Someone on here mentioned a Carla type storm. Goes in at Lavaca bay with bands pushing up into Galveston bay. I could see that.
*****2024 Hurricane Season*****
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Last: 12 days ago by tk for tu juan
Yeah I land at 4pm Sunday and hopefully just dodging some tstorms here and there. Just hoping we dont land too an all out panic in the city.
Cibalo said:
Scheduled to fly into Houston Sunday at 730pm. Think I make it or will they cancel the flight?
I looked into switching to an earlier flight that gets me in at 130pm but it was $450 to change .
Depends on which direction you are coming from, and what this thing does after it gets past Yucatn, but should be good. It might be bumpy coming in though.
Cibalo said:
Scheduled to fly into Houston Sunday at 730pm. Think I make it or will they cancel the flight?
I looked into switching to an earlier flight that gets me in at 130pm but it was $450 to change .
My MIL and her sister are scheduled to fly out Tuesday but I imagine their trips going to get just a touch extended. Good thing I really like them.
Cibalo said:
Scheduled to fly into Houston Sunday at 730pm. Think I make it or will they cancel the flight?
I looked into switching to an earlier flight that gets me in at 130pm but it was $450 to change .
Probably good unless it beeline it for us. Expect tropical storm winds to start Sunday night though.
As always, things can change, but this storm seems like nothing to worry about too much.
A cat 1 (or 2) is something to prepare for, but not lose one's mind over.
A cat 1 (or 2) is something to prepare for, but not lose one's mind over.
Most airlines will waive fees when there is a storm advisory issued, but you'll need to wait for them to be issued and might not be able to change it to the flight you.
texasaggie2015 said:
Yep. I really don't think we'll know anything with any amount of certainty until tomorrow morning at the earliest.
I think the track is going to get fairly locked in after it passes the Yucatan and they can get hurricane hunters in the storm to get accurate pressure and location readings.
No doubt. For now, it's start prep like you're getting hit directly (or start doing so tomorrow morning, at the very latest), if you reside anywhere between Brownsville and Matagorda.Beat40 said:texasaggie2015 said:
Yep. I really don't think we'll know anything with any amount of certainty until tomorrow morning at the earliest.
I think the track is going to get fairly locked in after it passes the Yucatan and they can get hurricane hunters in the storm to get accurate pressure and location readings.
I Am A Critic said:It doesn't help that he's also a whiny, thin-skinned Yankee liberal.cone said:
he's way way way too online
Redundant.
rancher1953 said:
What will happen to the Lake Livingston Dam (that has big problems) with a lot of water pouring into the lake will it hold. The same can be said about Lake Houston and Kingwood will they be able to avoid flooding.
Livingston dam will be fine. Ignore the hype.
If the dam fails, there is going to be a lot of problems, but they are doing everything they can to repair it currently.
Here comes the doomsayers.
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for… pic.twitter.com/Nj3g1cM1X1
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 5, 2024
not sure how you get "doomsayers" out of the post. He's right a more eastward shift towards rockport/port A, etc will be a lot more disastrous than if it lands south around Brownsville. Tons more high end properties, people, infrastructure, etc.Teddy Perkins said:
Here comes the doomsayers.NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for… pic.twitter.com/Nj3g1cM1X1
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 5, 2024
There would be more potential impact, but the model run he's posting is at cat 1 intensity at landfall. Even if you took the upside and said cat 2 specific to that model output, it's not even classified as a "major" hurricane.
Reed is entertaining but very sensationalistic. Landfall up the coast is looking like a real possibility, but that post is a little misleading for people who don't know what they're looking at.
Reed is entertaining but very sensationalistic. Landfall up the coast is looking like a real possibility, but that post is a little misleading for people who don't know what they're looking at.
Too early to be scaring everyone by saying "mega disaster" and posting a scary pic of one model run this far out. It'll get a lot of online interaction but is obvious aggrandizement.
It's gonna be a major hurricane right up the htown pooper! Errybody run fo yo lives!!
HWRF model loves to over-strengthen these storms. But their track may be on par.
Let's start a list of the popular talking heads and their biases while we wait on more info.
