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Tex117
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9:32a, 7/6/24
AG
Unless something radically changes, and it can, this will be a nothing burger for the most part.

(Basically a repost, but always a good reminder not to lose your mind over a cat 1or 2… all things considered, these just aren't massively damaging. (Slow moving rain events notwithstanding)

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PJYoung
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In reply to TroyMc • 9:33a, 7/6/24
AG
TroyMc said:
I hope it actually holds that track. Would get some rain to the hill country. But i think it ends up further east and misses Austin and San Antonio for the most part if not entirely.
The bulk of the rain will probably be on the NE side of the center.
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Delpierro
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 9:34a, 7/6/24
AG
Yes, the flight is still on schedule. I attempted to switch to an earlier flight, but KLM would have charged more than the original ticket price, and they couldn't provide any information about the likelihood of the flight remaining on schedule given the current circumstances.

Hopefully, the worst case scenario would be a diversion to Dallas. Thanks!
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PJYoung
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In reply to TroyMc • 9:34a, 7/6/24
AG
TroyMc said:
Hmm that actually went back west.
Not an official forecast but yeah i think the NHC track they release here in a few minutes will probably move a bit SW.
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Sea Speed
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9:39a, 7/6/24
AG
MIL changed her flight to Friday. Couple extra days of free babysitting.
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Tex117 • 9:41a, 7/6/24
AG
Tex117 said:
Unless something radically changes, and it can, this will be a nothing burger for the most part.

(Basically a repost, but always a good reminder not to lose your mind over a cat 1or 2… all things considered, these just aren't massively damaging. (Slow moving rain events notwithstanding)



Not saying this one is Harvey 2.0, but Harvey did go from a TS to a Cat 4 in 24 hours...

Too much time left over bath water to just write this one off.
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ChemAg15
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9:45a, 7/6/24
AG
Recon plane just found the pressure has dropped to 993 mb. Stronger than forecasted. This storm is reorganized and is strengthening.
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Cromagnum • 9:48a, 7/6/24
AG
Cromagnum said:
sts7049 said:
Cromagnum said:
People gonna be be surprised this evening if they haven't been paying any attention after hearing Mexico a few days ago.

if you are that surprised, you're too stupid to understand what uncertainty means


There are an alarmingly large number of dumb people in Houston.


Saw a Jeff Lindner post on his current takes on the forecast, and every other comment is "how will Katy be affected? What about Kingwood? What about Spring?"

These people are why we make memes.
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Tex117
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In reply to Cromagnum • 9:48a, 7/6/24
AG
Cromagnum said:
Tex117 said:
Unless something radically changes, and it can, this will be a nothing burger for the most part.

(Basically a repost, but always a good reminder not to lose your mind over a cat 1or 2… all things considered, these just aren't massively damaging. (Slow moving rain events notwithstanding)



Not saying this one is Harvey 2.0, but Harvey did go from a TS to a Cat 4 in 24 hours...

Too much time left over bath water to just write this one off.
You aren't wrong, but just playing percentages, this is way more likely to be a non-event for most rather than another Harvey.

I'd advise the usual, gas, water, food that doesn't have to be refrigerated, and check the weather every few hours to see if anything substantially changes. (Which you are right… 24 hours over bath water… and the fact they really are missing this one makes this one to check the weather more often than one normally would).
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Furlock Bones
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In reply to TroyMc • 9:53a, 7/6/24
AG
This thing just keeps turning north. I don't think central texas is gonna get *****
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Tex117 • 9:55a, 7/6/24
AG
It's not suppose to stall like Harvey for sure, but my bet is on a stout Cat 2 around Port O'Connor. If it's gets stronger faster, fully expect it to come in more east.
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TRM
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9:57a, 7/6/24
AG
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terradactylexpress
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In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:58a, 7/6/24
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terradactylexpress
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In reply to Cromagnum • 9:59a, 7/6/24
Harvey the NHC had predicted the storm to stall/ho backwards for a while
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scd88
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In reply to PJYoung • 10:03a, 7/6/24
AG
PJYoung said:


7a update


This is the ideal path. Areas that need rain get it.
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Tex117
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In reply to Cromagnum • 10:07a, 7/6/24
AG
Cromagnum said:
It's not suppose to stall like Harvey for sure, but my bet is on a stout Cat 2 around Port O'Connor. If it's gets stronger faster, fully expect it to come in more east.

