So
Many
Facts
Many
Facts
Speculation mill says it is likely to be Starkel.
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Last: 6 yr ago by Bunk Moreland
Agsuffering@bulaw said:Quote:
Jake and company put up 28 points against both Mississippi teams last season. You should win every game you score 28 points in if your defense is doing their job.
10 or 15 years ago, yes. Today, not as clear.
1. Turnovers: Throw enough INT, you will lose, even to an inferior opponent.
2. Failure to move the chains: if your defense is facing 80 or 90 snaps bc the offense is not picking up first downs, offense's fault.
In the OM game, we picked up 13 first downs. OM picked up 30. OM ran 89 plays. We ran 62. We were 0-2 on 4th down.
AND, one of the TD was set up by a 90 yd kick return.
OM was just as much on the offense. If the offense had picked up 3 or 4 more first downs in the 2nd half, the defense probably holds on.
Hubenak protects the football. But, he is not good enough to beat a defense with either his arms or legs. They take away the RB and make him throw into tight windows. He cannot do it consistently.
Mic drop.
In response to those above.
- yes I know he was red shirting but if he was better then take the shirt off...remember when Jake went down it was thought to be season ending and we had half a season left
- no the weight room isn't near that big a deal for a QB as it is with other positions
None of know if Starkel will be any good but I tend to agree with most we have seen enough of Jake to know what he is. He isn't bad, I just think most are hoping we have a better option.
- yes I know he was red shirting but if he was better then take the shirt off...remember when Jake went down it was thought to be season ending and we had half a season left
- no the weight room isn't near that big a deal for a QB as it is with other positions
None of know if Starkel will be any good but I tend to agree with most we have seen enough of Jake to know what he is. He isn't bad, I just think most are hoping we have a better option.
Did you watch the Spring Game? Starkel was the best one at that time. Unless someone else improved rapidly, it was always going to be Starkel.
Thank you for doing the research BUlaw. I've been saying that all along. Our defense was not very good but we were a score quick team then a bunch of 3 and outs. We couldn't execute on 3rd down and that contributed to losses at least as much as the defense giving up points. We played pretty well in the first half a lot of the time minus Miss St and a good part of that was our DB that got picked on the whole first half.
We HAVE to sustain drives. Sumlin used to talk about flipping the field. We need to score and when we don't we need to at least get a couple first downs per possession.
We HAVE to sustain drives. Sumlin used to talk about flipping the field. We need to score and when we don't we need to at least get a couple first downs per possession.
The spring game means nothing. Johnny was awful at the 12 spring game.CrottyKid said:
Did you watch the Spring Game? Starkel was the best one at that time. Unless someone else improved rapidly, it was always going to be Starkel.
I dont think most HCs fully appreciate the collateral impact of hurry-up on the game.* Even Bama's defense sucked after defending 90 snaps. The Championship game is the epitome of this new reality:
Bama lost to Clemson by 4. Other teams would have lost by much more. Clemson ran 99 plays to Bama's 66. Clemson picked up 31 first downs to Bama's 16. Clemson was 7/18 on 3rd down compared to Bama's 2/15.
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Now, part of the Mississippi losses were on Chavis and Sumlin. If your defense is not deep or good enough to defend 80 snaps, then do something about it- get aggressive with playcalling. Blitz/Stunt every other play.
My guess is that Chavis blitzed around 25%.
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*NOT advocating rule changes like Saban wants. Just saying HCs must adjust to deal with it.
Bama lost to Clemson by 4. Other teams would have lost by much more. Clemson ran 99 plays to Bama's 66. Clemson picked up 31 first downs to Bama's 16. Clemson was 7/18 on 3rd down compared to Bama's 2/15.
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Now, part of the Mississippi losses were on Chavis and Sumlin. If your defense is not deep or good enough to defend 80 snaps, then do something about it- get aggressive with playcalling. Blitz/Stunt every other play.
My guess is that Chavis blitzed around 25%.
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*NOT advocating rule changes like Saban wants. Just saying HCs must adjust to deal with it.
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
If Jake is in the two-deep then we are in for a looong season.
I like Jake. If he's the starter, I'll support him 100%.
