2025 Game by Game Predictions

Here's a neat breakdown week to week using a statistical model to best gauge the overall record. The model favors A&M a lot and it all hinges on week 3 against Notre Dame. Check it out!

7-6

Texas 8&4

It's just a link to my substack. It's a neat deep dive using autoregressive models.

9-3 with road losses at Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas, just like the Power Rating Metric model.

Richleau12 said:

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2025 Game by Game Predictions

Here's a neat breakdown week to week using a statistical model to best gauge the overall record. The model favors A&M a lot and it all hinges on week 3 against Notre Dame. Check it out!

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Please erect a paywall. Thanks…

SpreadsheetAg

8-5

Well, the model suggests a significant drop off in talent for South Carolina on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind, on a pure talent level, A&M is a top 10 team. South Carolina is a top 20 team and the model suggests they regress to a 7-5 record. In essence, they peaked last year.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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9-3 with road losses at Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas, just like the Power Rating Metric model.

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My thoughts.. other than im feeling Notre Dame might be 50/50..?

FDT 1999 said:

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This person's "model" has A&M at 9-3 as most probable with 10-2 being 2nd most probable. Seems like the model hasn't factored in A&M's ability to sh*t the bed.

Interesting that they show an 82% win probability against South Carolina after they boat-raced us last year. Did SC graduate the whole team last year?

My prediction is 8-5 with either at 8-4 and lose the bowl game or 7-5 and win the bowl game.

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Wash, rinse, repeat. And the Texas 8&4 jokes continue

FDT 1999 said:

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This person's "model" has A&M at 9-3 as most probable with 10-2 being 2nd most probable. Seems like the model hasn't factored in A&M's ability to sh*t the bed.

Interesting that they show an 82% win probability against South Carolina after they boat-raced us last year. Did SC graduate the whole team last year?

My prediction is 8-5 with either at 8-4 and lose the bowl game or 7-5 and win the bowl game.

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We are playing South Carolina at home instead of on the road, and that's the biggest difference. I think South Carolina will be our toughest home game. We will be coming off a tough road game at Missouri, and South Carolina will be coming off a bye week. However, we are 5-0 in home games against South Carolina, including the last 3 home wins by 13+ points each. The South Carolina game could be the difference between going into the Texas game with an 8-3 or 9-2 record.

Last year, South Carolina finished 9-4 because of 4 road wins at Kentucky, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Clemson, but their road schedule will be much tougher this year. I think South Carolina will finish between 6-6 to 8-4 with likely road losses to Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M and swing home games against Alabama and Clemson.

My prediction is 9-3 with losses to Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas. Winning a bowl game to finish 10-3 for our first 10+ win season since 2012 would be great.

8-4 with another inexcusable bowl loss to finish 8-5. Until proven otherwise. Done with having any expectations on this underperforming program.

UTSA - W
USU - W
ND - L
Auburn - W
MSU - W
Florida - L
Arkansas - W
LSU - L
Mizzou - L
SC - W
Samford - W
Texas - L

Why do you have Missouri as a loss?

NoahAg said:

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UTSA - W
USU - W
ND - L
Auburn - L
MSU - W
Florida - L
Arkansas - L
LSU - L
Mizzou - L
SC - W
Samford - W
t.u. - L

5-7

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Oddly no, the model really thinks South Carolina is going to nose dive this year and revert back to their old selves. The toughest home game, but not by much, will be Florida. That's where scheme comes into play. Our defense is perfectly built to stifle a team like Florida whose feast or famine approach will create very long drives and multiple possibilities for failure to extend drives. South Carolina is in a similar boat but with a significant drop off in talent.

The most interesting game on this schedule and the one I think will make or break A&M's success on forging their way to the tournament will be Notre Dame. Believe it or not, on paper, A&M has the most talent between the two. A&M is ranked tenth while Notre Dame is ranked 12th. Not a very wide gap between the two teams so it comes down to scheme, turnovers and performance.

