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I think we can go 10-2 this coming season, but my BAS has me worried

10,114 Views | 84 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by jsmc71
Jay95
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Everyone knows we will probably be favored in 9 of our first 10 games.
But my concern is that Miss. St, Ole Miss, S. Carolina are all losable games.
Hell, Arkansas could be interesting.

I sure hope our team is not taking any of these games lightly. I think winning 10 games is just as important to keep recruiting momentum going as anything else.

flame away!


ntxVol
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All those school's fans are looking at A&M as a possible win or maybe a tossup. They are trying to convince themselves their team is going to be better next season. That's how fan delusion works and everyone does it to a certain extent.

It's time for Jimbo to crush those dreams, he has the talent, just has to get it done.

Before you know it, those fans won't be looking at A&M the same way, that's when you know the Aggies have arrived.
schmellba99
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Jay95 said:

Everyone knows we will probably be favored in 9 of our first 10 games.
But my concern is that Miss. St, Ole Miss, S. Carolina are all losable games.
Hell, Arkansas could be interesting.

I sure hope our team is not taking any of these games lightly. I think winning 10 games is just as important to keep recruiting momentum going as anything else.

flame away!



Miss State - bringing in a new coach, new system, etc. and isn't world beaters in terms of talent at any position. Only X-factor is that it is the Pirate who is coaching, and we all remember the days of tech beating us like step children. Loseable? Yes, of course. Likely to happen? No.

Ole Miss - same boat, same issue, will take time to rebuild. Same scenario.

South Carolina has yet to beat us, and frankly until they do, the idea that it is some super scary game we should be losing sleep over just is something I cannot comprehend.

Arkansas is getting hype for a handful of recruits, but they are in dire straights and will be for a while. While I wish our games were not as close as they seem to be, we aren't losing to them as we have a significant talent and coaching advantage across the board.

The only real game that is close to a tossup is Auburn - because we are likely comparable in talent, and we have a crap history of stepping on our dicks while playing them.

Alabama and lsu are the two that are impossible to call until we get into the season and see what the team is capable of, and whether or not lsu can bounce back from losing so much of their team after this year.
Agsuffering@bulaw
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I would be more worried about the recruiting rankings. Bama and LSU likely have more talented rosters. Auburn's is probably comparable, but they are at home and have more high impact upperclassmen.

The expected outcome is 9-3. To outperform, we need either several break-out performances or a bunch of bounces in one of those key games.
West Point Aggie
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With all the talent we have amassed, we are (brace yourselves)

OUT
OF
EXCUSES!

Anything less than 10 wins should be viewed as utter failure...that's $7.5M/yr coach-level expectations.
Smudge
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I'll be disappointed if we don't go 11-1. We have to beat Auburn. If we lose to Bama/LSU, AND keep those respectable (within a score) we can still say we're moving in the right direction. We lose to Auburn, the season is a failure, unless we beat both bama/LSU. But if we drop auburn, chances are we are the same team as last year and wont stand a real chance against bama/LSU. Soooo, we must beat Auburn, and to show that we are taking those steps I think we have to take down one of the last two. It's time. I feel like the attitude and expectations are where they need to be (not talking about from fans, but from within the program from coaches to players). We need to go into those last games undefeated *knowing* we're going to win, not just feel like we can be competitive.

All of this said, I think we can win the SEC *if* a couple of things happen within our team. By saying that, I'm expecting each team to give us their best... we can't rely on a team having an off game to slide by them. One of these things is that our younger elites need to break out right now. Smith, Demas, Richardson, Achane, Leal, Jones, & Green, specifically. And we need to have some of the borderline elites step up. Harris, Spiller, Cupp, Big W, Johnson, & Morris, to name a few. O-line WILL be better, time will show how much, which should translate to numbers as good as or better than a 2018 Mond, which would be great. Another thing that needs to happen, and I think will happen with the added talent, is that JF needs to open up the playbook a bit. Let Mond be Mond (like we say more of in the bowl game) and use the weapons around him more often and more effectively (which we also saw in the Texas Bowl). I think if we have a handful of these young studs break out and produce big we have a real shot of running the table.

Let me hear why this is a ridiculous take...
Class of '00
Gig 'em!
TexanJeff
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If we chose next year for our first loss to Arky or South Carolina I will likely quit Aggie Football.

The Mississippi Schools should be down because of coaching changes.

Auburn, no way Jimbo loses three in a row to them.

Let's do this
Agsuffering@bulaw
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Quote:

With all the talent we have amassed, we are (brace yourselves)

OUT OF EXCUSES!

Anything less than 10 wins should be viewed as utter failure...that's $7.5M/yr coach-level expectations.

Problem is that top competition has ammassed more.

