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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl's convective organization has increased since the last
advisory, with a ragged band forming in the western semicircle.
However, this band is best organized around what appears to be a
mid-level center to the north or northeast of the low-level center.
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the maximum winds were near 50
kt and the central pressure was in the 997-999 mb range, and since
that time various objective intensity estimates have shown little
change. Thus, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The next
aircraft missions into the cyclone should arrive around 2300-0000Z.
Beryl is still being affected by shear and dry air entrainment,
which helped produce a large arc cloud that was visible for most of
the day to the south and southwest of the convection.

The initial motion is now 310/11 kt. Water vapor imagery
continues to show a developing mid-latitude trough over the central
United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over
Texas. Beryl should move northwestward for the next 24 h or so,
then gradually turn north and move into the break. This motion
should lead to the cyclone making landfall on the Texas coast
between 36-48 h. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently
expected after 60-72 h. There has been a little bit of a northward
shift in the guidance and track, due mainly to a more northward
initial position. While this has produced only a small change in
the forecast landfall location, the landfall time is now a few
hours earlier than in the previous advisory. It should be noted
that some erratic motion could occur tonight due to possible center
reformations.

While Beryl remains in an area of southerly vertical shear and mid-
to upper-level dry air, the convection has been persistent during
the past several hours. The shear is forecast to decrease by
Sunday morning, which should allow Beryl to re-intensity as
shown by all of the guidance. The intensity forecast calls for
Beryl to regain hurricane status Sunday or Sunday night, and to
reach an intensity of around 75-kt near the time of the Texas
landfall. This intensity is based on the regional hurricane models,
which have landfall intensities ranging from 65-85 kt. After
landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to
decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.

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jbanda said:

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It's pounding rain here in the Richmond/Katy area.

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Cibalo said:

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What is considered "major winds" because Houston will have a strong wind advisory for 30mph winds.

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Ag_07 said:

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Based on how things have gone lately a strong fart knocks power out so I expect my generator to be humming along at some point.

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jbanda said:

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Also, looks like a bunch of T-45's from Kingsville are booking it to California.

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