So
Many
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Many
Facts
Agsuffering@bulaw said:Quote:
Jake and company put up 28 points against both Mississippi teams last season. You should win every game you score 28 points in if your defense is doing their job.
10 or 15 years ago, yes. Today, not as clear.
1. Turnovers: Throw enough INT, you will lose, even to an inferior opponent.
2. Failure to move the chains: if your defense is facing 80 or 90 snaps bc the offense is not picking up first downs, offense's fault.
In the OM game, we picked up 13 first downs. OM picked up 30. OM ran 89 plays. We ran 62. We were 0-2 on 4th down.
AND, one of the TD was set up by a 90 yd kick return.
OM was just as much on the offense. If the offense had picked up 3 or 4 more first downs in the 2nd half, the defense probably holds on.
Hubenak protects the football. But, he is not good enough to beat a defense with either his arms or legs. They take away the RB and make him throw into tight windows. He cannot do it consistently.
The spring game means nothing. Johnny was awful at the 12 spring game.CrottyKid said:
Did you watch the Spring Game? Starkel was the best one at that time. Unless someone else improved rapidly, it was always going to be Starkel.
LOL. Best reply I've seen in these parts in a long time.Hu11abaloo said:Aggiesincebirth said:
I'm hearing Blumrick.
JFF with the help of Mike Evans and a couple future NFL 1st rounders on the OLAggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
Also as important, your're likely losing the field position battle.rbcs_2 said:
I agree with you in part, but any offense that fails to execute and goes 3 & out repeatedly is going to gas the defense. That's not limited to HUNH.
One of the things about Kingsbury that i don't think I appreciated was how well he knew when to push the gas and when to let off. Spav didn't have a good feel for it. When tu struggled under Strong and they decided to go HUNH but with the same offensive staff in place, everyone should have known it was going to fail miserably.
Watch out nail....here comes the hammer.HoustonAg2106 said:Hubenak alone makes that comparison a waste of time...texancanuck11 said:Or, you are in for a crapload of awesomeness, cause any of your 3 QBs could win the Heisman this year! Didn't Urban Meyer have that a few years ago?knoxtom said:
Sorry to be the negative guy, but if your team hasn't settled on a QB with 2 weeks to go, you are in one buttload of trouble.
.94 Correlation:Aggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
Exactly. Couldn't have said it better. Our inability to consistently sustain drives last year is primarily what forced our defense to play more snaps than literally every other team in the Power 5 conferences.Aggiesincebirth said:
Thank you for doing the research BUlaw. I've been saying that all along. Our defense was not very good but we were a score quick team then a bunch of 3 and outs. We couldn't execute on 3rd down and that contributed to losses at least as much as the defense giving up points. We played pretty well in the first half a lot of the time minus Miss St and a good part of that was our DB that got picked on the whole first half.
We HAVE to sustain drives. Sumlin used to talk about flipping the field. We need to score and when we don't we need to at least get a couple first downs per possession.
For comparison... Here are some other correlation coefficients:Twelfthman99 said:.94 Correlation:Aggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
12 - 55% (11 wins)
13 - 50% (9 wins)
14 - 41% (8 wins)
15 - 42% (8 wins)
16 - 39% (8 wins)
ghollow said:Jake and company put up 28 points against both Mississippi teams last season. You should win every game you score 28 points in if your defense is doing their job. Not sure where all the negativity comes from for Jake. I think Jake will still play a backup role this season. We don't need another one season starting QBMidwesternAg15 said:Ian Neff said:
I will say this, if Hubenak marches out there to start we're in big trouble. And I know he's a wonderful guy and goes to Breakaway and what not but we're in big trouble if he's the best we've got.
That's a bit harsh. I'm not confident any of these three will be world beaters this year, but I think that Hubenak could do well and would improve as the season went along. Maybe you could do better but I would take him over anyone who started between Johnny and knight last year.
i suggest we convert 100% of third downs. We might just win a couple more of those close ones.Twelfthman99 said:.94 Correlation:Aggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
12 - 55% (11 wins)
13 - 50% (9 wins)
14 - 41% (8 wins)
15 - 42% (8 wins)
16 - 39% (8 wins)
Some of that was having a qb that had major accuracy problems, too. Not sure the coaches understood completely what they had with Knight at that time. I agree, though, we should have milked the clock more.Aggiesincebirth said:
I agree and I think that is one of the things that has frusterated me most about our offense and Sumlin's game management.
UCLA is a great example. We got a first down with 35 seconds left in the quarter and should have taken the 15 point lead to the 4th quarter. Instead we throw and incomplete pass then run the ball for 9 yards. Then we line up on 3 & 1 in the shot gun and Knight has a terrible read on a zone read that should have been a house call be he hands it off then we punt. UCLA has their best drive of the game from their own 3 and we pick them off with 8 minutes left and a 2 score lead.
Next we run the ball for a 6 yard gain then the next play we snap it with 7 seconds left on the clock and throw a pass into double coverage to stop the clock when we are clearly running it well. Even if we run it twice and don't get the first down we punt to them with 6 minutes left and a 2 score lead. 3rd down we throw a slant for an incomplete pass and punt to them with 7:30 on the clock instead of 6 minutes.
They drive down the field after converting a 4th down with us playing prevent defense and score with 4:19 left (should have been around 1:30 left if we didn't run those 2 plays to end the third and we ran the ball at least once in the previous possession). The defense played very well until the 4th quarter when we had back to back 3 and outs.
We got the ball back with 4:10 on the clock and gave it right back to them with 3:40 on the clock... They have a freak 60 yard bomb TD and tie it up with a 2 pt conversion. Then we go 3 and out again. The defense picks them off at the 50 and we get our first first down in about a quarter and a half of football with 20 seconds left. Then we are forced to throw a hail marry to end regulation because we cant get 10 yards with 2 timeouts.
The defense kept the best QB in the country to 120 yards passing until the 4th quarter but the offense ran about 20 plays, ran only 2 total minutes off the clock, and got 1 first down. The offense was the one that almost blew that game not the defense. I would have to re-watch Ole Miss but I can bet we didn't convert very many offensive 3rd downs and they finally got their offense going.
SlackerAg said:
Use a 3 QB backfield to keep the opponent guessing.