LOL. Best reply I've seen in these parts in a long time.Hu11abaloo said:Aggiesincebirth said:
I'm hearing Blumrick.
I read somewhere that Mazzone really likes Jake because he is a hard worker and does everything they ask of him and it's close between him and Starkel but Starkel has the advantage right now.
The Stark at least has a cool name ... watch out for The Stark after Dark...
Winston's Heisman should have been Johnny's.
JFF with the help of Mike Evans and a couple future NFL 1st rounders on the OLAggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
Offense is about controlling the ball and ultimately scoring.
There are two approaches to ball control in todays game. Dominate TOP or dominate offensive plays.
We've all seen the weakness in TOP control when we play Arkansas. The limit in number of plays means a low margin of error for both teams, and especially the team controlling the clock.
Sumlin seems to recognize this and likes to control tempo and speed up the offense when we are executing in order to rack off alot of plays. The problem we've all seen with HUNH is when the offense is not executing we will go 3 & Out and gas our defense. I believe it to be better though because if the offense is executing there's a much higher margin of error versus Bielema Ball. Clemson is the current model of this.
There are two approaches to ball control in todays game. Dominate TOP or dominate offensive plays.
We've all seen the weakness in TOP control when we play Arkansas. The limit in number of plays means a low margin of error for both teams, and especially the team controlling the clock.
Sumlin seems to recognize this and likes to control tempo and speed up the offense when we are executing in order to rack off alot of plays. The problem we've all seen with HUNH is when the offense is not executing we will go 3 & Out and gas our defense. I believe it to be better though because if the offense is executing there's a much higher margin of error versus Bielema Ball. Clemson is the current model of this.
I agree with you in part, but any offense that fails to execute and goes 3 & out repeatedly is going to gas the defense. That's not limited to HUNH.
One of the things about Kingsbury that i don't think I appreciated was how well he knew when to push the gas and when to let off. Spav didn't have a good feel for it. When tu struggled under Strong and they decided to go HUNH but with the same offensive staff in place, everyone should have known it was going to fail miserably.
One of the things about Kingsbury that i don't think I appreciated was how well he knew when to push the gas and when to let off. Spav didn't have a good feel for it. When tu struggled under Strong and they decided to go HUNH but with the same offensive staff in place, everyone should have known it was going to fail miserably.
Also as important, your're likely losing the field position battle.rbcs_2 said:
I agree with you in part, but any offense that fails to execute and goes 3 & out repeatedly is going to gas the defense. That's not limited to HUNH.
One of the things about Kingsbury that i don't think I appreciated was how well he knew when to push the gas and when to let off. Spav didn't have a good feel for it. When tu struggled under Strong and they decided to go HUNH but with the same offensive staff in place, everyone should have known it was going to fail miserably.
Watch out nail....here comes the hammer.HoustonAg2106 said:Hubenak alone makes that comparison a waste of time...texancanuck11 said:Or, you are in for a crapload of awesomeness, cause any of your 3 QBs could win the Heisman this year! Didn't Urban Meyer have that a few years ago?knoxtom said:
Sorry to be the negative guy, but if your team hasn't settled on a QB with 2 weeks to go, you are in one buttload of trouble.
I agree and I think that is one of the things that has frusterated me most about our offense and Sumlin's game management.
UCLA is a great example. We got a first down with 35 seconds left in the quarter and should have taken the 15 point lead to the 4th quarter. Instead we throw and incomplete pass then run the ball for 9 yards. Then we line up on 3 & 1 in the shot gun and Knight has a terrible read on a zone read that should have been a house call be he hands it off then we punt. UCLA has their best drive of the game from their own 3 and we pick them off with 8 minutes left and a 2 score lead.
Next we run the ball for a 6 yard gain then the next play we snap it with 7 seconds left on the clock and throw a pass into double coverage to stop the clock when we are clearly running it well. Even if we run it twice and don't get the first down we punt to them with 6 minutes left and a 2 score lead. 3rd down we throw a slant for an incomplete pass and punt to them with 7:30 on the clock instead of 6 minutes.