- Lanza - overly conservative forecasts, commentary is opposite of conservative
- Timmer - sensationalist doomer, but has more fun than anyone else. Could not care less about what you think
- Herzog - has seen this too many times before
- Joe Bastrdi - will predict the most extreme outcome and then hold it over you for years if it verifies
- Levi / Burg - could narrate the apocalypse in monotone
- NHC - rivaled only by the IRS as govt. entities that do their job efficiently
A shame Frank retired just a few weeks too early…
There is a good chance that this hurricane season is going to force me to move to rural Washington or Oregon and live as a recluse who consults.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 5, 2024
cry for help
Teddy Perkins said:
Too early to be scaring everyone by saying "mega disaster" and posting a scary pic of one model run this far out. It'll get a lot of online interaction but is obvious aggrandizement.
too early, yet you have plenty who sit around waiting until its too late to buy their generators then complain about having no power
Well bye!cone said:There is a good chance that this hurricane season is going to force me to move to rural Washington or Oregon and live as a recluse who consults.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 5, 2024
cry for help
Username checks out.
Sad to see him falling apart like this right in front of everyonecone said:There is a good chance that this hurricane season is going to force me to move to rural Washington or Oregon and live as a recluse who consults.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 5, 2024
cry for help
Are you though?
Teddy Perkins said:
Here comes the doomsayers.NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for… pic.twitter.com/Nj3g1cM1X1
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 5, 2024
The Euro model shows the same thing now...
The ICON model takes it to Freeport.
cone said:There is a good chance that this hurricane season is going to force me to move to rural Washington or Oregon and live as a recluse who consults.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 5, 2024
cry for help
Tom Cardy said:
Let's start a list of the popular talking heads and their biases while we wait on more info.
- Lanza - overly conservative forecasts, commentary is opposite of conservative ;big, whiny baby
- Timmer - sensationalist doomer, but has more fun than anyone else. Could not care less about what you think
- Herzog - has seen this too many times before
- Joe Bastrdi - will predict the most extreme outcome and then hold it over you for years if it verifies
- Levi / Burg - could narrate the apocalypse in monotone
- NHC - rivaled only by the IRS as govt. entities that do their job efficiently
Fixed it.
Whatever happened to Casey Curry? She disappeared after Harvey.
I was a mere young un living in Texas City when Carla hit. Dad worked for SWBT so he came home, took mom, my sister and I to a CO to ride the storm out.rancher1953 said:
This could be another hurricane Carla like in 1961. Almost same path.
Bear in mind, telephone COs are cinderblock walls, steel doors and generators.
After the storm was over I remember going "home", which had about 4' of water in it.
Afterwards, snakes all over the place. (Seeking high ground)
A few years ago, after Rita, I asked my mom when we were reminiscing about Carla, what did we do about clean up after Carla.
She, raised on a cotton farm on the Bernard prairie, laughed. "Weren't no FEMA then. We tore the cover off the walls to let everything dry out. Put the furniture out in the yard to dry out. That furniture that didn't went in the trash. And rebuilt"
Times a bit different now.
I'm sure the residents of rural Oregon and Washington would love a climate doomsday cry baby.cone said:There is a good chance that this hurricane season is going to force me to move to rural Washington or Oregon and live as a recluse who consults.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 5, 2024
cry for help
He will fit right in.
TX04Aggie said:
A shame Frank retired just a few weeks too early…
I figure he's warming up in the bullpen like Dr. Frank used to…
An uncle and his friend went to either Surfside or Quintana, I forget which, and went rattlesnake hunting after Carla. They went into the higher dunes and flushed them out and killed them.
My dad used to have a photo of them posing on the beach with 25 dead rattlesnakes lined up in front of them.
He said the snakes were all over the place in town (Freeport) and the mosquitoes were thicker than usual.
My dad used to have a photo of them posing on the beach with 25 dead rattlesnakes lined up in front of them.
He said the snakes were all over the place in town (Freeport) and the mosquitoes were thicker than usual.
He needs to stop tweeting (or X-posting) so much, especially in response to others' reactions.gougler08 said:Sad to see him falling apart like this right in front of everyonecone said:There is a good chance that this hurricane season is going to force me to move to rural Washington or Oregon and live as a recluse who consults.
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 5, 2024
cry for help
12z ECMWF now literally showing a 969-970mb storm in Matagorda Bay, Texas. #Beryl pic.twitter.com/xLegQMOuw0
— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) July 5, 2024
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