85 scholarship players. Jimbo permitted 25/year. Even a great coach misses every 4th recruit. Probably still a class away from Auburn and LSU, 2 classes from Bama.

The top competition also pay their coaches huge. 7 mil gets our foot in the door, not a miracle.
Smudge
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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

Quote:

With all the talent we have amassed, we are (brace yourselves)

OUT OF EXCUSES!

Anything less than 10 wins should be viewed as utter failure...that's $7.5M/yr coach-level expectations.

Problem is that top competition has ammassed more.

85 scholarship players. Jimbo permitted 25/year. Even a great coach misses every 4th recruit. Probably still a class away from Auburn and LSU, 2 classes from Bama.

The top competition also pay their coaches huge. 7 mil gets our foot in the door, not a miracle.
Get out of here with your logic and good sense.
Class of '00
Gig 'em!
schmellba99
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Are we really a class away from Auburn?

2019:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 11

2018:
TAMU - 17
Auburn - 12

2017:
TAMU - 13
Auburn - 9

2016:
TAMU - 18
Auburn - 9

Average:
TAMU - 13.5
Auburn - 10.25

Not that far off. Plus, Auburn has lost 6 of its starters on defense, including all 4 CB's and the interior defensive line. They have lost almost their entire starting line on offense. Nix is returning as QB, but the sophomore slump is a real thing to consider as well. I just dont' see them as a dominant team next year, and we had every opportunity to beat them this year but gave the game away. I'm not sold on them.

Granted, I"m not sold on our ability to beat them either, so there's that.
W
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Jimbo's teams have had trouble away from Kyle Field...regardless of opponent.

(other than the 2018 Gator Bowl)

that is the chief concern for 2020.

I expect the Ags to go 7-0 or 6-1 at Kyle
Smudge
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schmellba99 said:

Are we really a class away from Auburn?

2019:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 11

2018:
TAMU - 17
Auburn - 12

2017:
TAMU - 13
Auburn - 9

2016:
TAMU - 18
Auburn - 9

Average:
TAMU - 13.5
Auburn - 10.25


2020:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 7

and we were 4 last year, to Auburns 11. So I'd say we're even as far as talent goes, possibly a smidge ahead or a smidge behind, without digging in too much. But we have Aggies, all of who have the hearts of lions, compared to Auburns sissy lalas.
Class of '00
Gig 'em!
aeon-ag
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10-2? Not with Mond!!!!!!
rootube
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Call your bookie before you change your mind.
Agsuffering@bulaw
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Would love to be wrong, but yes we are probably a class away from Auburn.

Frankly, most of the 18 class is not looking good. A few will still pan out, but most that make it show something 2 years in.

Our OL struggled. Kenyon was a fish, but the others were upperclassmen. Not likely that enough step up to hit with the bigs.

The only position our DL has real depth is SDE. We dont have a proven pass rusher. Even if Donnell or one of the fish steps up and has a 10 sack season. We are still 2 DL injuries away from having a gaping hole unless several DL who did not contribute much last year step up.
HoustonAg2106
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smudge14255 said:

schmellba99 said:

Are we really a class away from Auburn?

2019:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 11

2018:
TAMU - 17
Auburn - 12

2017:
TAMU - 13
Auburn - 9

2016:
TAMU - 18
Auburn - 9

Average:
TAMU - 13.5
Auburn - 10.25


2020:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 7

and we were 4 last year, to Auburns 11. So I'd say we're even as far as talent goes, possibly a smidge ahead or a smidge behind, without digging in too much. But we have Aggies, all of who have the hearts of lions, compared to Auburns sissy lalas.


Auburn dominated us physically last year
Meximan
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schmellba99 said:

Jay95 said:

Everyone knows we will probably be favored in 9 of our first 10 games.
But my concern is that Miss. St, Ole Miss, S. Carolina are all losable games.
Hell, Arkansas could be interesting.

I sure hope our team is not taking any of these games lightly. I think winning 10 games is just as important to keep recruiting momentum going as anything else.

flame away!



Miss State - bringing in a new coach, new system, etc. and isn't world beaters in terms of talent at any position. Only X-factor is that it is the Pirate who is coaching, and we all remember the days of tech beating us like step children. Loseable? Yes, of course. Likely to happen? No.

Ole Miss - same boat, same issue, will take time to rebuild. Same scenario.

South Carolina has yet to beat us, and frankly until they do, the idea that it is some super scary game we should be losing sleep over just is something I cannot comprehend.

Arkansas is getting hype for a handful of recruits, but they are in dire straights and will be for a while. While I wish our games were not as close as they seem to be, we aren't losing to them as we have a significant talent and coaching advantage across the board.

The only real game that is close to a tossup is Auburn - because we are likely comparable in talent, and we have a crap history of stepping on our dicks while playing them.

