Only thing I can think he might mean is that 90mph might as well be 130mph because all trees and powerlines will fall at 90, but I don't think that has shown the be the case in the past hurricane here.

txags92 said:

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Bassmaster said:

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Breggy Popup said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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Breggy Popup said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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Pretty fair to say that Entergy significantly outperformed CenterPoint.

NOLA has outages, but not near what Houston had during Beryl.

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Entergy had their Centerpoint moment during Hurricane Laura.

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Hurricane Laura came ashore as a high Cat 4. That's a little different...

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Wind is wind. Trees and power poles don't care if it's 90mph or 130mph.

Also Laura landed in Louisiana yet east Texas all the way into the Woodlands got knocked out. Entergy went through the same **** CP is now and stepped up their game since.

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You're going to have to spell this one out for me. Wind speed doesn't matter?

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Yeah, math on that one doesn't work at all. Wind force increases with the square of velocity IIRC.

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Wish I had the time to dig out my old Design I notes and test. Dr. Hogan specifically put a problem on a test about how much force wind on a street sign would inflict at the base of the pole.

The force is equal to the pressure x area, but that is a static force, and I don't remember how to convert wind speed to pressure. Impact force, however, does increase with the square of the velocity.

Thank you for coming to my nerd talk.

CDUB98 said:

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txags92 said:

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Bassmaster said:

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Breggy Popup said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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Breggy Popup said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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Pretty fair to say that Entergy significantly outperformed CenterPoint.

NOLA has outages, but not near what Houston had during Beryl.

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Entergy had their Centerpoint moment during Hurricane Laura.

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Hurricane Laura came ashore as a high Cat 4. That's a little different...

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Wind is wind. Trees and power poles don't care if it's 90mph or 130mph.

Also Laura landed in Louisiana yet east Texas all the way into the Woodlands got knocked out. Entergy went through the same **** CP is now and stepped up their game since.

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You're going to have to spell this one out for me. Wind speed doesn't matter?

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Yeah, math on that one doesn't work at all. Wind force increases with the square of velocity IIRC.

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Wish I had the time to dig out my old Design I notes and test. Dr. Hogan specifically put a problem on a test about how much force wind on a street sign would inflict at the base of the pole.

The force is equal to the pressure x area, but that is a static force, and I don't remember how to convert wind speed to pressure. Impact force, however, does increase with the square of the velocity.

Thank you for coming to my nerd talk.

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I think you factor in the density of the air and the cross sectional area exposed to the wind, plus friction for surfaces not perpendicular to the wind. Most of what I know comes from barely paying attention in Statics and Dynamics and looking at how power requirements increase with speed for cycling. Going 20 mph takes 4x as much power as going 10 mph if you keep everything else the same.

Texaggie7nine said:

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Only thing I can think he might mean is that 90mph might as well be 130mph because all trees and powerlines will fall at 90, but I don't think that has shown the be the case in the past hurricane here.

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CenterPoint is explicitly said the new power poles they are putting in are rated for 132 mph winds.

ChemAg15 said:

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And the trees they let grow over the power lines are rated for 150

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That part is certainly true!

However, the claim I was responding to was "Trees and power poles don't care if it's 90mph or 130mph."

And in this case, if the poles are rated for 132, you wouldn't expect any issues (aside from trees falling on them) during a cat 1 or even 2.

AgLiving06 said:

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ChemAg15 said:

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And the trees they let grow over the power lines are rated for 150

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That part is certainly true!

However, the claim I was responding to was "Trees and power poles don't care if it's 90mph or 130mph."

And in this case, if the poles are rated for 132, you wouldn't expect any issues (aside from trees falling on them) during a cat 1 or even 2.

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Generally right, but gusts can take things out.

And to the talk about how wind speed relates to pressure - pressure = 0.00256*Kz*Kzt*Kd*Ke*V^2, then pressure is multiplied by gust factor and shape factor.

Models starting to agree a low pressure will form in the Caribbean and move into the GOM towards the middle of next week. Looking like a problem for Florida, but something to keep an eye on.

Big update from the CPC and NOAA for tropical chances next week. Never seen it that high on this map. Many models agree. Watching lower Caribbean close. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/xH8QTgzVhi

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) September 17, 2024

Cromagnum said:

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The 12Z GFS loop on that one looks a lot like Hurricane Wilma from 2005. Forms as a low to the east of the Honduran Bay Islands, moves north over Cozumel, does a loop in the southern Gulf, then heads NE to Florida. Wilma formed in the same area, underwent at the time the fastest Cat to Cat 5 rapid intensification in Atlantic history, and did its loop over the Yucatan Channel between Cozumel and Cancun, then blasted the west coast of Florida.

At least right now, the GFS is not showing it being nearly as strong as Wilma, but the path looks really similar. It has been all over the place on the last few runs as to where it takes that storm (Florida to eastern Louisiana and back in the last 24 hours). Once it settles down, it will be one to keep an eye on, as some of the runs show it reaching Cat 4 over the northern GOM. The Euro has been less enthusiastic (as usual) about the intensity.

txags92 said:

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Cromagnum said:

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The 12Z GFS loop on that one looks a lot like Hurricane Wilma from 2004. Forms as a low to the east of the Honduran Bay Islands, moves north over Cozumel, does a loop in the southern Gulf, then heads NE to Florida. Wilma formed in the same area, underwent at the time the fastest Cat to Cat 5 rapid intensification in Atlantic history, and did its loop over the Yucatan Channel between Cozumel and Cancun, then blasted the west coast of Florida.