They drive down the field after converting a 4th down with us playing prevent defense and score with 4:19 left (should have been around 1:30 left if we didn't run those 2 plays to end the third and we ran the ball at least once in the previous possession). The defense played very well until the 4th quarter when we had back to back 3 and outs.
We got the ball back with 4:10 on the clock and gave it right back to them with 3:40 on the clock... They have a freak 60 yard bomb TD and tie it up with a 2 pt conversion. Then we go 3 and out again. The defense picks them off at the 50 and we get our first first down in about a quarter and a half of football with 20 seconds left. Then we are forced to throw a hail marry to end regulation because we cant get 10 yards with 2 timeouts.
The defense kept the best QB in the country to 120 yards passing until the 4th quarter but the offense ran about 20 plays, ran only 2 total minutes off the clock, and got 1 first down. The offense was the one that almost blew that game not the defense. I would have to re-watch Ole Miss but I can bet we didn't convert very many offensive 3rd downs and they finally got their offense going.
UCLA is a great example. We got a first down with 35 seconds left in the quarter and should have taken the 15 point lead to the 4th quarter. Instead we throw and incomplete pass then run the ball for 9 yards. Then we line up on 3 & 1 in the shot gun and Knight has a terrible read on a zone read that should have been a house call be he hands it off then we punt. UCLA has their best drive of the game from their own 3 and we pick them off with 8 minutes left and a 2 score lead.
Next we run the ball for a 6 yard gain then the next play we snap it with 7 seconds left on the clock and throw a pass into double coverage to stop the clock when we are clearly running it well. Even if we run it twice and don't get the first down we punt to them with 6 minutes left and a 2 score lead. 3rd down we throw a slant for an incomplete pass and punt to them with 7:30 on the clock instead of 6 minutes.
They drive down the field after converting a 4th down with us playing prevent defense and score with 4:19 left (should have been around 1:30 left if we didn't run those 2 plays to end the third and we ran the ball at least once in the previous possession). The defense played very well until the 4th quarter when we had back to back 3 and outs.
We got the ball back with 4:10 on the clock and gave it right back to them with 3:40 on the clock... They have a freak 60 yard bomb TD and tie it up with a 2 pt conversion. Then we go 3 and out again. The defense picks them off at the 50 and we get our first first down in about a quarter and a half of football with 20 seconds left. Then we are forced to throw a hail marry to end regulation because we cant get 10 yards with 2 timeouts.
The defense kept the best QB in the country to 120 yards passing until the 4th quarter but the offense ran about 20 plays, ran only 2 total minutes off the clock, and got 1 first down. The offense was the one that almost blew that game not the defense. I would have to re-watch Ole Miss but I can bet we didn't convert very many offensive 3rd downs and they finally got their offense going.
.94 Correlation:Aggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
12 - 55% (11 wins)
13 - 50% (9 wins)
14 - 41% (8 wins)
15 - 42% (8 wins)
16 - 39% (8 wins)
OP should replace 'Speculation mill' with 'logic'
Exactly. Couldn't have said it better. Our inability to consistently sustain drives last year is primarily what forced our defense to play more snaps than literally every other team in the Power 5 conferences.Aggiesincebirth said:
Thank you for doing the research BUlaw. I've been saying that all along. Our defense was not very good but we were a score quick team then a bunch of 3 and outs. We couldn't execute on 3rd down and that contributed to losses at least as much as the defense giving up points. We played pretty well in the first half a lot of the time minus Miss St and a good part of that was our DB that got picked on the whole first half.
We HAVE to sustain drives. Sumlin used to talk about flipping the field. We need to score and when we don't we need to at least get a couple first downs per possession.
If we have a prayer at 8-10 wins this year it will HAVE to be because of a lot more 1st downs, getting better on 3rd down, and therefore sustaining drives.
