W said:
all right, that should lock in 3 of the 4 playoff spots
Georgia, Michigan, and Washington
Florida State controls its destiny for the 4th spot
Bama and t.u. need lots of help
There's only 1 locked up.
Like it or not, the SEC game is likely a play-in game. FSU and Michigan both control their own destiny. That's all 4 right there if the latter 2 win.
I don't see Ohio State getting in. That leaves a universe of the first 4 teams you mentioned vying for the spots as this exercise would assume Bama and t.u. both win and Michigan and FSU both lose. Let's assume for a second there's a discussion among all 1-loss teams. This is all assuming the committee looks at things in a non-political way. I've tried to construct an honest assessment here. Obviously, some won't value the wins I've placed like I have or might want to penalize some losses more harshly. Keep in mind, you MUST remain objective and leave Big 12 hatred at the door.
Also remember to assume tomorrow's results get us to everyone has one loss -- t.u., Michigan, FSU, Bama, and UGa. Wins (record) in order of resume strength:
1. t.u.: Bama (12-1*), Wyoming (8-4), KU (8-4), KState (8-4), OkSt (10-3*)
2. Bama: Ole Miss (10-2), Tenn (8-4), LSU (9-3), UGa (12-1*)
3. Michigan: UNLV (9-3), Penn St (10-2), Ohio St (11-1)
4. UGa: Ole Miss (10-2), Tenn (8-4)
5. FSU: LSU (9-3), Clemson (8-4)
Losses (in order, least costly to most costly):
1. UGa: Bama
2. Bama: t.u.
3. FSU: Louisville
4. (tied) Michigan: Iowa/t.u.: OU
One could argue that there is little to no difference between losing to Iowa, Louisville and OU.
t.u. arguably has the lead in best wins but also has the more costly loss. Under this analysis, Bama is a no-brainer entry. They won their conference, have at least 4 "good" wins, and their loss to t.u. is irrelevant (except in terms of head to head). I think t.u. gets in because they're the final conference champ with 1 loss leaving the last choice among Georgia, Michigan, and FSU. I think FSU is eliminated due to their relatively weak "good" wins. That leaves Michigan with 3 wins over 9+ win teams, beating UGa by 1. Tenn may be better than UNLV (they probably are), but Ole Miss/PSU is a wash and OhSU is head and shoulders above all of them.
Thus, IF Bama, Louisville, Iowa and t.u. win tomorrow (unlikely), and if the committee uses an honest analysis, it should be Bama, t.u., Michigan, and Washington. ROOT LIKE HELL FOR OKLAHOMA STATE. WHERE'S THAT GOOFEY GUY WITH THE FOAM HAT?