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$15 million extra, per school

10,148 Views | 87 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by Universal
JWinTX
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Okyou've been telling us for years that tu is screwed because we were in the SEC and they were left with the kids and OU provided no meaningful TV sets and were a net negative to any conference. And when the SEC makes a deal with ESPN for all content, tu and OU are now getting in without even a hint of any gentleman's agreement keeping them from joint the SEC?

Eff the SEC. let FSU and Clemson join
Iowaggie
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AG
Here's what I don't understand about the theory that ESPN is eliminating the B12. Yes, it makes sense to pay for one less property, but it doesn't make sense to have 1 get l fewer seller of content.

There used to be 6 BCS conference, then 5 power conferenced and if this gets moved to 3 or 4, while more buyers have entered the marketplace ( Amazon), so ESPN is reducing the number of major college conferences while there are more sellers.

Mathguy64
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I fully believe this has been going on begind closed doors for 6 months and that the member schools (all of them) either knew all the details or enough to know what was on the table. And all the schools are ok with this because of the $$ involved. This is about to get very cutthroat with TV negotiations and NIL money to players. What the SEC office has to be asking is who let this sneak out to the Chronicle? I have to think that if this had stayed quiet for another 18 months and get everyone to 2023 and closer to the 2025 nexus that by then the landscape would be so different anyway that it would be a lot more palatable.
jopatura
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If it gets consolidated down to three or four, Amazon/Netflix/Warner Bros/HBO is not going to be able to bring enough money to the table to outbid ESPN/Fox/CBS/possibly NBC. They may be able to work something out where those platforms buy a specific game for $50 million. If more high-level conferences exist, it lets those buyers come to the table. The big sports networks don't want them sitting at the table, pulling away eyeballs from their games and now they don't have to bankroll smaller colleges that don't bring in decent revenues on their own.
BadAggie
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Iowaggie said:

Here's what I don't understand about the theory that ESPN is eliminating the B12. Yes, it makes sense to pay for one less property, but it doesn't make sense to have 1 get l fewer seller of content.

There used to be 6 BCS conference, then 5 power conferenced and if this gets moved to 3 or 4, while more buyers have entered the marketplace ( Amazon), so ESPN is reducing the number of major college conferences while there are more sellers.


Further consolidation of conferences and relegation of smaller brand schools (in the sense that good size state universities like tceh and okie lite are) out of participation will have an opposite effect than I think the powers that be anticipate. Not to mention with players being paid. It won't take much to turn viewers off and there are plenty who watch college football because they are alums rather than because they are fans of the sport.

Won't take much for this house of cards to fall.
kb1421
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The first time we went through realignment it was all about market share and getting into various markets and cable . ESPN/Disney and Fox are now saying its about digital and streaming servcies. Well if thats the case it doesnt matter if Oklahoma only has 450,000 sets with ESPN in Oklahoma what matters is if in addition to their 455,000 sets in Oklahoma, can you find interest in additional folks who will pay to stream it..And additional OU fans nationwide who would be interested in streaming it If you are going to put a price on future product you need amazing product that folks can access nationwide and in additional ways(cable, Streaming, etc)Going forward It doesnt matter necessarily if you represent a small state as long as people are interested in you nationwide.

Looks to me like this is about making your TV package so strong that it appeals to the masses nationwide not just certain regions
BigSneezy
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Bonfire1996 said:

This is the number I am hearing, behind the scenes, that is causing everyone to look the other way on the "Gentlemen's Agreement."

16 teams, 1 conference share x $15 million = $255 million per year more revenue.

Ask yourself, logically, do the sips and Sooners add that kind of value? Heck no. So how'd we get here? How in the blue hell do we get here with $255 million more money, ANNUALLY, on the table?

Connect the dots. Leaks say this discussion began at least six months ago. What happened around six months ago? ESPN announced as the winner for tier 1 rights.

The most logical conclusion is the SEC got worked in the negotiations and took a well below market deal. ESPN numbers guys know this. They put what the SEC left on the table together with elimination of LHN, and elimination of Big12, add all that up and you get somewhere close to $255 million annually.

It's the path of least resistance. So not only did the SEC screw us over in this deal, but Sankey is a terrible negotiator. Mike Slive he is not.

When is the media going to start doing the math? How does ESPN justify another $255 million annually for adding 450,000 TV sets in Oklahoma and 10 home games to its annual slate? The only way it makes sense is if the SEC settled for around 60% of its true market value last Winter.


How about the Ags get double share. Or 1.5 shares.?
panhandlefarmer
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AG
I agree that the mouse is that villain here.
BigSneezy
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Sparkie said:

The sec needs a revenue increase of 140% to afford +10 million per team. That's assuming the sec reaches 16 total teams.

tu/ou being worth 40% of the sec is laughable. Dont count on the +15 million.


