smudge14255 said:

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I'll be disappointed if we don't go 11-1. We have to beat Auburn. If we lose to Bama/LSU, AND keep those respectable (within a score) we can still say we're moving in the right direction. We lose to Auburn, the season is a failure, unless we beat both bama/LSU. But if we drop auburn, chances are we are the same team as last year and wont stand a real chance against bama/LSU. Soooo, we must beat Auburn, and to show that we are taking those steps I think we have to take down one of the last two. It's time. I feel like the attitude and expectations are where they need to be (not talking about from fans, but from within the program from coaches to players). We need to go into those last games undefeated *knowing* we're going to win, not just feel like we can be competitive.

All of this said, I think we can win the SEC *if* a couple of things happen within our team. By saying that, I'm expecting each team to give us their best... we can't rely on a team having an off game to slide by them. One of these things is that our younger elites need to break out right now. Smith, Demas, Richardson, Achane, Leal, Jones, & Green, specifically. And we need to have some of the borderline elites step up. Harris, Spiller, Cupp, Big W, Johnson, & Morris, to name a few. O-line WILL be better, time will show how much, which should translate to numbers as good as or better than a 2018 Mond, which would be great. Another thing that needs to happen, and I think will happen with the added talent, is that JF needs to open up the playbook a bit. Let Mond be Mond (like we say more of in the bowl game) and use the weapons around him more often and more effectively (which we also saw in the Texas Bowl). I think if we have a handful of these young studs break out and produce big we have a real shot of running the table.

Let me hear why this is a ridiculous take...

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We've won 10 games one time in the last 21 years and now a 10-2 regular season is the minimum expectations to not be disappointed in?

That's why it's ridiculous. Anyone getting disappointed in 10-2, even if the schedule is easier than normal, isn't thinking clearly.

I think we about match Auburn in 2020. Not a class away any more. We were definitely a class away in 2019.

In 2019, they had 23 SRs. We had 3. That alone should tell you where the biggest difference in the two teams were. Those SRs are gone. We return a ton of starters, our best class is no longer true fish, and another top 6 class added to that.

We should be about even in 2020 after what all they lost in comparison to us. The composite team rankings will tell that, although they might still be ever so slightly more talented in the JR/SR classes, whereas we have more star talent on paper in the FR/SO classes. Overall about a wash. Last year, it was very lopsided with how much more talented and deep their SR class was compared to ours. Not any more.

NyAggie said:

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Quote:

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I don't think we are worse at recruiting. But they beat us on the field this year and our recruiting isn't consistently better than theirs so we either discount the rating services or expect better coaching to close the gap.

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What's closing the talent gap with auburn is our last two classes plus them losing a lot of upperclassmen starters from their 2019 team

I think 9-3 is par this year with 8-4 a bogie, 10-2 a birdie and 11-1 an eagle

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This is true if you are a pro golfer. If you are a bogey golfer like me, it isn't. I'll take bogey any day. Shoot an even 90 while having a few beers? Sounds like a great time. _

I wouldn't take 8-4 any day.

ClassOf17 said:

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Depending on QB play. There should be no reason we aren't playing for the SEC champ and a spot in the playoffs.

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"QB play" is not what's going to determine whether or not we compete for the SEC. Mond is plenty good to lead a SEC champion team.

Sorry BASers...I know many of you revel in the yummy pain of "woe is us" but once again we are:

OUT
OF
EXCUSES!

Of course few achieve LESS with MORE than A&M.

That's not BAS...that's just historical fact!

We are 2 seasons away from no more excuses.

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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Quote:

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With all the talent we have amassed, we are (brace yourselves)

OUT OF EXCUSES!

Anything less than 10 wins should be viewed as utter failure...that's $7.5M/yr coach-level expectations.

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Problem is that top competition has ammassed more.

85 scholarship players. Jimbo permitted 25/year. Even a great coach misses every 4th recruit. Probably still a class away from Auburn and LSU, 2 classes from Bama.

The top competition also pay their coaches huge. 7 mil gets our foot in the door, not a miracle.

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Excuses.

I reject the premise

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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I reject the premise

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Nobody cares. 10-2 is the expectation next year.

If the ags go 9-3 and crush in a bowl game nobody will be ready to fire the guy but the goal next year is 10 regular season wins. We have too much coming back and key opponents have to replace a ton of players.

Got to be able to consistently gain yards on ground or it will be same old story.

If that means better talent equals better running, fine.

If that means Jimbo has to get a touch more creative on offense, more motion, etc, so be it.

But if we can't run between tackles effectively it is really hard to win in this conference.

