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$15 million extra, per school

10,145 Views | 87 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by Universal
Bonfire1996
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This is the number I am hearing, behind the scenes, that is causing everyone to look the other way on the "Gentlemen's Agreement."

16 teams, 1 conference share x $15 million = $255 million per year more revenue.

Ask yourself, logically, do the sips and Sooners add that kind of value? Heck no. So how'd we get here? How in the blue hell do we get here with $255 million more money, ANNUALLY, on the table?

Connect the dots. Leaks say this discussion began at least six months ago. What happened around six months ago? ESPN announced as the winner for tier 1 rights.

The most logical conclusion is the SEC got worked in the negotiations and took a well below market deal. ESPN numbers guys know this. They put what the SEC left on the table together with elimination of LHN, and elimination of Big12, add all that up and you get somewhere close to $255 million annually.

It's the path of least resistance. So not only did the SEC screw us over in this deal, but Sankey is a terrible negotiator. Mike Slive he is not.

When is the media going to start doing the math? How does ESPN justify another $255 million annually for adding 450,000 TV sets in Oklahoma and 10 home games to its annual slate? The only way it makes sense is if the SEC settled for around 60% of its true market value last Winter.
_mpaul
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What would crack me up is if the SEC let in tu and OU, those two schools end up making more than they would have in the BDF, but then the other 14 SEC schools somehow end up making less. Not sure if that's mathematically possible, but I would laugh my ass off.
Paper. An insane deer. Taco meat.
Bonfire1996
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_mpaul said:

What would crack me up is if the SEC let in tu and OU, those two schools end up making more than they would have in the BDF, but then the other 14 SEC schools somehow end up making less. Not sure if that's mathematically possible, but I would laugh my ass off.
Whats frustrating is I have only seen these $15 million growth numbers in terms of 2025 dollars. What growth rates are being used on our current revenue trends? Because the number I have in my head for 2025 revenue and theirs are very different.

I actually think your scenario may be accurate.
Aggieair
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Based off the upcoming SEC/ESPN deal, we were already supposed to get about $66M for each of the 14 schools starting in 2025 (assuming it adds $300M more to conferences revenue than what it is now). That would mean we're getting $81M per school?
halfastros81
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There's no way they add that much value. I'm not convinced they can cover enough to keep current SEC members whole which would take $90-100mm incrementally.
Aggie4Life02
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Just win and none of it matters.
Bonfire1996
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Aggieair said:

Based off the upcoming SEC/ESPN deal, we were already supposed to get about $66M for each of the 14 schools starting in 2025 (assuming it adds $300M more to conferences revenue than what it is now). That would mean we're getting $81M per school?
Yes.
Bonfire1996
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halfastros81 said:

There's no way they add that much value.
not even close
Bonfire1996
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Aggie4Life02 said:

Just win and none of it matters.
After this little hissy fit we are throwing, which is being appropriately mocked, we will rally together as Aggies and focus on kicking the ever loving dog shlt out of them both. We aren't the same bunch as 2011, but they sure think we are.
Eso si, Que es
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I agree, the numbers don't make sense, but I think this is more about making the SEC the only game in town. Maybe they bring their fair share and everyone stays at the same $ we would be getting anyways, but I don't see us getting more $ across the board because of them.

However, by getting rid of the rest (Baylor's and tcehs and K states) falling away, the SEC is eventually even more valuable. And the talent will consolidate even more and no one will be able to compete for eyeballs on Saturday. Therefore, this is a 10 year decision, not a 2 year decision.

Obviously several people believe tu will do more damage than good, and I wouldn't argue that, but this is the way I think the SEC is looking at the decision.
jopatura
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ESPN likely told the SEC 6 months what they would have offered with TU & OU onboard. The only way it makes sense is if the SEC knew what the money projections would be beforehand. ESPN is probably willing to overpay for the next ten years to force a blowup of college football, then if things don't go their way by 2034 with their profit margins, they'll just walk away and leave the dust settling behind them.
Aggieair
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Yeah, I get it, and I know that's the OPs point. I'm more just restating it because it's so hard for me to believe. So either this results in a cool $1.275B annual TV revenue for the SEC, or Sankey lied to everyone and tu and OU were always secretly part of the ESPN $300M a year deal, and everyone is getting less than the promised $66M a year, and Sankey unilaterally went out and arranged a legally binding contract that stipulated the inclusion of 2 new members without the legally required vote.

*edited because I used a comma instead of decimal
Harry Lime
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Quote:

I am hearing, behind the scenes,
AgBQ-00
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If rumors are true about bigs from ACC possibly moving then we may not know what all is on the table. Could we be seeing a total consolidation down to two huge conferences B1G and SEC?
halfastros81
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But where would ESPN get the money from? Anyone in Texas or Oklahoma that has any interest is already an ESPN subscriber. They'd have to increase the rates significantly to cover it . The piece I don't have any feel for is the online revenue and how much that might go up and what revenue would come from that.
Sterling82
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Bonfire1996 said:

Aggie4Life02 said:

Just win and none of it matters.
After this little hissy fit we are throwing, which is being appropriately mocked, we will rally together as Aggies and focus on kicking the ever loving dog shlt out of them both. We aren't the same bunch as 2011, but they sure think we are.

I've been hearing this mantra for 2 decades. The reason we're in the position we are now is because we took drastic measures to put us in the best position to win in half a century. It's naive to think we can afford to sit on our hands and keep quiet while that gets eroded.
jopatura
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Subscribers doesn't equal eyeballs. Eyeballs sells ads. More eyeballs actually watching SEC games on ESPN means that ESPN can sell ads for higher revenue. One article I read said that while the channel was available to everyone in OK & TX, the actual viewers was pretty low.