Just for reference b10 teams get 55 million while those in the sec get 45. The b10 has a ton of viewers.


I don't see the math working.
greg.w.h
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The $255 million is too conveniently the upper over CBS that is already baked in. But if the total is $81 minion per team, there is very little reason to be upset about the economics at least.
TexAgs91
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Aggie4Life02 said:

Just win and none of it matters.
It's not that easy when the refs are on t.u.'s payroll
Donald J Trump is my President
Sterling82
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ESPN is a cancer. As mentioned above interest in college football is, to a significant, degree driven by alumni. ESPN apparently looks at it as just another form of entertainment. We'll probably see the day where the Aggie band will be sidelined by a flashy halftime show contrived "to expand the viewership".

One other question. What amount is espn currently in on the B12 annually? With Fox having the day games, is it enough to produce the big SEC payday we've been hearing?
Mathguy64
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TexAgs91 said:

Aggie4Life02 said:

Just win and none of it matters.
It's not that easy when the refs are on t.u.'s payroll


The sips and OU are about to find that the pool is a little deeper. OU in particular. They have been in the playoff just about every time. Moving to the SEC will make that road much harder unless it until the playoffs are expanded. Which again conveniently seemed to be timed for 2025. And the sips have been an average team for a decent span. They will have an even harder hill to climb competitively.
Harry Lime
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kb1421 said:

The first time we went through realignment it was all about market share and getting into various markets and cable . ESPN/Disney and Fox are now saying its about digital and streaming servcies. Well if thats the case it doesnt matter if Oklahoma only has 450,000 sets with ESPN in Oklahoma what matters is if in addition to their 455,000 sets in Oklahoma, can you find interest in additional folks who will pay to stream it..And additional OU fans nationwide who would be interested in streaming it If you are going to put a price on future product you need amazing product that folks can access nationwide and in additional ways(cable, Streaming, etc)Going forward It doesnt matter necessarily if you represent a small state as long as people are interested in you nationwide.

Looks to me like this is about making your TV package so strong that it appeals to the masses nationwide not just certain regions
Yeah, I'm dumb about this stuff, but it seems they either need to grow the audience, or get control of a larger inventory of quality games in order to force them onto ESPN+ and force fans to pay extra subscriptions. A lot of G5 games already require that; what if they can force more premiere P5 games onto ESPN+?
Gidnik
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TexAgs91 said:

Aggie4Life02 said:

Just win and none of it matters.
It's not that easy when the refs are on t.u.'s payroll
Yes, the refs who played football in the sec will be on Texas's payroll.
Mathguy64
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Harry Lime said:

kb1421 said:

The first time we went through realignment it was all about market share and getting into various markets and cable . ESPN/Disney and Fox are now saying its about digital and streaming servcies. Well if thats the case it doesnt matter if Oklahoma only has 450,000 sets with ESPN in Oklahoma what matters is if in addition to their 455,000 sets in Oklahoma, can you find interest in additional folks who will pay to stream it..And additional OU fans nationwide who would be interested in streaming it If you are going to put a price on future product you need amazing product that folks can access nationwide and in additional ways(cable, Streaming, etc)Going forward It doesnt matter necessarily if you represent a small state as long as people are interested in you nationwide.

Looks to me like this is about making your TV package so strong that it appeals to the masses nationwide not just certain regions
Yeah, I'm dumb about this stuff, but it seems they either need to grow the audience, or get control of a larger inventory of quality games in order to force them onto ESPN+ and force fans to pay extra subscriptions. A lot of G5 games already require that; what if they can force more premiere P5 games onto ESPN+?
That's exactly what they are doing. OU versus Ags/Bama/Auburn/LSU/Georgia/Florida and sips versus Ags/Bama/Auburn/LSU/Georgia/Florida while never showing OU/ sips versus KSU/KU/ISU/Baylol ever again. They are gaining 10-13 really quality games and dumping 10-12 much lower quality ones.
TyperWoods
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I hope to hell we aren't giving tu and ou equal shares to start with.

They can take a lesser % for a few years since they are the ones begging to join.
BTKAG97
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AG
Bonfire1996 said:


After this little hissy fit we are throwing, which is being appropriately mocked,
By which idiots?
awschux
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You're more than half right on the math. You are forgetting the base 45.5 per school that they have to bring with them this year just to equal the slice of the pie all SEC schools are getting already.

So the math is actually 17*$15MM + 2*$45.5MM
which means Texas and OU alone have to bring in $346MM every year just between the two of them.

They don't bring a third of that in each year between the two of them combined.