That and I'm telling you, get a shock collar for Mond. All off season on his drop backs if he rolls to his right shock him. It is that extra split second where his guys are coming open or have defender on him and he could deliver to a slot but by this time Mond is rolling right and TV commentators are showing us what he was looking at downfield and showing all guys covered up...but what they fail to show us is Mond is already bailing pocket for no reason.

Agreed. Need whole team of very good players, especially upperclassmen.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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Auburn dominated us physically last year

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Auburn's defensive line dominated our offensive line. We gave up some big plays early, but those were limited to early only.

And we were still in the game to the last, losing only by a score.

Oh yeah, those guys on the defensive line that were the biggest factor in the game for Auburn aren't going to be there. Neither is 4 of their 5 offensive line starters. All 4 of their starting secondary is gone.

Meanwhile almost all of our offensive line returns, with a year of maturity, seasoning and conditioning under their belt. They won't be overnight 5 star guys, but their play should improve considerably. We are bringing in returning starters ad RB. WR and QB - all of which should see improved play. Plus we have some insane younger talent at the skill positions. Our defense should be improved across the board.

Auburn at home is a 3 point advantage. I'll be shocked if the game spread is any more than that.

NoahAg said:

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ClassOf17 said:

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Depending on QB play. There should be no reason we aren't playing for the SEC champ and a spot in the playoffs.

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"QB play" is not what's going to determine whether or not we compete for the SEC. Mond is plenty good to lead a SEC champion team.

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I would strongly disagree with that statement. Mond is a good QB, but nowhere near good enough to lead a SEC champ.

QB alone will determine if we break past the nine win mark.

Quote:

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Auburn's defensive line dominated our offensive line. We gave up some big plays early, but those were limited to early only.

And we were still in the game to the last, losing only by a score.

Oh yeah, those guys on the defensive line that were the biggest factor in the game for Auburn aren't going to be there. Neither is 4 of their 5 offensive line starters. All 4 of their starting secondary is gone.

Meanwhile almost all of our offensive line returns, with a year of maturity, seasoning and conditioning under their belt. They won't be overnight 5 star guys, but their play should improve considerably. We are bringing in returning starters ad RB. WR and QB - all of which should see improved play. Plus we have some insane younger talent at the skill positions. Our defense should be improved across the board.

Auburn at home is a 3 point advantage. I'll be shocked if the game spread is any more than that.

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this is pretty much how I see this game. this is the one true "tossup" on our schedule in 2020. auburn loses a lot of upperclassmen while we return a lot of players, which should even things up for this matchup.

this game should be the difference between 9-3 and 10-2

Quote:

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I would strongly disagree with that statement. Mond is a good QB, but nowhere near good enough to lead a SEC champ.

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Everyone in the country would have said the same about Burrow this time last year. He was not only good enough to lead a SEC champ but also have the greatest season ever for a QB.

Before morons reply....no, this in no way means I think Mond will have a similar season to Burrow last year.

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Nobody cares. 10-2 is the expectation next year...We have too much coming back and key opponents have to replace a ton of players.

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Most realize it is a stretch and how flawed the premises are. The betting markets will reflect it.

Our OL struggled last year. In all liklihood, the 18 and 19 recruits who will make it need another year. Getting up to average would be a big improvement. Even so, we will still be at a disadvantage relative to the defenses faced.

MAYBE Auburn and LSU's backup DFront are a significant step down. But that is unlikely, since they have been recruiting well for a decade. Maybe their inexperience takes them a step back, but they will have had almost a full season of experience before we meet.

Auburn and LSU will replace OL. But we will replace DL. Brown was solid and could become an enforcer. Same with Leal. Peevy is a 3tech who will not start until his Sr year. He is not likely to be better than solid. He was underwhelming when playing NT last year. Rogers can play NT, but he is also not likely to be better than solid.

SDE: LEAL, Clemmons, ?
3tech: Peevy, ? (Rogers could play, but is not ideal). ?
NT: BROWN, Rogers, ?
Edge: ?, ? (Neither Johnson nor Martin have done enough of anything)



It is possible, but a lot would have to go right.

I genuinely think it's fantastic so many have a positive outlook on the 2020 season.

I hope we can earn respect this year. I want respect more than I want an SEC Championship (although the 2 are often synonymous they can be exclusive).

After that comes fear and hate. When our opponents fear and hate us we will have arrived.

Bunk Moreland said:

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I would strongly disagree with that statement. Mond is a good QB, but nowhere near good enough to lead a SEC champ.

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Everyone in the country would have said the same about Burrow this time last year. He was not only good enough to lead a SEC champ but also have the greatest season ever for a QB.

Before morons reply....no, this in no way means I think Mond will have a similar season to Burrow last year.

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I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but no way I would bet on Mond showing any improvement in his fourth year.

If we lose to Arkansas, I will be gravely concerned.

