BayAg_14 said:
Beryl is hurting. It will struggle to get back to a hurricane. Big rain maker.
10pm update from NHC
Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of
southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially
on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected
to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models
show the moisture increasing near the core. In fact, the SHIPS
model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt)
just prior to Beryl reaching the coast. These conditions combined
with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable
strengthening just prior to landfall. In fact, the hurricane
regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual
strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant
intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on
the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid
intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it
is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h
predictions.
It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.