For comparison... Here are some other correlation coefficients:Twelfthman99 said:.94 Correlation:Aggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
12 - 55% (11 wins)
13 - 50% (9 wins)
14 - 41% (8 wins)
15 - 42% (8 wins)
16 - 39% (8 wins)
First Downs - .83
Scoring - .77
Total Plays - .78
Total Offense - .87
ghollow said:Jake and company put up 28 points against both Mississippi teams last season. You should win every game you score 28 points in if your defense is doing their job. Not sure where all the negativity comes from for Jake. I think Jake will still play a backup role this season. We don't need another one season starting QBMidwesternAg15 said:Ian Neff said:
I will say this, if Hubenak marches out there to start we're in big trouble. And I know he's a wonderful guy and goes to Breakaway and what not but we're in big trouble if he's the best we've got.
That's a bit harsh. I'm not confident any of these three will be world beaters this year, but I think that Hubenak could do well and would improve as the season went along. Maybe you could do better but I would take him over anyone who started between Johnny and knight last year.
Not in today's game. Even Alabama gave up 43 to Ole miss, 30 to Arkansas, and 35 to Clemson.
And that's with a more ball control offense than we have. Our defense had to defend so many more plays and possessions than their defense did. If they had our offense, their defense likely would have fared even worse.
We play an offense that relies more on scoring than teams like bama and lsu because we tend to have more possessions than other teams. Therefore we need to score more. Their offense obviously need to score, but even possessions where they don't they do their job if they pick up 2-3 first downs and give their defense a rest. As opposed to us. When we didn't score, it was almost always a 3 and out or really quick possession.
i suggest we convert 100% of third downs. We might just win a couple more of those close ones.Twelfthman99 said:.94 Correlation:Aggiesincebirth said:
I don't have the time at the moment to look it up but I would venture to say there is a direct correlation between our offensive 3rd down conversion rate and our number of wins the past 5 seasons under Sumlin. Johnny was the best at turning 3rd and long into a first down. It would be interesting to see the stats to see those correlations. We were 1-2 first downs from blowing out UCLA and UT as well as securing a win vs Ole Miss.
12 - 55% (11 wins)
13 - 50% (9 wins)
14 - 41% (8 wins)
15 - 42% (8 wins)
16 - 39% (8 wins)
Thank you for researching that. Those stats are very telling. It was obvious to me that we would go out and score pretty quickly and build leads on big plays in the first half but couldn't sustain drives and second half our offense was very inefficient. Our defense did really well most first halfs then even into the deep third quarter they played well but late in the third and most of the 4th it fell off.
I would be willing to bet if you had an defensive efficiency curve it would look good for 2 and a half quarters, but lack off offense sustaining drives took a toll on us. The Ole Miss game the defense didn't play awful in the 4th quarter Ole Miss just made a lot of good plays at clutch times (1 handed 40 yard catch tipped in the air 3 times). They didn't play well but the offense didn't help either. I'm pretty sure our offense only had 2-3 long drives all game that led to TDs. The rest were punts. Not defending the defense just saying.
I would be willing to bet if you had an defensive efficiency curve it would look good for 2 and a half quarters, but lack off offense sustaining drives took a toll on us. The Ole Miss game the defense didn't play awful in the 4th quarter Ole Miss just made a lot of good plays at clutch times (1 handed 40 yard catch tipped in the air 3 times). They didn't play well but the offense didn't help either. I'm pretty sure our offense only had 2-3 long drives all game that led to TDs. The rest were punts. Not defending the defense just saying.
which one transfers?
Under Sumlin, the strongest correlations are really greatest on the offensive statistics... I just ran the correlations between defensive stats and wins and they are extremely low correlations...
Opponents First Down - .16
Opponents Scoring - .23
Opponents Total Plays - .07
Opponents Total Offense - .3
Opponents 3rd Down Conversion %age - .5
Our two worst defenses under Sumlin were 2013 and 2016. Offense was the difference between 8 wins and 9 wins. Our greatest influencing factor has been our 3rd Down Conversion Rate and our Total Offense statistic.
Opponents First Down - .16
Opponents Scoring - .23
Opponents Total Plays - .07
Opponents Total Offense - .3
Opponents 3rd Down Conversion %age - .5
Our two worst defenses under Sumlin were 2013 and 2016. Offense was the difference between 8 wins and 9 wins. Our greatest influencing factor has been our 3rd Down Conversion Rate and our Total Offense statistic.
