GFS brings it in as a Cat 2 around Port Mansfield or so Sunday morning to mid-day

Official forecast still has it as a tropical storm coming in just south of the RGV. But everything seems to be trending north with each new update.
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Y'all be safe

Last 2 updates have it coming in just south of the border. I won't be too surprised if it doesn't change a whole lot going forward. Good news is that they have it coming in as a tropical storm. Supposed to get beat up by dry air and wind shear.

Latest update has it reaching hurricane status in the gulf.

I would be pretty surprised if that doesn't happen.



Levi is always really good:

I'm not planning on boarding windows at this point. Hope it doesn't spin up real quick once it comes off the Yucatan.

Based on my recollections, which aren't always that accurate, if it gets torn up over the Yucatan and comes out as a blob what I remember happening with those storms is that they tend to drift further westward before intensifying. The storms that rush across the Yucatan and remain decently formed tend to pull further north. Where it comes across the Yucatan is going to be real interesting.

Water in the Bay of Campeche and mid gulf is pretty warm.

By the shifting track and ambiguity it seems to me that the forecasters aren't particularly confident on all these things.

Looking at the historical track of Allen in 1980, this one is a little bit due south of where Allen ran. Not that I am comparing the storm and storm strengths. As August is always a riskier month for Hurricanes. But the track is one that has historically happened a few times.

If it does come into N. Mexico or STX, I hope it isn't too strong. I have a gut feeling it is gonna end up north of the RGV.

RGV AG said:

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By the shifting track and ambiguity it seems to me that the forecasters aren't particularly confident on all these things.

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I really don't think the Gulf Coast landfall track has shifted much at all the last 3 days. Pretty much pointed towards Northern Mexico/South Texas since at least Sunday when I really started paying attention.

And I'm talking about the NHC forecasts. I pay more attention to them and trust them more than others.

RGV AG said:

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Based on my recollections, which aren't always that accurate, if it gets torn up over the Yucatan and comes out as a blob what I remember happening with those storms is that they tend to drift further westward before intensifying. The storms that rush across the Yucatan and remain decently formed tend to pull further north.

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That's absolutely how it works.

The weaker the storm, the more west it gets and the stronger storms tend to get pulled further north.

Beryl doing Beryl things again this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters taking off soon and we should have a better read of its intensity in a few hours. Certainly continues to overachieve in the face of moderate wind shear. pic.twitter.com/Y3smnjGXso

— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) July 4, 2024

BREAKING NEWS: Aircraft recon has measured a 964 mb central pressure, down double digits with an intensifying Hurricane Beryl on approach to the northern tip of the Yucatan! This also means a stronger TC entering the western Gulf of Mexico. This data is available at… pic.twitter.com/PqzE1sRryO

— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 5, 2024

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Well, I think I might be putting some boards up this weekend unless there's a big change on Friday.

Whoa, pretty big jump north for landfall with the newest advisory.
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Guidance slowly moving north now

Where and when it comes off the Yucatan is going to be the lynch pin in this deal, I do believe. Watching it on radar right now it appears that creeping northern motion it had for the last 12 to 18 hours has decreased a bit. But my dumbass ain't trained on this stuff.

PJYoung said:

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Guidance slowly moving north now

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Trending pretty badly for us down this way on the coast. This thing could go closer to Louisiana before it's said and done No one really knows. All I know is I'm getting ready for it as if I will get a direct hit.

My advice at this point is simple.

Tapense pero no sean tapados.

This thing could go anywhere at this point. It may impact the RGV directly or indirectly. Prepare thyself either way.

I'm a lot less worried about it now than when I went to bed at midnight last night, when it looked like it was going to track up the river. I was already thinking about some south and east facing windows I wanted to board. Not going to do any boarding up now with this 10 a.m. advisory. I think landfall might very well continue to shift north.
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I would say wait until tonight if you can or even early Saturday morning.

When it reappears out in the gulf then the center will reorganize and it will be game on.

Pretty complicated at the moment but we should have a really good idea tomorrow morning early. I'm guessing we're in for some rapid intensification to a 3 if it stays out over the gulf for a Rockport/Corpus hit.

Very tricky forecast - if the storm comes inland sooner, this may not matter (except for juicing rainfall totals). If it stays offshore and rebuilds a core while interacting favorably with the Jet, we could see some non-linear intensification.

