**** Mexico

Herc brought up the point that Pulisic has traditionally played well against Mexico.

Aston94 said:

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Down with LLL Tri!!!!!

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jeffk said:

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So to bring a topic of discussion over to this thread from the other one, what are we thinking as far as squad rotation from Mexico to Panama games. (I really don't think it's a question of whether it'll happen, but how many players and who - we've rotated our line-up every window so far and I don't see that changing.)

It's sort of a misnomer to say we'd play a B team or an A team - more of a A1 vs A2. A couple of key guys rotated to managed fitness and reduce risk of missing out due to card accumulation. As far as needing a win in either match - for qualification purposes, it's far more critical to beat Panama than to take a point in Mexico. Beating Panama is a six point swing against a team that could challenge us for a spot in the top 3-4. Mexico I think will take one of those spots regardless of how our game tonight goes.

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If we rest our starters against Mexico and then go out and drop points against Panama, we absolutely deserve to miss the WC. Too many of y'all are acting like if we rest our starters tonight then the 3 points against Panama are in the bag. Never concede an opportunity to get points. Loser mentality.



I also agree with another poster in the other thread - Adams is far more valuable tonight than he will be against Panama, where we should dominate possession. I'd risk the yellow-card suspension. At worst, he gets it out of the way and will be available should we need to get a result in our last game.

Won't today be the last time many of these guys get a chance to play in Azteca? There wont be much of Hex for next WCQ because of the auto qualifiers. If I'm a starting XI-quality player, I want to be on the field tonight.

Plus US and Panama winning today puts the pressure back on Mexico.

http://www.americansoccernow.com/articles/potential-final-usmnt-mexico-qualifier-comes-at-a-critical-time-for-both-teams

I'd be happy with tgat lineup

Yeah, in my mind it's not so much ceding tonight in hopes of being fresh for Panama, but calculating out which two lineups give us the best chance to get a result both tonight AND Sunday. And they won't be the same 11 (I'd bet anyway). I actually agree with playing Adams tonight. Maybe even having a shorter leash on Pulisic and a few other key guys tonight.

I wonder if Gregg sees Ferreira and Arriola as a package deal. They've been playing pretty well together so far this season

The whole Adams thing really gets me. Do you want to risk losing him for 1 game or do you want risk losing him for 2 games because you choose to sit him.

That makes no sense in any way.

Because winning at home against Panama is the single biggest thing we can do in this window to qualify. Its the most important game.
I do understand the point of view of the other side of the argument though, and it does make more sense than I initially thought.
I always thought we should try to get a result in Mexico, and wasnt saying we should just run out scrubs against them. I just think if we win at home and that win is against Panama, that is the single best result we need from these last 3 games. So i would want to keep that in mind with any decisions we make at Mexico.

what is our historical record at home versus Panama? Funny how everyone talks about the lack of success away to Mex and CR, but no one gives the opposite credit to the play at home

I dont have the exact data, but we have apparently struggled playing teams the 2nd time around this WCQ window.

No the biggest thing we can do is get results before we got to CR. That's a fact. So you play to win the game.

Furlock Bones said:

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No the biggest thing we can do is get results before we got to CR. That's a fact. So you play to win the game.

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Beating Panama we gain 3 pts and deprive them of 3 pts. Not really a fan of just using catch phrases instead of discussing, but really the goal is to qualify not win an individual game.
I do completely agree with you, I would not feel good at all going into the costa rica game needing points.
I'd prefer to at least tie in Mexico and Win at home vs Panama, then costa rica 99.9% doesn't matter.

Simplest #USMNT scenarios to qualify for the World Cup...

🇺🇸 Magic number is officially 5 points

🇺🇸 In tonight with a win, Panama loss vs Honduras, Costa Rica draw/loss vs Canada

🇺🇸 Regardless of tonight's result, in with a win vs Panama Sunday + Costa Rica dropping any points

— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) March 24, 2022

Nothing else has come up in the news so why not discuss it a bit again.

