Has anybody seen this John Travolta direct to video masterpiece that's been on cable the last week?



The timing of this thing showing up on the cable rotation was perfect for me to fully appreciate the selfless sacrifices that electric linemen make for others. Makes you really re-think shooting at them. Well, except for that one character who shoots Travolta's pregnant niece in the stomach - he probably deserves it.

I saw it. It's pretty bad. He didn't learn how to do a Texan or southern accent when he was in Urban Cowboy, that is certain.

TROPICS: An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical… pic.twitter.com/0nsxYJzCNw

— James Spann (@spann) July 27, 2024

Good Sunday morning! As we head through the rest of the week, we'll be watching for the potential for a tropical depression to form near the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or southwestern Atlantic.

Continue to monitor https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb for the latest info on this… pic.twitter.com/DGRwAu6Wro

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 28, 2024

One concern that I have is that they still haven't been able to drain Barker and Addicks since the hurricane 3 weeks ago. They are still pretty full because of all the rain we have had. If we get hit with another heavy rain storm, it is going to cause some pretty bad damage in west Houston again.

I ran by the spillway for Addicks last Wednesday and it was pretty open. Smelled like absolute hot garbage.

Based on the recent weather forecast they have 7-10 days to open it up and drain a lot of it

They have been releasing but haven't really gotten anywhere.

Anytime it rains or forecasted to rain downstream of the reservoirs, they reduce the outflow or completely shut the gates to avoid going outside the banks of the bayous (unless they are in danger of overtopping the levees, Harvey)

HtownAg92 said:

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Does it flow to Kingwood via Lake Conroe or is there a central collection point that can bypass the lake? Seems like the Corps of Engineers can make sure that there is a direct route for flood waters to take from anywhere in the city to Kingwood.

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Barker and Addicks go to downtown and the ship channel. None of that water goes anywhere near Kingwood.

Nope, just seen enough dumb questions about Kingwood flooding that I just assumed you had moved there recently from Friendswood or something.

A twitter weather guy I follow shows a lot of uncertainty in this disturbance. Most models show it east of Florida but the GFS shows west of Florida and then….?

He posted several models and scenarios and the statement below is one possibility.

0z EURO ENSEMBLES: TS likely in the Bahamas and then a then a turn out to the NE. OBX and Canada need to watch.

6z GFS: Follows the 0z GFS run and tracks west to TX as a H1.

6z ICON: TD off the E. Coast of FL late Sat. night.

0z and 6z GFS put in right in Beaumont. GFS is the least reliable model so wouldn't get to worked up. If the others start to follow up, then it's worth watching.

The weather channel just now at 11 AM talked about the storm track will have uncertainty until it forms which will more than likely be south southeast of the Bahamas and if it's weaker, there's a chance it could migrate west into the Gulf of Mexico and then all bets are on.
At least that's how I'm interpreting .

What gives me concern is there is a guy on Twitter and or X who is really good about predicting where the storms could go and he was dead on with bBeryl almost 2 weeks before it landed and for this disturbance, he's got it coming right at the Texas Louisiana border … he goes by DaBuh.

They are affiliated with my church and it's been 2 sessions. I also don't want to upset any one on here...I just use TexAgs as a way to get more information and ideas, so I don't mean to do any thing other than try to gain opinion and insight and some knowledge.

As far as prep... I don't have a generator so nothing to do there. Trees are all over the place in The Woodlands so that is as done as I can make it after clearing and trimming up for 22 years here.

I have insurance...etc.....so if any damage were to occur, covered there.

So....I just have about all I need ready..just gather up some important documents and head out.

My main issue with whatever this is S/SE of the Leeward Islands right now is a model/guy that is favoring/taking the small percentage chance that the storm will do something different than everything you are seeing on tv and social media for that matter.

I don't understand weather enough to be able to figure out much of this stuff...just enough to get myself confused really.

What I am curious about with this disturbance....all of the modeling shows likelihood into or east of Florida, except one model and that is the GFS....and one guy in particular that I have a disdain for or social media, but he is usually pretty spot on. I don't understand how he can be so certain so far in advance. And before any one says he is a hack...he has had numerous weather forcaster's state that he knows what he is doing with the information he puts out there.

FWIW, the GFS has been notoriously bad lately (past few years). NHC keeps following the trend of keeping this to Florida or east in the Atlantic. Don't work yourself up over a single model run showing you what you're worried about

I feel like this is a good time to post this, and this is just a high temp prediction.

How accurate is the weather forecast in your town?@niko_tinius and I learned that @NWS just began doing gridded assessments of forecast accuracy. We got the data and mapped of how many days into the future they get within 3°F of the observed high temp.https://t.co/rpAloq4TLH pic.twitter.com/0HVcSNR5wx

— Harry Stevens (@Harry_Stevens) July 2, 2024

PJYoung said:

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CAR96 said:

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I don't understand how he can be so certain so far in advance. And before any one says he is a hack...he has had numerous weather forecaster's state that he knows what he is doing with the information he puts out there.

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Any legit source wouldn't be confident about a tropical forecast that far out.

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What if he's a psychic?

NHC up to 60% on a low forming in the next 7 days. GFS is still all over the place. 18Z has a storm going into Louisiana next Friday.