Alabama and lsu are the two that are impossible to call until we get into the season and see what the team is capable of, and whether or not lsu can bounce back from losing so much of their team after this year.


Imagine what it'll be like when we stop stepping on this theoretical 3 foot dong and start beating people to death with it
schmellba99
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smudge14255 said:

schmellba99 said:

Are we really a class away from Auburn?

2019:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 11

2018:
TAMU - 17
Auburn - 12

2017:
TAMU - 13
Auburn - 9

2016:
TAMU - 18
Auburn - 9

Average:
TAMU - 13.5
Auburn - 10.25


2020:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 7

and we were 4 last year, to Auburns 11. So I'd say we're even as far as talent goes, possibly a smidge ahead or a smidge behind, without digging in too much. But we have Aggies, all of who have the hearts of lions, compared to Auburns sissy lalas.
I used the current rankings from 247, assume they are the revised rankings after attrition, etc.
Ag Tag
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TexanJeff said:

The Mississippi Schools should be down because of coaching changes.

They may be up because of those coaching changes.
Spyderman
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50-7
Grab some popcorn...why the ongoing cover-up? The Phenomenon: FF to 1:22:35 https://tubitv.com/movies/632920/the-phenomenon

An est. 68 MILLION Americans, including 19 MILLION Black Children, have been killed in the WOMB since 1973-act, pray and vote accordingly.

TAMU purpose statement: To develop leaders of character dedicated to serving the greater good. Team entrance song at KYLE FIELD is laced with profanity including THE Nword..
The greater good?
jsmc71
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HoustonAg2106 said:

smudge14255 said:

schmellba99 said:

Are we really a class away from Auburn?

2019:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 11

2018:
TAMU - 17
Auburn - 12

2017:
TAMU - 13
Auburn - 9

2016:
TAMU - 18
Auburn - 9

Average:
TAMU - 13.5
Auburn - 10.25


2020:
TAMU - 6
Auburn - 7

and we were 4 last year, to Auburns 11. So I'd say we're even as far as talent goes, possibly a smidge ahead or a smidge behind, without digging in too much. But we have Aggies, all of who have the hearts of lions, compared to Auburns sissy lalas.


Auburn dominated us physically last year.
Absolutely. We were man-handled.
mjhhawk
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I think most have the right idea.

If we lose any of the 9 games that aren't Auburn, Alabama and LSU it will be extremely disappointing.

Auburn is the true toss up game to see if we've moved to the upper tier of the SEC West. Beating them on the road will hopefully be the game that upgrades our season to really good and ensures 10-2 minimium pre-bowl.

LSU at home is hopefully doable. They lost a lot of talent. Let's repeat 2018. We wont be favorites but with a team this veteran I would hope we have a legitimate shot.

@ Alabama is @ Alabama. As long as Saban is there they will be the game and team standing between us and our ultimate goal.

I am more positive than most, I'd say it's 5% we win less than 9, 35% we win 9, 35% we win 10, 20% we win 11 and 5% we go undefeated.
TheWoodsAg
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West Point Aggie said:

With all the talent we have amassed, we are (brace yourselves)

OUT
OF
EXCUSES!

Anything less than 10 wins should be viewed as utter failure...that's $7.5M/yr coach-level expectations.

We have been recruiting at an elite level for 2 years, those players are underclassmen. That represents half our roster and the youngest half at that.

The teams we are chasing (Bama, LSU, UGA) have been recruiting at an elite level for 4+ years and they have a full roster and upperclassmen at that talent level.

Stop acting like we are on par yet with those teams, and quit throwing fits if we lose to them. We're two years away from having a comparable roster, have patience, enjoy the journey, we're building brick by brick.
FriskyGardenGnome
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smudge14255 said:

I'll be disappointed if we don't go 11-1. We have to beat Auburn. If we lose to Bama/LSU, AND keep those respectable (within a score) we can still say we're moving in the right direction. We lose to Auburn, the season is a failure, unless we beat both bama/LSU. But if we drop auburn, chances are we are the same team as last year and wont stand a real chance against bama/LSU. Soooo, we must beat Auburn, and to show that we are taking those steps I think we have to take down one of the last two. It's time. I feel like the attitude and expectations are where they need to be (not talking about from fans, but from within the program from coaches to players). We need to go into those last games undefeated *knowing* we're going to win, not just feel like we can be competitive.