At least right now, the GFS is not showing it being nearly as strong as Wilma, but the path looks really similar. It has been all over the place on the last few runs as to where it takes that storm (Florida to eastern Louisiana and back in the last 24 hours). Once it settles down, it will be one to keep an eye on, as some of the runs show it reaching Cat 4 over the northern GOM. The Euro has been less enthusiastic (as usual) about the intensity.

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Wilma was in 2005

maroon barchetta said:

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txags92 said:

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Cromagnum said:

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The 12Z GFS loop on that one looks a lot like Hurricane Wilma from 2004. Forms as a low to the east of the Honduran Bay Islands, moves north over Cozumel, does a loop in the southern Gulf, then heads NE to Florida. Wilma formed in the same area, underwent at the time the fastest Cat to Cat 5 rapid intensification in Atlantic history, and did its loop over the Yucatan Channel between Cozumel and Cancun, then blasted the west coast of Florida.

At least right now, the GFS is not showing it being nearly as strong as Wilma, but the path looks really similar. It has been all over the place on the last few runs as to where it takes that storm (Florida to eastern Louisiana and back in the last 24 hours). Once it settles down, it will be one to keep an eye on, as some of the runs show it reaching Cat 4 over the northern GOM. The Euro has been less enthusiastic (as usual) about the intensity.

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Wilma was in 2005

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Fair enough. I always get the years mixed up because Ivan hit Grand Cayman in 2004 on the day we were supposed to fly in on our way to Little Cayman, while Wilma hit Cozumel in 2005 2 days after we got there.

Even if this storm does form in the gulf, isn't there supposed to be a front that will push the storm toward Florida?

ChemAg15 said:

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Even if this storm does form in the gulf, isn't there supposed to be a front that will push the storm toward Florida?

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Looks that way. Never know that fare out but LA to FL panhandle more probable.

possibly. still way too early to know how strong or if one will even come here. as usual, wait and see.

terradactylexpress said:

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Look at me. I'm so rich and/or stupid that I plan hurricane season beach vacations every year

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Far from rich. I think I already explained it before, but the late summer and fall is one of the best times of the year for diving the Caribbean if you like calm seas, warm water, and light winds. Unless there is a hurricane around, it is great diving. It is also low season in the Caribbean for the resorts. So they offer big discounts and many of them even shut down for a month or two depending on where they are. You can get great conditions for diving, cheaper prices, and less crowded destinations. You just have to be willing to keep an eye on the tropics and be flexible enough to change your trip if there is a storm coming.

In the case of Ivan in 2004, we just changed our dates to go about a month later and the resort and airlines charged no change fees. In the case of Wilma in 2005, it was barely a Cat 1 when we made the decision to go to the airport and go ahead with the trip. According to the NHC, the "models were in unusually good agreement for this far out" about the track over western Cuba, putting Cozumel well away on the dry/weak side of a weak storm. While we were getting up very early and heading for the airport and flying down to Coz, Wilma underwent explosive intensification from a Cat 1 to 5 in about 12 hours. When we arrived and checked in, then checked the NHC again, the models had all changed and it was coming right at us. The Continental flight we went down on was the last flight of theirs off the island and we were stuck.

Since getting stuck in that storm, we both won't even consider flying into a location near the forecast path of a storm, no matter what the models say about where it is going. But we have taken over a dozen trips to the Caribbean since then, only one not during hurricane season. We have had to change plans to move the trip by a week or two 3 times since then due to approaching storms, but have never had to pay a change fee and never needed trip insurance.

Just as an FYI for those buying trip insurance, one of the reasons we did go down for the trip ahead of Wilma was that we had bought trip insurance for that trip. When we called them to see what their coverage would be if we changed the trip, they said if the airlines were flying and the hotel was open when we were supposed to go, they would cover nothing. Since it was forecast to be a weak storm over Cuba and nothing was shutting down on Coz. Since that time, we have figured out that most of the resorts and hotels don't want to have to deal with guests being present with a storm coming, so they are more than happy to rearrange your dates ahead of a storm that is approaching. Most of the airlines now also do no change fees/fare if there is a named storm approaching a location. So if you are dealing with reasonable/reputable resorts and airlines, trip insurance may have very little to offer you for what you spend.

ChemAg15 said:

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Even if this storm does form in the gulf, isn't there supposed to be a front that will push the storm toward Florida?

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Some of the models are developing it slower and keeping it farther south crossing the yucatan into the Bay of Campeche before developing. In those cases, the storm may be too far south for the front to pick it up fully and take it to Florida. Also, models this time of year almost always over-forecast the strength of the first few fronts to reach the gulf. So as somebody else said, LA to Florida is likely if it develops where the NHC forecast shows, but there is an outside chance it could make it further west, albeit probably weaker if it does so.

GoAgs11 said:

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7 day out forecast is nothing but fear porn. hth

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Fear boner intensifies.

Does look like they keep Texas out of the cross hairs post potential development.

https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelrlowry/p/following-development-trends-for?utm_source=direct&r=krcyf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

terradactylexpress said:

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Look at me. I'm so rich and/or stupid that I plan hurricane season beach vacations every year

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Guilty as charged. There's usually an incredible drop off in mexico resort prices starting the last week of august because of school being back in and hurricane season.

I did arrive to one resort 3-4 days after a tropical storm hit. Place was immaculate by then.

I didnt know planning a vacation during a cetain 5 month span is a flex. Should we all just sit at home and quiver in fear?

You are not the only one that does not see it as a flex.

Charlie Murphy said:

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I didnt know planning a vacation during a cetain 5 month span is a flex. Should we all just sit at home and quiver in fear?

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Yeah, I take a lot of crap for it from some of my family who worry irrationally about such things, but it really isn't that big of a deal.