W said:

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yes, that's kind of the elephant in the room.

the 2018 class has yielded O'Neal and 2 or 3 good front 7 players.

Brown and Small are definite contributors.

I expect O'Neal to get passed on the depth chart this season.

Beal probably gets a reduced role because Cupp is back.

Martin probably gets passed at some point sooner than later.

That's your '18 class to date.

Still holding out hope for '18 OL and Preston

otherwise...not much else there

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A .J. McCarron won an SEC championship- true story.

TAM85 said:

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A .J. McCarron won an SEC championship- true story.

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He led Bama to 2 national titles as well.

OL struggled in run blocking, but improved as the season went on. They were at minimum average in pass blocking.

Quote:

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SDE: LEAL, Clemmons, ?
3tech: Peevy, ? (Rogers could play, but is not ideal). ?
NT: BROWN, Rogers, ?
Edge: ?, ? (Neither Johnson nor Martin have done enough of anything)



It is possible, but a lot would have to go right.

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Leal & Brown are going to be a force to be reckoned with on the front line. When you have those 2, it makes the other guys better.

Johnson has shown flashes. McKinnley Jackson is big enough to get immediate PT on the DL as a true freshman just like Leal did.

I think you'll also see 1 or both of Diggs/Harris getting time on the edge as true freshmen as well.

We ran for negative -1 yards against UGA.

Sacks (according to Mond's game log on espn):
okie lite 1
lsu 5
uga 3
sc 2
msu 0
om 4
bama 5
arkie 4 (probably the worst game in terms of busts in pass pro)
aub 3
clem 2

Some of the complete busts in protection got corrected. That did not stop individual OL from getting beaten repeatedly.

FWIW, I dont like this reality. I just think we are 2 years off.

Success can be measured different ways. 2019 season reflected weaknesses at OL and.
QB. OL never performed outstanding. Auburn,LSU, Bama,Georgia all manhandled our OL. Our QB had trouble throwing long ball. Until these problems are greatly improved; all SEC games will be tough. Even Vanderbilt. I've been an Ag since 1961. Through the years it's normal not to be too confident. Coaching has to improve also. Even though season is 8-4; what about injuries?Any expectations of 11 or more wins are probably not realistic.Coach Malzahn at Auburn is too tough to beat unless QB and OL greatly improve and our coaching
improves.
Just my two cents.

This thread has the best title I have seen in quite a long time.

Put the BAS aside through gambling. If you think we will get upset by Miss St, bet on them. Same with every other team. We should be favored so even just betting the under should be good. Either way, youre a winner.

schedule is ridiculously soft anything less than 10-2 will be disappointing. The BAS comes from decades of mediocre QB play. Hopefully Mond and the OL are much better next year and the Ags get a win at Auburn & the Arky game is 24-3 at halftime

I believe we can be 12-0 we just need to out score all our Opponents.....

BAS is a symptom of a larger emotional disorder rather than an honest assessment of the team. I vote for relegating all mentions of "BAS" to Basic Allowance for Subsistence - as in if you're an Aggie who perpetually warns of doom and gloom, you should forfeit your earning ability to the rest of us who can do something positive with it.

jsmc71 said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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smudge14255 said:

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schmellba99 said:

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Are we really a class away from Auburn?

2019:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 11

2018:
TAMU - 17
Auburn - 12

2017:
TAMU - 13
Auburn - 9

2016:
TAMU - 18
Auburn - 9

Average:
TAMU - 13.5
Auburn - 10.25

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2020:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 7

and we were 4 last year, to Auburns 11. So I'd say we're even as far as talent goes, possibly a smidge ahead or a smidge behind, without digging in too much. But we have Aggies, all of who have the hearts of lions, compared to Auburns sissy lalas.

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Auburn dominated us physically last year.

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Absolutely. We were man-handled.

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Yes, we were. And I do believe that those that did the manhandling are now gone.

We will defeat Auburn in 2020, and we will defeat LSU in 2020. Alabama is the lone game that I am looking at as a loss.

Their replacements are not likely to be far off. They have been recruiting the same athletes for over a decade. The 2019 OL gets beaten by any Auburn DL the past 10 years.

Had we gotten them early again, maybe it would have given our experience an advantage. No such luck.

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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Their replacements are not likely to be far off. They have been recruiting the same athletes for over a decade. The 2019 OL gets beaten by any Auburn DL the past 10 years.

Had we gotten them early again, maybe it would have given our experience an advantage. No such luck.

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Yes. We get better but that just gets us up to where the others at the top have been for years.

I'm like the rest of you. I want to win every game and hope to play for it all. But this next year would be an improvement to just be "in" every game to the last couple plays, even if we lose. When we lost last year, it wasn't even close. LSU was over by the end of the first quarter; the other games by the end of the first half.