deadbq03 said:

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Yeah at this point, I think you can mark West Ham as safe too. I know it's mathematically prudent to keep them on, but man, I'd honestly be surprised if even one of the teams below them can actually go out and get 5 (or 6) points and pass them… 3 of those turds doing it seems impossible.

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It really is a cripple fight. Sports books have to be loving the action, though.

deadbq03 said:

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Yeah at this point, I think you can mark West Ham as safe too. I know it's mathematically prudent to keep them on, but man, I'd honestly be surprised if even one of the teams below them can actually go out and get 5 (or 6) points and pass them… 3 of those turds doing it seems impossible.

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Before giving West Ham a free pass, take a look at their next 3 matches….If they go 0-3 then they could be right in the middle of a battle, with Leeds and Leicester being their last 2 opponents. Things could get tense for the Hammers still!

Aston94 said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Yeah at this point, I think you can mark West Ham as safe too. I know it's mathematically prudent to keep them on, but man, I'd honestly be surprised if even one of the teams below them can actually go out and get 5 (or 6) points and pass them… 3 of those turds doing it seems impossible.

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Before giving West Ham a free pass, take a look at their next 3 matches….If they go 0-3 then they could be right in the middle of a battle, with Leeds and Leicester being their last 2 opponents. Things could get tense for the Hammers still!

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My thought is that if they scratch a point against either Manchester, then you figure they draw (at best) against Brentford. But then they only need 3 points between Liecester and/or Leeds. If the fixtures were swapped, I'd be concerned. But Leeds in London and away at Liecester seems ideal.

I still think 37 is the number this season

Leeds 'strongly considering' Sam Allardyce as Javi Gracia 'increasingly likely to be sacked'

It took us a while but looks like we might finally get there.

(I don't want to see Americans get relegated but my goodness Leeds deserve it)

Good points, I hadn't looked hard at the matches.

Leicester at Fulham is huge.

If Leeds are lucky, Spurs will have nothing to play for at the bitter end. Or maybe Spurs will be like me my last semester when I already had a job lined up and just needed to graduate, so I didn't give a rip yet ended up getting my best GPA. That seems like a Spursy thing to do.

But even with all the others' schedule opportunities, I could see West Ham finish at 34pts and make it in at #17. It really is a cripple fight.

But then oddly enough, they could also make Europa League cause they win the ECL. I totally forgot they were still in that shambolic competition until I looked at their schedule. It is quite the double-edged sword. Qualifying for Europa would be a huge boon, but their fixture congestion is extremely high down the stretch.

The more I think about it, the more I want to see a Championship team in Europa League, so I'm gonna root against my own prediction and hope West Ham drops, but wins the ECL.

Leeds sack their much-hated Director of Football.

Leeds United can confirm Victor Orta has left the club by mutual consent

— Leeds United (@LUFC) May 2, 2023

FILO505 said:

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Aston94 said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Yeah at this point, I think you can mark West Ham as safe too. I know it's mathematically prudent to keep them on, but man, I'd honestly be surprised if even one of the teams below them can actually go out and get 5 (or 6) points and pass them… 3 of those turds doing it seems impossible.

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Before giving West Ham a free pass, take a look at their next 3 matches….If they go 0-3 then they could be right in the middle of a battle, with Leeds and Leicester being their last 2 opponents. Things could get tense for the Hammers still!

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My thought is that if they scratch a point against either Manchester, then you figure they draw (at best) against Brentford. But then they only need 3 points between Liecester and/or Leeds. If the fixtures were swapped, I'd be concerned. But Leeds in London and away at Liecester seems ideal.

I still think 37 is the number this season

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I have my doubts about the Hammers scratching a point from either Manchester club. They might get a disinterested Brentford side, that would be the likely spot for a point or three, but if they lose the next three and go into Leeds and Leicester matches in a winner stays up match, look out!

All emergency glass has been broken this season. Big Sam is in at Leeds.

Furlock Bones said:

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All emergency glass has been broken this season. Big Sam is in at Leeds.

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Gracia hire was terrible from the beginning. Why fire Marsch if you don't have a replacement set? If you were going to let go of Marsch why do it right after the transfer window closed?