Panama is on 17 and we are on 21.
If we beat Panama, the most they can end with is 23, and the least we can end on is 24. They are automatically behind us.


The only scenarios where Costa Rica gets to 24 Pts or more are the following.
They win all 3 games > 25. We only beat panama and finish on 24

Other scenarios:
They win 2 games and tie one > 23. We only beat Panam and finish on 24
They win 2 game and tie one(us) > 23. We beat Panama and tie Costa Rica and finish on 25.

So Costa Rica would have to beat Canada and USA at home and El Salvador on the road to potentially qualify, in the scenario where we beat Panama at home. This is also the only scenario where we don't automatically qualify in 3rd or higher if we beat Panama at home.


If we beat Mexico and then lose to Panama, Panama can finish at 26 with 3 wins. We would be sitting on 25 and needing a pt @Costa Rica to tie and win tie breaker for 3rd.


now if we beat Mexico and Tie Panama, then Panama can only get to 24, and we would be on 25.


So, I personally find beating Panama at home the thing that increases our % to qualify the most.
I can see a strong point for playing to beat Mexico



In summation, all of this could not matter, and crazy results could happen in the last 3 games concacaf style. Mexico Only beats us, we lose all our games. Panama and Costa Rica both win all their games and Canada, Panama, and Costa Rica qualify.

Stil fun to talk about

PatAg said:

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Nothing else has come up in the news so why not discuss it a bit again.

Panama is on 17 and we are on 21.
If we beat Panama, the most they can end with is 23, and the least we can end on is 24. They are automatically behind us.


The only scenarios where Costa Rica gets to 24 Pts or more are the following.
They win all 3 games > 25. We only beat panama and finish on 24

Other scenarios:
They win 2 games and tie one > 23. We only beat Panam and finish on 24
They win 2 game and tie one(us) > 23. We beat Panama and tie Costa Rica and finish on 25.

So Costa Rica would have to beat Canada and USA at home and El Salvador on the road to potentially qualify, in the scenario where we beat Panama at home. This is also the only scenario where we don't automatically qualify in 3rd or higher if we beat Panama at home.


If we beat Mexico and then lose to Panama, Panama can finish at 26 with 3 wins. We would be sitting on 25 and needing a pt @Costa Rica to tie and win tie breaker for 3rd.


now if we beat Mexico and Tie Panama, then Panama can only get to 24, and we would be on 25.


So, I personally find beating Panama at home the thing that increases our % to qualify the most.
I can see a strong point for playing to beat Mexico



In summation, all of this could not matter, and crazy results could happen in the last 3 games concacaf style. Mexico Only beats us, we lose all our games. Panama and Costa Rica both win all their games and Canada, Panama, and Costa Rica qualify.

Stil fun to talk about

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Well that would be a very sad **** show of events

I will say, I think this group of players has the mindset that they want to go and win at Mexico.
So I would not be surprised at all to see our best 11 available out there tonight.

Love the discussion.

It's worth mentioning that having 5 subs available allows a lot of flexibility.

If we come out guns blazing with our best 11, and we get 2-0 by halftime, I'd absolutely advocate taking some dudes off either at halftime or most certainly by 60'.

Or vice versa, if we come out with an A/B team, and we've held on to a draw at the 75' mark, bring in the studs and push for the W.

Lots of ways to skin this cat.

tysker said:

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what is our historical record at home versus Panama? Funny how everyone talks about the lack of success away to Mex and CR, but no one gives the opposite credit to the play at home

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Historical USMNT WCQ:
@ MEX 0-13-3
PAN 4-0-0
@ CRC 0-9-1

deadbq03 said:

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Love the discussion.

It's worth mentioning that having 5 subs available allows a lot of flexibility.

If we come out guns blazing with our best 11, and we get 2-0 by halftime, I'd absolutely advocate taking some dudes off either at halftime or most certainly by 60'.

Or vice versa, if we come out with an A/B team, and we've held on to a draw at the 75' mark, bring in the studs and push for the W.