That stall was bonkers…. But just a normal ol Cat 2 (unless in flood area or on coast), just isn't something to freak out over (not saying you are freakin out, just a reminder to perhaps some of our new gulf coast residents)
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Fitch
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10:09a, 7/6/24
AG
Seeing a couple of mets on social media wondering aloud if it's going to reorganize faster than expected and land as a cat 2/3. Seems like it got up and going once back in the gulf.
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CFTXAG10
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In reply to TRM • 10:09a, 7/6/24
AG
TRM said:


Sounds like Brennan is honing in on Matagorda Bay but leaving open a slight West or East shift to CC Bay or Galveston
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Tex117 • 10:10a, 7/6/24
AG
Tex117 said:
Cromagnum said:
It's not suppose to stall like Harvey for sure, but my bet is on a stout Cat 2 around Port O'Connor. If it's gets stronger faster, fully expect it to come in more east.

That stall was bonkers…. But just a normal ol Cat 2 (unless in flood area or on coast), just isn't something to freak out over (not saying you are freakin out, just a reminder to perhaps some of our new gulf coast residents)


Yeah, normally cat 2 and under just ride it out. You will have tree limbs and (if your house is like mine) shingles to pick up and a new roof needed to be installed. Not a catastrophe but a pain in the ass.
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Ag12thman
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10:14a, 7/6/24
AG
Last update adjusted it a tiny bit more southeast, but that may change with the news that it's already showing some signs of strengthening.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Ag12thman • 10:19a, 7/6/24
AG
Ag12thman said:
Last update adjusted it a tiny bit more southeast, but that may change with the news that it's already showing some signs of strengthening.
Yeah you would think a stronger than expected storm would move N of the forecast.
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PJYoung
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10:24a, 7/6/24
AG
This is a good view of the visible satellite this morning. You can tell the surface center isn't located under the mid-center yet. If/when that happens we will probably see some rapid intensification. I know there's dry air trying to wrap around as well from the SW. Pretty sure they think it will finally get stacked in the early hours of Sunday. The dry air still might screw that up.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02L&product=vis_swir

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Martin Q. Blank
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10:26a, 7/6/24
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10:31a, 7/6/24
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8-kHd2JLQi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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Fitch
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10:43a, 7/6/24
AG
Latest from NOAA and the NHC
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redag06
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In reply to Tex117 • 10:47a, 7/6/24
Cat 2 still causes power outages. Remember the storm in may was cat 2 winds
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Tex117
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In reply to redag06 • 10:48a, 7/6/24
AG
redag06 said:
Cat 2 still causes power outages. Remember the storm in may was cat 2 winds

Right, but unless you are on the coast, by the time it hits houston proper, it won't be as potent.

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Tex117
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In reply to Cromagnum • 10:50a, 7/6/24
AG
Cromagnum said:
Tex117 said:
Cromagnum said:
It's not suppose to stall like Harvey for sure, but my bet is on a stout Cat 2 around Port O'Connor. If it's gets stronger faster, fully expect it to come in more east.

That stall was bonkers…. But just a normal ol Cat 2 (unless in flood area or on coast), just isn't something to freak out over (not saying you are freakin out, just a reminder to perhaps some of our new gulf coast residents)


Yeah, normally cat 2 and under just ride it out. You will have tree limbs and (if your house is like mine) shingles to pick up and a new roof needed to be installed. Not a catastrophe but a pain in the ass.

Yup. Pretty much exactly this.
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Cromagnum
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10:56a, 7/6/24
AG
Surfside Beach already calling their shot.

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Ramrod
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In reply to Fitch • 11:04a, 7/6/24
AG
Fitch said:
Latest from NOAA and the NHC

Hold that forecast and shift it to the west, and that would be a solid rain for central Texas.
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William Foster
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In reply to Ramrod • 11:07a, 7/6/24
Ramrod said:
Fitch said:
Latest from NOAA and the NHC

Hold that forecast and shift it to the west, and that would be a solid rain for central Texas.


I hope the Uvalde area can get it somehow. Last I heard everything has been going around them for months and the frio is pretty much dry outside of the swimming holes.
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Sea Speed
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11:09a, 7/6/24
AG
Company is sending all our workboats east but seeing as I am local they aren't putting me on one thank goodness.
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Fitch
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In reply to Ramrod • 11:09a, 7/6/24
AG
Yup. Align that orange swath with I-35 and it'd be perfect.
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PJYoung
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11:13a, 7/6/24
AG
Levi seems pretty bullish on earlier than expected strengthening.

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11:13a, 7/6/24
AG

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