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) July 5, 2024

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When it reappears out in the gulf then the center will reorganize and it will be game on.

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Totally agree with this. They probably are not sure where the center/eye will re-form after crossing the Yucatan.

PJYoung said:

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I would say wait until tonight if you can or even early Saturday morning.

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Saturday morning is always golf. Can't let something like a potential hurricane affect that!

I always (somewhat) jokingly say that I'm not going to put up any boards until the eye is at the mouth of the river. I could get it done Sunday if I really need to.

Duckhook said:

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PJYoung said:

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I would say wait until tonight if you can or even early Saturday morning.

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Saturday morning is always golf. Can't let something like a potential hurricane affect that!

I always (somewhat) jokingly say that I'm not going to put up any boards until the eye is at the mouth of the river. I could get it done Sunday if I really need to.

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Dude, I've had terrible back pain since Monday just jumping up out of a squat due to some surprise knee pain.

Don't take it for granted! Been playing 3-4 rounds a week for a long time.

PJYoung said:

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Duckhook said:

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PJYoung said:

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I would say wait until tonight if you can or even early Saturday morning.

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Saturday morning is always golf. Can't let something like a potential hurricane affect that!

I always (somewhat) jokingly say that I'm not going to put up any boards until the eye is at the mouth of the river. I could get it done Sunday if I really need to.

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Dude, I've had terrible back pain since Monday just jumping up out of a squat due to some surprise knee pain.

Don't take it for granted! Been playing 3-4 rounds a week for a long time.

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Logged 132 18-hole rounds last year. If there's not electricity in the air or icicles hanging off my nose, I don't miss too many available days to play.

Not to derail, but I've been doing this golf specific exercise program called Par4success since November of last year. It's made a world of difference in my flexibility, and has helped me both on and off the course. At 68, I'm testing out at swing speed +/- 100 mph, which is an increase of at least 4 - 5 mph since I started the program.

Back to Beryl. 1:00 advisory still has it tracking just offshore SPI, but a lot of chatter about it turning just a little bit more north before landfall.

Ha I just looked it up - 130 rounds for me in 2023 and I was at 84 rounds (!) thru the end of June 2024 before this BS flared up.

We outta the cone now. Doubt McAllen sees more than a tenth or two of rain. Heads up Rockport!

Dry air messing with it as well. They don't expect much organization for another 24 hours or so. Then it could get it's act together quickly as it approaches the coast Sunday.

PJYoung said:

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Pretty complicated at the moment but we should have a really good idea tomorrow morning early. I'm guessing we're in for some rapid intensification to a 3 if it stays out over the gulf for a Rockport/Corpus hit.

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Glad this was wrong.

The dry air from the upper level low to the west and 10-15 knot shear never let it do the rapid intensification thing. It was still a nasty blow for Houston for a weak hurricane.

They got whacked by an intensifying Cat 1. 2 million without power and 10+ inches of rain in spots.

I knew that 5 or 6 day forecast track was too good to be true for our empty water supply out west.

Finally got some rain today!

At 2:41 PM CDT, 2 NW Combes [Cameron Co, TX] Local Official reports Landspout. City of Combes shared picture of landspout northeast of Woods Road just before 3 pm. Radar estimated time and location. #txwx https://t.co/mhqinHeOy2 pic.twitter.com/v9LdfJvBvM

— IEMBot BRO (@iembot_bro) July 8, 2024

Got a good heavy rain in Harlingen between about 4 - 5:30. Had to have been at least an inch at my house.

Tropical models still show nada thru August 7th but we are still 6 weeks away from peak hurricane season. Beryl was a whacky weird extreme aberration as a Cat 5 on July 2nd.

Some models trying to bring a Cat 2 into the mid Texas coast late next week.

Waaaayyyy too soon to get worked up about it.

I'm ready for the fall now.

No GFS, let's not do this.

Monday to Friday next week

Monitoring a tropical disturbance near the Windward Islands. Conditions generally favorable for some development this next week while the system moves over the Caribbean. Too early to determine what impacts on the Mid TX Coast. More info: https://t.co/DaqPIW3QfH#txwx #stxwx pic.twitter.com/aUU0bYxqhv

— NWS Corpus Christi (@NWSCorpus) August 5, 2024