Lots of ways to skin this cat.

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That's a good topic, not just how we start the game will matter. Gregg's in game choices will be impactful as always.

Regardless of how I have the forwards ranked, I think Pefok makes more sense again Mexico. Just based off the highlights I have seen with his club, and how he is scoring goals, I could see him having more success in the box off of crosses than Ferreira.

PatAg said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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No the biggest thing we can do is get results before we got to CR. That's a fact. So you play to win the game.

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Beating Panama we gain 3 pts and deprive them of 3 pts. Not really a fan of just using catch phrases instead of discussing, but really the goal is to qualify not win an individual game.
I do completely agree with you, I would not feel good at all going into the costa rica game needing points.
I'd prefer to at least tie in Mexico and Win at home vs Panama, then costa rica 99.9% doesn't matter.

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i find playing for the tie to be analogous to the prevent defense which more often than not prevents your team from closing out a game. to me, the biggest discussion has been around Adams yellow card.

i want Adams to play in a minimum of 2 games not a minimum of 1 game. if we hold out Adams tonight and he gets a yellow against panama, then we are in a situation where we still need a point in another environment where we don't have any historical success. i want Adams there.

Quote:

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i find playing for the tie to be analogous to the prevent defense which more often than not prevents your team from closing out a game.

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I'm here. Playing 'not to lose' with the B team defense in Azteca seems like a sure fire way to lose 3-0 or worse.

exactly my thought. lest we also forget that Mexico is not playing well either.

Muck Fexico!!! Let's GO, Put0s!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Furlock Bones said:

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PatAg said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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No the biggest thing we can do is get results before we got to CR. That's a fact. So you play to win the game.

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Beating Panama we gain 3 pts and deprive them of 3 pts. Not really a fan of just using catch phrases instead of discussing, but really the goal is to qualify not win an individual game.
I do completely agree with you, I would not feel good at all going into the costa rica game needing points.
I'd prefer to at least tie in Mexico and Win at home vs Panama, then costa rica 99.9% doesn't matter.

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i find playing for the tie to be analogous to the prevent defense which more often than not prevents your team from closing out a game. to me, the biggest discussion has been around Adams yellow card.

i want Adams to play in a minimum of 2 games not a minimum of 1 game. if we hold out Adams tonight and he gets a yellow against panama, then we are in a situation where we still need a point in another environment where we don't have any historical success. i want Adams there.

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No one is saying play for the tie, we are saying to prioritize the Panama game.
There are definitely pros and cons to both scenarios regarding Adams. I have come around on playing him, as I do agree that we 'should' be good play Acosta at the 6 against Panama and I think Adams could have more of an impact against Mexico.

But when you look at the this qualifying window as a whole, it is just a fact that the Panama game is more important. When you look at what it will take to qualify, and the various probabilities for all the outcomes of the games being played.
That doesn't mean going all out to win at Mexico would be a mistake, either. This isnt Pardon the Interruption where we have to shout extreme opinions at each other, or speak in cliches. There is room for nuance.

I want to go for the win tonight but I think you gotta keep Reyna out of the starting lineup given his recent injury history. Save that for 60 minute sub + Panama full 90

I like going with Pulisic-Pepi-Weah (sub pefok for goals late if necessary - Pefok starts the other two games. This game is personal for Pepi and I think his better link up play is too important at least to start).

De La Torre-Accosta-Musah (Adams and Reyna as subs - Accosta has been very good against Mexico, he also brings great set piece service as of late.)

Robinson-Zimmerman-Robinson-Yedlin

Hovarth

That's my team.

Also we need to play Reyna in the midfield, especially without Weston.

LFG!

Mexico? Is this the same country where a few weeks ago a bunch of soccer fans killed each other in the stands?

Not defending those idiots but did anyone die? Seems like the reports of 10+ deaths were never validated.

Let's go boys!

Yeah, they weren't ever confirmed by any official sources in Mexico. Take that for what it's worth.