right opportunity.

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With the cap going up next year, I think a lot of teams are going to be overpaying guys this year.

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That's definitely plausible. But, I've also wondered how many guys with a player option will opt in this year in hopes of a huge pay day next season? Kevin Love comes to mind. He stands to earn 40+ mil over six years for opting into an extra year with Cleveland, then signing a 5 year max deal with them. With a sign and trade, he could go anywhere.

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Yea, this makes sense for Love. But I think it only makes sense for young guys (26-27 and under). For guys like Ellis, I think he will take the guaranteed big money contract this year. At his age, it's a big risk to opt in. If he has a bad year or gets hurt, no team is going to pay him big money the next year.

Also, even if someone like Ellis wants to wait until the cap jumps, they could still opt out and just sign a 1 year deal with a player option for year 2 or something like that. Or just a one year deal with no option. I'm sure Ellis will command more than 8 million for next year on the open market. So I don't see any way he opts in.

Raymond Felton will pick up $3.9M player option

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Raymond Felton will pick up $3.9M player option

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****. 4 mil for a guy that won't see the court.

He's going to have to see the court most likely. It'll probably be Harris/Barea/Felton at PG if the Mavs want to go after LaMarcus.

If they don't get LaMarcus, I would like to see them go after a combination of Millsap and Bass/Robin Lopez. Or get DeAndre and a min contract guy and wait for the floodgates to open next season. Of course a lot of the Mavs' flexibility will hinge on Monta and Al picking up their PO or not and if the Mavs want to re-sign those guys.