looks pretty good
*****2024 Hurricane Season*****
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Last: 15 days ago by tk for tu juan
Texans have their priorities straight…
Friends preparing for Tropical Storm Beryl in Texas: pic.twitter.com/27ufHASDdk
— Charlie (@Acceleros) July 6, 2024
We are flying out of IAH tomorrow morning so I have been monitoring flights, delays, etc. I don't think inbound flights to IAH have much to worry about unless the center gets right over the airport.
Not sure how to post a picture link, but this is a screenshot from the other day right after Beryl made landfall in the Yucatan … commercial flights were still landing in Cancun amongst the rain bands.
https://imgur.com/a/zd5jWwr
Not sure how to post a picture link, but this is a screenshot from the other day right after Beryl made landfall in the Yucatan … commercial flights were still landing in Cancun amongst the rain bands.
https://imgur.com/a/zd5jWwr
The @53rdWRS getting knocked around this morning from Beryl's organizing thunderstorms. Interesting remarks here from the last pass about 45 minutes ago. Despite no significant pressure falls since the last vortex data message, "WINDS CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED." pic.twitter.com/UfVCc6a5UX
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) July 6, 2024
OK calling my shot.
I think the eye landfall will be Monday morning around Port Aransas as a weak Cat 3. Around 960 MB. I think the 4pm update will probably move up the timeline for this to get to hurricane status. Maybe move it up 6 hours to tomorrow morning.
I think the eye landfall will be Monday morning around Port Aransas as a weak Cat 3. Around 960 MB. I think the 4pm update will probably move up the timeline for this to get to hurricane status. Maybe move it up 6 hours to tomorrow morning.
Just checked and they have not lowered Lake Conroe or Houston. Lake Conroe shows 96% full and Lake Houston 99% full. Looks like a good rain is going to cause Kingwood lots of problems. But what the hell those folks have plenty of money for repairs.
Would have to start rapid intensification soon to get to Cat 3 at this point. If it's 990+ mbar right now, it would need to get down below 960 as you said but it's running out of runway.
Was living in Florida in 2004. I remember Charlie went from a category two to category four in three hours. It was a wild summer, I think Florida got hit by four hurricanes that season.
Where the hell is Matt Lanza and the Eye wall with his constant updates his site has disappointed me. I thought he was the expert when it came to all things hurricanes and storms. I guess he did not go to Mens-T clinic today for his shot of testosterone.
buddybee said:
Where the hell is Matt Lanza and the Eye wall with his constant updates his site has disappointed me. I thought he was the expert when it came to all things hurricanes and storms. I guess he did not go to Mens-T clinic today for his shot of testosterone.
Model watchers will be keen to know that the ECMWF is having some dissemination issues, so it will be late today.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 6, 2024
Is this tracking further west than we thought it would?
Herzog's 12:30 update said it's just to the right of the eastern edge of the cone.
Looking like matagorda area landfall. Austin county should be a beryl of fun on Monday.
This morning it was because it was so weak (due to dry air and wind shear), but it's going to go a bit more east if it increases intensity sooner rather than later. That's my unprofessional opinion.scd88 said:
Is this tracking further west than we thought it would?
Anti-taxxer said:
Herzog's 12:30 update said it's just to the right of the eastern edge of the cone.
I think you're seeing the mid and upper circulation off to the N and W and the lower level circulation is disconnected off to the SE. That's the one they track.
You can just start to see the lower level circulation on the bottom right in the last few frames of this:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=ir
Looks like it's pulling in dry air around into the center which will keep it from organizing anytime soon.
Good for where ever it ends up going.
You can just start to see the lower level circulation on the bottom right in the last few frames of this:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=ir
Looks like it's pulling in dry air around into the center which will keep it from organizing anytime soon.
Good for where ever it ends up going.
I was hopeful that the dry air and disorganization this morning would hold on for longer, but it looks like things are starting to come together again. Imo, peak intensity will probably end up closer to high cat2 / low cat 3 by landfall unless there's another round of dry air or shear impact before the environment becomes more favorable.