Was 2014 not worse than 2016? In 2014 opponents had 365 point against us and 2016 had 319. That was just my math adding up the scores against opponents but also didn't take into account special teams and defensive TDs scored against us.
What was used to determine that 2014 wasn't worse than 2016?
What was used to determine that 2014 wasn't worse than 2016?
It's kind of like asking which turd smells worse...
An argument can be made for either. Beyond scoring, I looked at 1st downs given up, total yardage conceded, third down conversion rates, and total plays run against us... In 14 we gave up more yards and points, third down conversions are about the same, but we gave up more plays in 16 and more first downs. Pretty much a wash, but in the end, none of these stats really had much of a correlation with our win column.
An argument can be made for either. Beyond scoring, I looked at 1st downs given up, total yardage conceded, third down conversion rates, and total plays run against us... In 14 we gave up more yards and points, third down conversions are about the same, but we gave up more plays in 16 and more first downs. Pretty much a wash, but in the end, none of these stats really had much of a correlation with our win column.
Some of that was having a qb that had major accuracy problems, too. Not sure the coaches understood completely what they had with Knight at that time. I agree, though, we should have milked the clock more.Aggiesincebirth said:
I agree and I think that is one of the things that has frusterated me most about our offense and Sumlin's game management.
UCLA is a great example. We got a first down with 35 seconds left in the quarter and should have taken the 15 point lead to the 4th quarter. Instead we throw and incomplete pass then run the ball for 9 yards. Then we line up on 3 & 1 in the shot gun and Knight has a terrible read on a zone read that should have been a house call be he hands it off then we punt. UCLA has their best drive of the game from their own 3 and we pick them off with 8 minutes left and a 2 score lead.
Next we run the ball for a 6 yard gain then the next play we snap it with 7 seconds left on the clock and throw a pass into double coverage to stop the clock when we are clearly running it well. Even if we run it twice and don't get the first down we punt to them with 6 minutes left and a 2 score lead. 3rd down we throw a slant for an incomplete pass and punt to them with 7:30 on the clock instead of 6 minutes.
They drive down the field after converting a 4th down with us playing prevent defense and score with 4:19 left (should have been around 1:30 left if we didn't run those 2 plays to end the third and we ran the ball at least once in the previous possession). The defense played very well until the 4th quarter when we had back to back 3 and outs.
We got the ball back with 4:10 on the clock and gave it right back to them with 3:40 on the clock... They have a freak 60 yard bomb TD and tie it up with a 2 pt conversion. Then we go 3 and out again. The defense picks them off at the 50 and we get our first first down in about a quarter and a half of football with 20 seconds left. Then we are forced to throw a hail marry to end regulation because we cant get 10 yards with 2 timeouts.
The defense kept the best QB in the country to 120 yards passing until the 4th quarter but the offense ran about 20 plays, ran only 2 total minutes off the clock, and got 1 first down. The offense was the one that almost blew that game not the defense. I would have to re-watch Ole Miss but I can bet we didn't convert very many offensive 3rd downs and they finally got their offense going.
SlackerAg said:
Use a 3 QB backfield to keep the opponent guessing.
Recipe for disaster. Build your offense around your QB's strengths and weaknesses.
While Mazzone is a slight upgrade, that series of playcalling was definitely Spazztastic
I don't disagree at all it just seemed like we had to score 50 points in 2014 in order to win. Other teams sliced us up almost every possession in 2013 and 2014 and it seemed like 2016, even though certain games we gave up a ton of yards, the defense kept us in most games.
Also last year it seemed like all of our stud defensive players got injured at different times throughout the season (Myles, Willis, Watts, Wilson, Evans). Neither was a good defense but my memory seems to give me more nightmares of 2014's defense.
Also last year it seemed like all of our stud defensive players got injured at different times throughout the season (Myles, Willis, Watts, Wilson, Evans). Neither was a good defense but my memory seems to give me more nightmares of 2014's defense.
AeroAg2012
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Angry Beaver
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sealyag
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Bruce Almighty
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Harry Stone
we just won 4 straight series against 4 ranked opponents.
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AggieBucksJB
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AggieBucksJB
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country
we just won 4 straight series against 4 ranked opponents.
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