Charlie Murphy said:

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I didnt know planning a vacation during a cetain 5 month span is a flex. Should we all just sit at home and quiver in fear?

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I like to go to PV during August. It's a little warm, but it's the off-season so there's a lot fewer people there and everything is cheaper.

Ryan the Temp said:

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Charlie Murphy said:

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I didnt know planning a vacation during a cetain 5 month span is a flex. Should we all just sit at home and quiver in fear?

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I like to go to PV during August. It's a little warm, but it's the off-season so there's a lot fewer people there and everything is cheaper.

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I don't like spending money almost as I don't like strange people. First week of school vacations are the best.

Models seem to be coming into better agreement for a storm developing in the southern gulf later next week. The Euro had been the hold out, showing a more southerly track across the Yucatan by an open wave. It still shows a slower development more to the SW than the rest of the models, but all of them now show a strong TS or hurricane developing late in the week and most show it coming ashore between NO and the Florida Panhandle around the 29th or 30th. Being 10 days out, the landfall location is unlikely to be terribly accurate, and it will depend on the timing of the front coming through ahead of the storm picking it up. But folks along the Gulf Coast (particularly the central and eastern gulf coast) might want to start paying more attention in the next few days.

First run where the GFS and EURO ensembles are being consistent on the general area of the low pressure forming around the 24th. After that there is still a lot of uncertainty. By Monday evening there should be a much better idea of how everything will play out.

GFS ensembles: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2024092018&fh=90

Euro ensembles: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2024092012&fh=12

Blue star for you! Priceless

Anyone notice their street lights being more visible now, after all the trimming?

The dog and I both looked up when they came on tonight around 7. They had gotten pretty blocked out in our neighborhood by all the "beautiful mature trees" that were just waiting for the wind to pick up. Just walked outside again and I can actually see the nearby streetlights for the first time in years.

Captain Winky said:

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*Tommy Lee I Don't Care.gif*

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Overnight GFS/EURO ensembles on https://t.co/j6cXc9FWby. Huge consistency. EURO catching up to the GFS. Timing here Friday. Many already make landfall by then. Getting real Florida IMO. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/j652aq388q

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) September 22, 2024

batchuser said:

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These armchair meteorologists need to get laid for real

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That's not how it works.

Catching a break on this one. Models showing strong storm making landfall Thursdayish.

Someone's weather man was crying because of this storm?
https://texags.com/forums/34/topics/3492184

ETA- which is currently classified as a "Disturbance"

P.H. Dexippus said:

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Someone's weather man was crying because of this storm?
https://texags.com/forums/34/topics/3492184

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98Ag99Grad said:

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Catching a break on this one. Models showing strong storm making landfall Thursdayish.

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Did you come to this stunning conclusion yourself or are you just parroting what the weather weenies said all weekend?

Red Pear Realty said:

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I Am A Critic said:

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weather weenies

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I think we have our thread title for next year, folks. It works for everyone regardless of if you think we need more rain or think we don't.

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I pass the torch to one of you heathens as I don't live in Houston anymore. I'll keep tangential interest until I've sold my old home, although I still have family there.

Weird to see a church marquee attached to an exxon station. Which branch of baptist is this?

Tin foil hat time: Hurricane John in the Pacific is potentially poised to cross southern Mexico and end up in the gulf of Mexico*. Isn't that essentially how TS Allison happened? A pacific hurricane ended up in the gulf?


*projections of this seem to have it basically following the current storm in the gulf towards Florida.

histag10 said:

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Tin foil hat time: Hurricane John in the Pacific is potentially poised to cross southern Mexico and end up in the gulf of Mexico*. Isn't that essentially how TS Allison happened? A pacific hurricane ended up in the gulf?


*projections of this seem to have it basically following the current storm in the gulf towards Florida.

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The GFS had been showing something like that, but the latest iteration (12z) shows it kind of dissipating over land. The Euro 00z shows it weakening over land and then emerging back into the Pacific and heading West.