Thanks. Interesting radar.
buddybee said:
Just checked and they have not lowered Lake Conroe or Houston. Lake Conroe shows 96% full and Lake Houston 99% full. Looks like a good rain is going to cause Kingwood lots of problems. But what the hell those folks have plenty of money for repairs.
Lake Houston may be above 100%. I was just in my backyard commenting how it is higher than usual. Odd for a storm coming through.
The cone is a guess as to where it will go. The widest part of the cone is where it could potentially make landfall, and the smallest part is where the storm currently is.
I don't fully understand all the technicalities, but the stronger and more organized this storm is, the more northeast it is pulled.
At 12:30, Travis Herzog reported it's just to the right (east) of the eastern edge of the cone - meaning it's closer to Galveston.
I don't fully understand all the technicalities, but the stronger and more organized this storm is, the more northeast it is pulled.
At 12:30, Travis Herzog reported it's just to the right (east) of the eastern edge of the cone - meaning it's closer to Galveston.
OK. I get the cone. I was having trouble wrapping my head around Herzog hedging this is on the right side of the cone towards Galveston. I don't see others with that same thought.
Thanks.
Thanks.
I was using Galveston as a point of reference. As in "Galveston is to the east of Matagorda". I should have clarified that.
OK gotcha. Apologies for misunderstanding you.
And I'll add that sometimes when a storm is organizing like this the center will 'jump' when the mid and upper rotation becomes so strong that it creates a new low level circulation under it.
If that happened here then the center would jump quite a ways NW and the models would change the forecast track fairly dramatically. I don't think anybody anticipates that happening with Beryl.
If that happened here then the center would jump quite a ways NW and the models would change the forecast track fairly dramatically. I don't think anybody anticipates that happening with Beryl.
Saw this tweet and thought of your postBowSowy said:
Oh look, the two fear porn guys show up again. A full on dam failure would be quite surprising and unexpected. I have a hard time imagining that the engineers who are responsible for the dam repair designed it for anything less than full capacity times a safety factor at any stage during construction.
⚠️NOT GOOD! Texas: Crews were out at Lake Livingston Dam today making repairs. Last week, the Trinity River Authority issued a "potential failure watch" due to damage spotted the day the derecho hit. They're trying to make repairs before Beryl gets here." pic.twitter.com/H8RZnoHQHD
— Tina Olhava (@tshow78) July 6, 2024
Aww ****
We're ****ed
Yep, everyone write your SSN on your arms plz. Thx.
Seersucker Ag 2011 said:
Aww ****
Frankie would be a better county judge than Dora.
True or False
evestor1 said:buddybee said:
Just checked and they have not lowered Lake Conroe or Houston. Lake Conroe shows 96% full and Lake Houston 99% full. Looks like a good rain is going to cause Kingwood lots of problems. But what the hell those folks have plenty of money for repairs.
Lake Houston may be above 100%. I was just in my backyard commenting how it is higher than usual. Odd for a storm coming through.
At what point does a release start running into storm surge and making for more flooding downstream of the dam?
This weather today unrelated to Beryl or are we getting bands already?
I'm glad he used 'nothingburger' which is definitely on every Houston weather thread bingo card.
Along with "Harvey", a penile inches joke followed by "That's what she said", and "should I move/cancel my flight".
Along with "Harvey", a penile inches joke followed by "That's what she said", and "should I move/cancel my flight".
PJYoung said:Saw this tweet and thought of your postBowSowy said:
Oh look, the two fear porn guys show up again. A full on dam failure would be quite surprising and unexpected. I have a hard time imagining that the engineers who are responsible for the dam repair designed it for anything less than full capacity times a safety factor at any stage during construction.⚠️NOT GOOD! Texas: Crews were out at Lake Livingston Dam today making repairs. Last week, the Trinity River Authority issued a "potential failure watch" due to damage spotted the day the derecho hit. They're trying to make repairs before Beryl gets here." pic.twitter.com/H8RZnoHQHD
— Tina Olhava (@tshow78) July 6, 2024
What exactly are they repairing. All that work seems to be below the spillway/dam. A failure there seems far less problematic than a failure of the spillway/main dam.
All you need to know about any developing weather-related news is that it's "NOT GOOD!"
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