Just a string of really bad decisions has gotten the club to this point. I actually think the Allardyce hiring, while late and desperate, was their only choice.

They let Jesse spend money in January bringing in more of his guys then fired him after 1 match. It's just amazing levels of incompetence.

So Leeds will go from all out press and no defense to bunker and play for a point. All without any players who actually can play defense.

That will work out spectacularly well.

You can smell the desperation across the Atlantic.

Dre_00 said:

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Remaining games of the bottom 5:

Leeds: @City, Newcastle, @West Ham, Tottenham
Forest: Southampton, @Chelsea, Arsenal, @Palace
Leicester: Everton, @Fulham, Liverpool, @Newcastle, West Ham
Everton: @Leicester, @Brighton, City, @Wolves, Bournemouth
Southampton: @Forest, Fulham, @Brighton, Liverpool

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Here's my prediction for the above remaining matches:

Leeds: L, L, L, Tie
Forest: W, L, L, L
Leister: L, L, L, Tie
Everton: L, L, L, Tie
Southampton: L, L, L, L

This contradicts my previous opinion that Everton would pull a rabbit out of the hat. They needed the win yesterday for a chance and didn't close the deal, so I think they are cooked. Especially looking at their final 4. That leaves 3 teams fighting to stay up, 4 if West Ham gags somewhere along the way.

My predicted finish:

Place Club Games Played Points
15. West Ham 33 34 @City L, ManU L, @Brentford T, Leeds T, @Leicester L (36 Points)
16. Leicester City 34 30 @Fulham T, Liverpool L, @Newcastle L, West Ham W (34 Points)
17. Leeds United 34 30 @City L, Newcastle T, @West Ham T, Tottenham T (33 Points)
18. Nottingham Forest 34 30 Southampton W, @Chelsea L, Arsenal L, @Palace T (34 Points)
19. Everton 34 29 @Brighton L, City L, @Wolves T, Bournemouth W (33 Points)
20. Southampton 34 24 @Forest L, Fulham T, @Brighton L, Liverpool L (25 Points)

So I have my bottom three as Leeds, Everton and Southampton, but the margin is going to be very, very close.

As an aside, Man City play 3 of their remaining 6 matches against the bottom 5, so go ahead and send the trophy back to Manchester.

So many deserving teams. It's a shame only 3 can go down.

I'll play:

Place Club Games Played Points
15. West Ham 33 34 @City L, ManU L, @Brentford L, Leeds W, @Leicester L (37 Points)
16. Leicester City 34 30 @Fulham L, Liverpool L, @Newcastle L, West Ham W (33 Points)
17. Leeds United 34 30 @City L, Newcastle L, @West Ham L, Tottenham L (30 Points)
18. Nottingham Forest 34 30 Southampton W, @Chelsea L, Arsenal L, @Palace L (33 Points)
19. Everton 34 29 @Brighton L, City L, @Wolves T, Bournemouth W (33 Points)
20. Southampton 34 24 @Forest L, Fulham T, @Brighton L, Liverpool L (25 Points)

Southampton, Leeds, and Forest go down. Forest goes down on GD between Leicester, Everton and Forest.

Forest really needs to pick up a point after a Southampton win, or I think they're cooked based on the horrific goal differential.

Wednesday

Manchester City v. West Ham (2pm, Etihad Stadium, USA Network). There is one midweek game that involves a relegation club as West Ham travel the the Etihad tomorrow for a 2pm kickoff against Manchester City. City come in absolutely rolling, having won 8 EPL matches in a row and with an 11 match unbeaten run. They are not going to let up either, as City currently lead Arsenal by one point, with a game in hand, for the EPL Title. West Ham are close to safety, but probably need to claim 3 more points to be absolutely sure of their spot in the EPL for next year. I am sure a point would suit the Hammers just fine tomorrow.

Winning the lottery would suit me just fine as well, but I think both the Hammers and I will be disappointed. (Note: I don't play the lottery, so West Ham have a slightly higher chance of success)

Can we make an exception and relegate this Chelsea team?

jeffk said:

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Can we make an exception and relegate this Chelsea team?

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No way the rest of the EPL teams will vote for that

Chelsea should be grateful they have 39 points rather than 29 right now because otherwise they would probably be the most talented team to get sent down ever.