THE MATH IS NOT THERE. SOMETHING IS AMISS. THERES A MAJOR PUZZLE PIECE INTENTIONALLY NOT BEING SHARED.

Follow the money.
Vic iii
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SEC will pay TX/OU's exit fee from Big 12 if needed. Just over one year payback based on annual incremental $15mm to legacy SEC schools. Easy bond deal in this market.
Bonfire1996
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awschux said:

You're more than half right on the math. You are forgetting the base 45.5 per school that they have to bring with them this year just to equal the slice of the pie all SEC schools are getting already.

So the math is actually 17*$15MM + 2*$45.5MM
which means Texas and OU alone have to bring in $346MM every year just between the two of them.

They don't bring a third of that in each year between the two of them combined.

THE MATH IS NOT THERE. SOMETHING IS AMISS. THERES A MAJOR PUZZLE PIECE INTENTIONALLY NOT BEING SHARED.

Follow the money.
Holy shlt you are right.
BadAggie
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Harry Lime said:

kb1421 said:

The first time we went through realignment it was all about market share and getting into various markets and cable . ESPN/Disney and Fox are now saying its about digital and streaming servcies. Well if thats the case it doesnt matter if Oklahoma only has 450,000 sets with ESPN in Oklahoma what matters is if in addition to their 455,000 sets in Oklahoma, can you find interest in additional folks who will pay to stream it..And additional OU fans nationwide who would be interested in streaming it If you are going to put a price on future product you need amazing product that folks can access nationwide and in additional ways(cable, Streaming, etc)Going forward It doesnt matter necessarily if you represent a small state as long as people are interested in you nationwide.

Looks to me like this is about making your TV package so strong that it appeals to the masses nationwide not just certain regions
Yeah, I'm dumb about this stuff, but it seems they either need to grow the audience, or get control of a larger inventory of quality games in order to force them onto ESPN+ and force fans to pay extra subscriptions. A lot of G5 games already require that; what if they can force more premiere P5 games onto ESPN+?
Turning regular season college football games into PPV events would probably kill the sport.
BadAggie
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awschux said:

You're more than half right on the math. You are forgetting the base 45.5 per school that they have to bring with them this year just to equal the slice of the pie all SEC schools are getting already.

So the math is actually 17*$15MM + 2*$45.5MM
which means Texas and OU alone have to bring in $346MM every year just between the two of them.

They don't bring a third of that in each year between the two of them combined.

THE MATH IS NOT THERE. SOMETHING IS AMISS. THERES A MAJOR PUZZLE PIECE INTENTIONALLY NOT BEING SHARED.

Follow the money.
This is probably based on more schools joining for a 20 team league.
Jimbo4win
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If you had a job paying 7.5 million per year working only 20 hours per week and were offered a job paying 9 million per year but had to work 80 hours per week, would you take it? At the moment, all 14 SEC schools have it SO DAMN good! Going forward the pay MAY be marginally better but the stress and anxiety of putting up with the horn clown show will not be worth it.
Harry Lime
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AG

Quote:

Turning regular season college football games into PPV events would probably kill the sport.

To be clear, I wasn't talking about ppv, but the monthly subscription for ESPN+. And totally speculating.
Aggieair
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And 346M is more than what the B12 distributed to all 10 schools in 18-19 ($340M).