And like someone else said above, this consolidates the three big schools in the two states to always be playing on an ESPN network and then it kills off the rest of the Big 12, so if you're a football fan in Texas you're going to begrudgingly watch the SEC.
TexanJeff
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This.

Sure you get more eyeballs but not that many more.

It's not like they are adding California or France quantities of viewers.

Sure it's more but if Texas is 1/3 of Texas, A&M is a 1/3 and everyone else is in the last third. A LOt of the Texas third already watch SEC football, same with the other third.

Where is the added value to ESPN to give the SEC all this money? Plus CBS gets the best SEC games!
halfastros81
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That makes sense but I have a hard time thinking it adds enough eyeballs to make up anywhere close to that kind of $.
Bonfire1996
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Sterling82 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Aggie4Life02 said:

Just win and none of it matters.
After this little hissy fit we are throwing, which is being appropriately mocked, we will rally together as Aggies and focus on kicking the ever loving dog shlt out of them both. We aren't the same bunch as 2011, but they sure think we are.

I've been hearing this mantra for 2 decades. The reason we're in the position we are now is because we took drastic measures to put us in the best position to win in half a century. It's naive to think we can afford to sit on our hands and keep quiet while that gets eroded.
Dont misunderstand.

1. I believe we should fight to the death to keep them out. Sue everyone if the breached a prescribed duty by negotiating in a manner other than good faith.
2. We aren't acting like a top 5 program, with top 5 revenue, a top 5 coach, top 5 recruiting, top 5 everything.

Both can be true. We could never explain to the media or the casual fan the lengths Texas will go to undermine us, so we get to look like bltches while defending ourselves legitimately
Bonfire1996
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TexanJeff said:

This.

Sure you get more eyeballs but not that many more.

It's not like they are adding California or France quantities of viewers.

Sure it's more but if Texas is 1/3 of Texas, A&M is a 1/3 and everyone else is in the last third. A LOt of the Texas third already watch SEC football, same with the other third.

Where is the added value to ESPN to give the SEC all this money? Plus CBS gets the best SEC games!
This is all based upon 2025 numbers after CBS contract is over. We are 100% ESPN at that time.
Mathguy64
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And in 2025 when ESPN/ABC/Disney would no longer need to pay for or air BDF games.

All this is happening at the same time. In the end it's a transfer of payments and money from BDF to SEC.
PaulTony
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16 million thats it
I thought this was a billion dollar business
Has any BDF teams decided to take ESPN to court?
Predatory pricing
Monopoly
JustisWalkert
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Surely ESPN couldn't have miscalculated the commercial value of tu, could they? (cough...LHN)
Dominion Caracas Branch
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Yeah I think espn is playing sec for a fast one. They get rid of the dead weight of the lhn and big12, and pay the sec a relative pittance more.
Rendered Fat
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If the additional revenue is that transparent and insignificant, then why are we the only SEC fan base complaining? If the other schools can see that they possibly face no additional income, or even a loss of revenue by adding tu and OU then why is no one else protesting besides us?

Something isn't adding up.
Bonfire1996
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JustisWalkert said:

Surely ESPN couldn't have miscalculated the commercial value of tu, could they? (cough...LHN)
$300 million over 20 years was a mistake. Not big enough to really matter.

$255 million mistake annually gets the CEO of Disney fired
Harry Lime
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Dominion Caracas Branch said:

Yeah I think espn is playing sec for a fast one. They get rid of the dead weight of the lhn and big12, and pay the sec a relative pittance more.
This is exactly what I think. ESPN isn't really going to add subscribers or viewers, but they're manipulating behind the scenes to force a restructuring (or ditching) of the LHN and Big X contracts.
Sparkie
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The sec needs a revenue increase of 140% to afford +10 million per team. That's assuming the sec reaches 16 total teams.

tu/ou being worth 40% of the sec is laughable. Dont count on the +15 million.


Just for reference b10 teams get 55 million while those in the sec get 45. The b10 has a ton of viewers.
FriscoKid
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ESPN is driving this whole thing. They want to unload the LHN. This deal is better for them so they money whipped the SEC.
Hillary paid for a warrant to spy on Trump.
halfastros81
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We really don't know what's going on in the SEC member board rooms. Most of the fans don't know or care about the numbers. Even here people accept that it's all about the money but when you dig into it the numbers look screwy.!

I had a smart Baylor guy tell me a few days ago he doesn't think it can be stopped because tu has so many rich alumni.'I asked him what does that have to do with i? . It's all about the commercial arrangements between conference members and alumni really don't matter on something like this unless they are tossing in hundreds of millions a yr into the conference coffers.
cochrum
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$15 million? Whoopdie freakin doo....thats not enough. With the inflation going on, whats that 7.5 million real life? Not enough to bring their butts in the conference.
My Name Is Judge
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So sip is getting pawned off on the sec bc espn **** the bed w lhn?

How on earth are other member schools going along with this?
Proc92
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My Name Is Judge said:

So sip is getting pawned off on the sec bc espn **** the bed w lhn?

How on earth are other member schools going along with this?
It is clear that all are simply prostitutes and are simply negotiating the price.
Mathguy64
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My Name Is Judge said:

So sip is getting pawned off on the sec bc espn **** the bed w lhn?

How on earth are other member schools going along with this?


The LHN is a rounding error in this. It's $15MM/year. It's not having to pay an entire conference. They are de facto removing the BDF from the table. That's the kill shot in this. They wipe out the BDF from the debit line and make the SEC more valuable with the best 2 pieces but the net effect is a win for ESPN.
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