Not sure how true, but I'm seeing tweets that Big Sam is getting a base salary of 500k and a bonus of 2.5MM if they stay up.

If he's capable of making it happen, they've certainly given him a pretty nice incentive.

Seeing the same. My favorite response was "so just the 500k then."

Yeah those threads were fun.

Work-family-life are going to keep me away from relegation discussion this weekend.

I apologize, talk amongst yourselves and have a great weekend.

Leeds still struggling with defense even under big Sam, down 2-0 at half to Man City.

Big Sam is going to pocket a cool half mil for a month of doing nothing but losing. It's a great gig if you can get it. J fact it's not even a month. 4 compressed games.

Relegation watchers knew Leeds would claim 0 points v City. They're at the mercy of other fellow relegation zone clubs and desperation in their remaining matches that includes Newcastle lol. They're effed.

Leeds makes a game of it, but falls 2-1

Aston94 said:

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Leeds makes a game of it, but falls 2-1

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I think Sam is going to make an impact. Not sure they survive the drop but I think todays game shows he atleast helped to tighten up the defense. Lord know they need it!

In case you haven't been paying attention, on the promotion side Burnley and Sheffield have promotion secured. Vincent Kompany led Burnley had an incredible season.

Luton and Boro have secured a seat in the playoffs with Coventry and Milwall currently in 5th and 6th. Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn are all still in the running depending on how today's games shake out.

Reading, Blackpool and Wigan have all guaranteed relegation.

Only games that really matter too.much today:

Boro v Coventry
Milwall v Blackburn

On the League one side, Plymouth and Ipswich gained promotion back to Championship and Wednesday, Barnsley, Bolton and Peterborough all finished in the playoffs. Playoffs start on Friday.

MK Dons, Morecamve, Accrington and Forest Green were all relegated to League 2.

Leyton Orient, Stevenage and Northampton were all promoted to League 1 with Stockport, Carlisle, Salford and Bradford City filling rhe playoff bracket.

Hartlepool and Rochdale are going down to non-league football. Hopefully the other guy from Two Guys, a Girl and a Pizza Place can take an interest in one of them.

Thanks for the update, been meaning to do that as well, but have lacked the time.

ChipFTAC01 said:

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In case you haven't been paying attention, on the promotion side Burnley and Sheffield have promotion secured. Vincent Kompany led Burnley had an incredible season.

Luton and Boro have secured a seat in the playoffs with Coventry and Milwall currently in 5th and 6th. Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn are all still in the running depending on how today's games shake out.

Reading, Blackpool and Wigan have all guaranteed relegation.

Only games that really matter too.much today:

Boro v Coventry
Milwall v Blackburn

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Man Reading and Wigan have both fallen off a cliff

gougler08 said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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In case you haven't been paying attention, on the promotion side Burnley and Sheffield have promotion secured. Vincent Kompany led Burnley had an incredible season.

Luton and Boro have secured a seat in the playoffs with Coventry and Milwall currently in 5th and 6th. Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn are all still in the running depending on how today's games shake out.

Reading, Blackpool and Wigan have all guaranteed relegation.

Only games that really matter too.much today:

Boro v Coventry
Milwall v Blackburn

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Man Reading and Wigan have both fallen off a cliff

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Yeah, disappointing to see. I keep an eye on both as my wife's uncle lives in Reading and Jamie Carragher's son James plays for Wigan. It's a tough league.

ChipFTAC01 said:

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In case you haven't been paying attention, on the promotion side Burnley and Sheffield have promotion secured. Vincent Kompany led Burnley had an incredible season.

Luton and Boro have secured a seat in the playoffs with Coventry and Milwall currently in 5th and 6th. Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn are all still in the running depending on how today's games shake out.

Reading, Blackpool and Wigan have all guaranteed relegation.

Only games that really matter too.much today:

Boro v Coventry
Milwall v Blackburn

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I'm a bit of a closet Blackburn fan back from when first started watching the EPL. After all the financial mismanagement it's nice to see them so close to being back. That said, I don't see any way that their roster is truly ready for the EPL and I doubt they have the funding to get it there this summer, so it may be best if they have another year in the Championship to see if they can improve enough to make a guaranteed promotion spot vs playoff.