The scheme A&M runs on defense is not the greatest for what Notre Dame runs on offense. That being said, as we saw last year, we were average quarterback play away from winning that game. Further, we now have multiple dynamic running backs to attack Notre Dame in different ways. Look to Reed extending his drives with his legs as well and our offensive line playing a pivotal role in keeping their defensive line at bay.

Notre Dame is replacing key figures on their offense and defense, notably their QB and key members of their defensive line and linebacker. Similarly, A&M is also starting a completely new defensive line. There are two ways to look at that however, are the guys you are replacing going to be more or less productive than the guys who were there previous? Judging by the lack of meaningful production from the Aggie defensive line, it could just be a stalemate, or it could highlight something else. Perhaps A&M's supremely talented 3 defensive linemen looked good on paper, got drafted highly for their athletic prowess but are less productive college players?


That game will tell the tale. I look for folks like Rylan Kennedy and Cashius Howell to have a massive impact on this game. It's still a coin flip game, but a strip sack, or a tipped pass int can mean the difference between a win or a loss in this game.

annie88 said:

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11-1

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And just like that, 5-7 seems like the most sane prediction on this thread.

vander54 said:

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Why do you have Missouri as a loss?

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A better question is why does he have SC as a win

8-5

Didn't even look at the schedule... just have 20 years of letdowns telling me what to expect.

Agreed there. South Carolina has a better chance at beating us than Missouri.

It's quite easy to understand. South Carolina is replacing Rocket Sanders at running back, a back who carried the ball nearly 50% of the snaps with an average of 4.8 yards per carry and caught nearly 30 passes. You are replacing Simon at TE their leading and most productive weapon. You are replacing their top tackler in safety Emanwori, their second tackler in linebacker Knight Jr, their third tackler in linebacker Martin-Scott, their all world defensive tackle in T. J. sanders, their freak in Kennard at DE, I mean the list goes on. You aren't just replacing some players on defense. You are replacing nearly all of your top ten tacklers and key players on offense.

Sellers can't do it all. South Carolina will be massively regressing to a 7-5 season.

Jdb101808 said:

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NoahAg said:

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UTSA - W
USU - W
ND - L
Auburn - L
MSU - W
Florida - L
Arkansas - L
LSU - L
Mizzou - L
SC - W
Samford - W
t.u. - L

5-7

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thats stupid....

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Is it though? None of those losses would be shocking, or even surprising.

Ok at an individual level each loss would be understandable but all 7 are statistically extremely low.

NoahAg said:

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UTSA - W
USU - W
ND - L
Auburn - L
MSU - W
Florida - L
Arkansas - L
LSU - L
Mizzou - L
SC - W
Samford - W
t.u. - L

5-7

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Arkansas and Mizzou feel like wins to me. So does Auburn. Just because we lost that game in that fashion last year doesn't mean anything for this season.

I am very much "wait and see" on Florida. They are riding a ton of momentum after finishing the year on 4 wins with Lagway being the second coming. But I'm not sure they're the threat everyone perceives them to be. Not to mention Lagway didn't throw a football in the spring. Curious how healthy he'll be over the course of the fall.

LSU, ND, and Texas will be the real challenges. I actually think ND will be the most winnable of those.

I like it. Thank you for the work and for the additional motivation. Now we just need everyone to improve this year and no injuries at key positions.

7-5 as usual

9-3 but 6-2 in conference. I think we lose the Notre Dame game. Drop a home game to either Auburn or Florida and drop one of Arky/LSU.

I think a lot of the teams that had big 2024 seasons (SC, Missouri, Tenn, sip, Georgia, LSU) fall down a peg or two while the 2024 teams (Florida, Aub, OU, A&M) that struggled take a step forward.

The biggest enigma in the SEC is LSU followed by tu and auburn. Those teams could be legit or 8-4/7-5.