UPDATE! 🍒 We are getting closer to having our first named storm of the season with this upgrade to a 70% chance of cyclone formation in the SW Gulf of Mexico. It's gon' rain, Texas!!! pic.twitter.com/Yz3Ko11X0G

— Texas Storm Chasers ⚡ (@TxStormChasers) June 16, 2024

Quote:

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A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf and
runs from 24N96W to a 1005 mb low pressure located near northern
Guatemala/Mexico border. The pressure gradient between a ridge
across the eastern Gulf and the low supports moderate to fresh
winds S of 25N and E of 92W, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range E of 90W, and 2-4 ft W of
90W. Showers and thunderstorms are flared-up over the north-
central and NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a
tropical cyclone to develop from this broad area of low pressure,
and a tropical depression could form could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of
development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are
likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Active
convection across the southeast Gulf, along with increasing winds
to gale-force and rough seas, is expected to shift westward with
this system Mon through the middle part of the week, impacting
the south-central and northwest Gulf.

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Looking like rain for us starting Tuesday afternoon and getting heavy throughout the week after.

I hope so, but I'm skeptical. Seen too many of these type forecasts fizzle out. Moves west quicker than they think. Slides by us to the east and the upper coast gets most of it.

But still, I hope they're right!

Usually 3 days out or closer we're gonna get something.

Yep, I don't usually believe them until I hear the rumbling of thunder and see the pouring rain.

My company partners with somebody called StormGeo for weather forecasting across the state. We just received something saying heavy rain, as much as 6 - 12 inches, expected from south of Brownsville to northeast of Victoria on Tuesday and Wednesday.

NWS showing 6 - 8 inches over the next 5 days in central Willacy and Cameron counties and east.

Maybe it's really going to happen.

Wet side

May Lyin' Larry RIP, and I do miss him as he was a great guy, but years of predictions of impending doom upon the RGV to include howling wind, driving rain and biblical floods that never happen have tapered my concern meter.

Remember 2011 or so, there was a drought that ate a hurricane, I mean we watched it evaporate on radar. Was the craziest thing I have ever seen. Nary a sprinkle in the RGV.

With all that being said, my gosh Northern Mex and the RGV can really use the rain, but more importantly the lakes need it.

lol look at the moisture. Extreme

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=conus×pan=24hrs&anim=html5

I finally believe we're getting some good rain the next couple of days. But I can't believe how some people are over-reacting to this. HEB out of water and various other things. Miles long lines for sandbags. Etc. Just doesn't seem quite that apocalyptic to me. Except for the fact it's ruining my golf on my day off tomorrow!

Rant over. Stay safe everybody.

Underwhelming so far, anybody have any thing crazy to report yet?

oldord said:

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Underwhelming so far, anybody have any thing crazy to report yet?

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It's just getting started. Now if we don't have much in 24-36 hours then we've missed it but I think McAllen will have 3+ inches by then.

We've had some pretty heavy bands come through Harlingen in the last couple of hours.

Yeah, we've gotten a few inches so far in Weslaco.

But nothing that we expected earlier.

They're expecting 2-4 more with this system thru Thursday night and then a other 2-4 with the next system over the weekend into Tuesday.

Turd floater in Harlingen right now!

We are currently monitoring the potential for another tropical system to develop this weekend in the Bay of Campeche.🌧️ At this time the main impacts will be heavy rainfall, increased risk of rip currents, and the potential minor coastal flooding. #RGV #SPI #TXwx pic.twitter.com/nUG7XFp1MQ

— NWS Brownsville (@NWSBrownsville) June 20, 2024

I would be interested to see what all the rainfall totals were across the RGV. I am outta town and can't really find any reliable info that jibes. Some sites saying 2.25" some saying almost 4" for the McAllen area. My renters in PI said that their kinda crappy guage measured out at just under 5" for the two days. Quien sabe. But yet again it wasn't biblical floods.

I'm hearing generally 4 - 6" in Cameron County.

This was as of 7a Thursday

Long time between now and then, but not crazy about the model trends right now on June 30.

[url=https://ibb.co/Hz1kTtz][/url]

Storms that far south when they are that far east, early in the year when there is that high pressure over the South East have typically come close to the western Gulf Coast. I watched the Tropical Tidbits update from yesterday and he was saying that the sheer south and east of Jamaica will be stout, most models are having it be a week depression as it makes contact with the Yucatan. But who the hell knows.

Hurricane Alex landed south of us in June 2010, I remember it well. 2010 was a big time active storm year. All summer long.

Also had like a June 20th Tropical Storm come ashore in the early 90's, I remember it was very early. All the Houston, SA, and Corpus stations had live coverage from Isla Blanca, I thought it was a tad bit much. Just some rain and rough surf.

Yeah, except for about a 6 - 7 year stretch in the late 70's, early 80's, I've lived in the RGV since 1961. I never like seeing those low latitude storm tracks. I'm seeing they're calling for weakening to Cat 2 by the time it gets to the Yucatan. Then it has to survive crossing there. I'm not expecting a major storm here at this point, but my wife and I are making sure some of our normal precautions are up to speed.

The same thing that brings us that howling SE wind 10.5 months a year also protects the RGV from most direct hit hurricanes. Beulah being an exception and a couple of others way back in the 1800's. There was a storm in 1933 that did considerable damage to Matamoros and Brownsville/PI, and it was an early hurricane as well.

All things being equal, these early season hurricanes don't give me the vapors like the ones in late August and early September. Sadly deep STX is gonna have to have a hurricane of some kind to get the water situation leveled out for a few years.

Seems to be trending a little further south now.

Lol old record was good ole Allen. August 5th!!!

This is July 2nd boys.

#Hurricane #Beryl currently is a Category 5 w/ max winds of 165 mph - the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record, breaking old record of 160 mph set by Emily (2005). Prior record for earliest calendar year Atlantic hurricane with 165 mph max winds is Allen (1980) on 5 August pic.twitter.com/JaZgoXQLiX

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 2, 2024