All of this said, I think we can win the SEC *if* a couple of things happen within our team. By saying that, I'm expecting each team to give us their best... we can't rely on a team having an off game to slide by them. One of these things is that our younger elites need to break out right now. Smith, Demas, Richardson, Achane, Leal, Jones, & Green, specifically. And we need to have some of the borderline elites step up. Harris, Spiller, Cupp, Big W, Johnson, & Morris, to name a few. O-line WILL be better, time will show how much, which should translate to numbers as good as or better than a 2018 Mond, which would be great. Another thing that needs to happen, and I think will happen with the added talent, is that JF needs to open up the playbook a bit. Let Mond be Mond (like we say more of in the bowl game) and use the weapons around him more often and more effectively (which we also saw in the Texas Bowl). I think if we have a handful of these young studs break out and produce big we have a real shot of running the table.

Let me hear why this is a ridiculous take...
That's way beyond a "couple of things" happening.
greg.w.h
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10-2 with losses to LSU and Bama seems achievable. Beating one and taking a loss from someone else-thinking Auburn-would be a more promising outcome, actually. 11-1 likely is a CFP semi bid if we miss the conference championship game...
Demosthenes81
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Jay95 said:

Everyone knows we will probably be favored in 9 of our first 10 games.
But my concern is that Miss. St, Ole Miss, S. Carolina are all losable games.
Hell, Arkansas could be interesting.

I sure hope our team is not taking any of these games lightly. I think winning 10 games is just as important to keep recruiting momentum going as anything else.

flame away!



Trust in Allah, but always tie your camel.
W
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yes, that's kind of the elephant in the room.

the 2018 class has yielded O'Neal and 2 or 3 good front 7 players.

otherwise...not much else there
ClassOf17
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Depending on QB play. There should be no reason we aren't playing for the SEC champ and a spot in the playoffs.
Leander - Ag
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11-1
Bill Superman
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Y'all get your expectations correct. No wonder BAS is so prevalent.

8-4 is a failure. BAS certified

9-3 is a good season, but need to win bowl game

10-2 is a really good season

11-1 and we're in the CFP

This past season we met expectations. If we can meet them again we'll be 9-3 with a solid bowl game that we need to win for it to be successful
TopoTacos
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Ag Tag said:

TexanJeff said:

The Mississippi Schools should be down because of coaching changes.

They may be up because of those coaching changes.


Ole Miss will probably be a more competent squad right away, Kiffin is a meme at this point but he still fielded winning teams more often than not.

Miss St is completely overhauling their system and will need time to get the personnel running an Air Raid, I don't trust leach to adapt much in the meantime.

A loss to either is a really horrible showing given how experienced our squad is now.
Ugly
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I don't know why everyone think s Auburn is going to be so much more talented than us. 247 has us #12 in team talent and Auburn at #13, our 2020 class was #6 and Auburn's was #7, and Bill Connelly ranks our returning production as #16 (77%) and Auburn's as #78 (61%). This obviously doesn't give us a clear advantage over them, but it does mean that talent should not really be a concern against Auburn. We lost to them last year because we were out-coached, and our schedule never let us get into a groove because a #1 team picked us apart every other week.

9-3 is still the most likely outcome, but that is not because we have worse than coin-flip odds against Auburn, it's because few teams in the SEC are truly bad enough that you can't slip up and lose against them every now and then.
greg.w.h
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Ugly said:

I don't know why everyone think s Auburn is going to be so much more talented than us. 247 has us #12 in team talent and Auburn at #13, our 2020 class was #6 and Auburn's was #7, and Bill Connelly ranks our returning production as #16 (77%) and Auburn's as #78 (61%). This obviously doesn't give us a clear advantage over them, but it does mean that talent should not really be a concern against Auburn. We lost to them last year because we were out-coached, and our schedule never let us get into a groove because a #1 team picked us apart every other week.

9-3 is still the most likely outcome, but that is not because we have worse than coin-flip odds against Auburn, it's because few teams in the SEC are truly bad enough that you can't slip up and lose against them every now and then.
I don't think we are worse at recruiting. But they beat us on the field this year and our recruiting isn't consistently better than theirs so we either discount the rating services or expect better coaching to close the gap.

The thing I was looking at is playing Bama and LSU back to back is brutal. We might win one. We might win both. Or we might win one and lose one earlier. That's not giving them a lot of credit. Just imagining what a VERY good year might turn out in season record.
NyAggie
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Quote:

I don't think we are worse at recruiting. But they beat us on the field this year and our recruiting isn't consistently better than theirs so we either discount the rating services or expect better coaching to close the gap.


What's closing the talent gap with auburn is our last two classes plus them losing a lot of upperclassmen starters from their 2019 team

I think 9-3 is par this year with 8-4 a bogie, 10-2 a birdie and 11-1 an eagle
Agsuffering@bulaw
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Our OL got pushed around badly. Our RBs were terrible. Spiller has improved since. Our DL gave up a few big plays early b/c we failed to set an edge and/or fill. After that, the DL held up. If you want to call that being outcoached, fine.

Being on the road alone gives them a 5-10% advantage.

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