And that doesn't even account for the dilution of the $300M a year starting in 2025.
Aggieair
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The same can be said for OU and tu giving up upcoming autobid from the B12 in the 12 team playoff.
AstroPete
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I was browsing around thru old articles last night and all the agreements made between SEC, ESPN, tu and LHN etc etc. Everything of course just points to 2024/25 where everything changes. Interesting to see that if tu leaves a conference, ESPN will have a window to handle their rights however they see fit. So obviously this is where ESPN can get out of the LHN. But I found it a little harder to understand where the money was that made this good for the SEC especially since they've already agreed on a deal with ESPN for the exclusive rights thru 2033 or whatever. Like, if you already made the deal, why does adding those 2 schools suddenly require Disney to go back to the table with you. And that's not really where the money is. A 10 million bump or whatever doesn't seem like much. But the forward thinking here (at the very least, in their eyes) by the SEC is being properly set up for the 12 team CFP. That's where the big money will be for the SEC. Speculation is that the 12 team playoff will come with around a billion dollar payout to the teams involved. So the more quality or potential quality teams you have get in, the more money everyone makes. There was going to be a BIG grab for conferences to get as big as they can to have the most teams in the playoff. If you go back to last season and it was a 12 team playoff, the SEC would have had 5 teams (or 4? off the top of my head) in the CFB playoff. If you had OU that's 6 and Iowa State was the other big 12, that arguably should have been tu if they knew how to hire coaches and that would be 7. Obviously, there record wouldn't have been the same if playing an SEC schedule but that's where realignment comes later in the paragraph but the bias is there to have either of them put in the CFP simply because of who they are, and where they are. We've seen how quickly teams like Texas, Ohio State and ND etc skyrocket up the polls as soon as they string together 3 wins. SEC can use that much like the big 10 has done for years. And if the big 10 grabs them before the SEC can, you won't find 2 other schools worth adding to help you take more CFP spots. The ACC just isn't going to lose any of those schools. So, big 10 would come out making more money. And it's not just about the TV deal, it is how many teams you can potential get in the dance. That's why super conferences finally make sense, the playoff. That's the money. Getting more teams in the CFP gets everyone more money. And if you are smart, you get all the quality teams you can and let your reputation alone get you teams in. The west looks a little weaker than the east when they move Alabama and Auburn to the east but think about how smart that is. You make A&M, tu and ou have an easier path to more wins so you've got at least 3 teams to potentially get in every year. If tu or OU is down, whomever finished higher in the east gets in instead and ESPN will still pitch those quality wins against tu and even OU and you're naive to think these things don't factor into how they take teams. Why do you think ND got in over A&M? You gotta go off something. In the west, and you let the reputation of the gauntlet that is the SEC west that can get maybe 4 teams in. Making it easier on OU and tu just helps everyone. If the SEC can get 5 or 6 teams in the CFP every season, you take half the pot every single team. At least. Going from 3-4 teams in to 5 or 6 or hell, maybe every once in awhile 7??? That's where the money is.

Anyway I'm just waiting for my tire to be fixed so I killed some time spitting this out

TL;DR the money is in the 12 team CFP and maximizing your participants with the best "available" teams before the big10 or any other conference can. They are cornering the playoff market
Jarrin' Jay
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AG
cow and OU alone aren't worth the extra $$, it is that they are now playing SEC teams and not little 12 teams. So there are are move good SEC games inventory overall. That is the $$ connecting the dots. Those two are not worth the $$, but additioanl SEC inventory of games is.
aggiehawg
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AG
Jarrin' Jay said:

cow and OU alone aren't worth the extra $$, it is that they are now playing SEC teams and not little 12 teams. So there are are move good SEC games inventory overall. That is the $$ connecting the dots. Those two are not worth the $$, but additioanl SEC inventory of games is.
SEC could go to a 9 game conference schedule without cow and land thieves.
AstroPete
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Fact is, everyone knows all the big 12 is, is tu and ou. Of all the power 5 conferences, those 2 teams had the easiest path. SEC is basically taking the big 12 without the baggage and they are getting paid to do it. It's insane. You've eliminated the 5th power conference and forced the other 3 to pick up scraps if they want to do the same. If the SEC didn't take them now, the big 10, ACC or Pac 12 would have. Then, if the SEC decided to make a super conference, it would have been SLIM PICKINGS. Personally, I think tu and OU made the wrong choice, they would have been better off in the big 10. But, the SEC made the RIGHT choice. Sorry it's just fact. Well, it's fact if the 12 team playoff happens. It's horrible if it doesn't. But they all know what's coming.
Sterling82
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First, the SEC is already a super conference but what if someone else gets OU and tu and goes to 18 or 20. So what?!

And the playoff argument above sounds like the DeLoss plan of creating easy routes to the playoffs. How did that work out?

Lastly, all these marquis matchups that are being lauded as great for the conference could be on tap now but the teams want to play TSU or Middle Tennessee instead. So, the argument was always that the SEC schedule didn't require SEC teams to upgrade non-conference schedules. But now, we need to add these two teams to spice up the schedule. And I believe it won't move the money needle for anyone but tu and ou.
halfastros81
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AG
Your last sentence, I agree totally and it makes me wonder why the rest of the SEC would want it.
petebaker
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Dollars and cents accounting posts provide tons of information I appreciate.
Inflation comes from more stimulus and trillion dollar political programs
Universal
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Hey Bonfire96, good to see you again. I've been gone almost 10 years since you told me I was an idiot about UT and OU joining the SEC near 2025 by using the ESPN Big 12 money to pay for it. I guess you were wrong, eh.

Of course in typical fashion, you suspect a conspiracy by ESPN to screw the SEC. The math isn't hard. As I told you 10 years ago, ESPN has been paying the Big 12 hundreds of millions annually essentially for UT and OU inventory. They are simply moving that money to the SEC along with UT and OU. Easy peasy.

No need to congratulate me for giving you the roadmap 10 years ago. Just drink a bourbon on the rocks in honor of old Universal and we'll be even. Oh, also enjoy the extra money Daddy dropped into your laps and quit complaining. Now we're all on equal ground. May the best team win!
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