AustinCountyAg said:

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jetch17 said:

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Well F me - we officially pulled the plug on the trip south this morning

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how far south? We've got friends that own a house in cinnamon shores. Plan as of now is to head down tonight and shore a few things up then gtfo out tomm.

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Yeah we were booked at CS

Pretty complicated so I would wait on any rash judgements. I'm guessing we wont know until late tonight or in the early hours on Saturday.

Very tricky forecast - if the storm comes inland sooner, this may not matter (except for juicing rainfall totals). If it stays offshore and rebuilds a core while interacting favorably with the Jet, we could see some non-linear intensification.

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) July 5, 2024

Sea Speed said:

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Thanks for that. I was obviously wrong about the previous predictions. Here's to hoping yucatan weakens the hell out of it.

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It's amazing to me how accurate they were where it was going to hit in relation to Jamaica. 5-6 days out and it never deviated from that spot directly south of it.

Yep. I really don't think we'll know anything with any amount of certainty until tomorrow morning at the earliest.

Sea Speed said:

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cone said:

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People have just lost it with this storm. The same people that complain that "the media" sensationalizes everything too much are complaining, loudly, that we aren't taking it seriously enough. Mind you, none of them are meteorologists. I'm astounded. Never seen it this bad.

— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) July 3, 2024

this guy is losing it

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100% because he is reading and responding to the comments. Dudes obviously trying to appease the online masses and at some point people need to realize that will never work.

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I am going to have to stop listening to him. Not only has he been pretty inaccurate (which is not bad; almost all sources have been), but mainly he just seems very immature.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Yeah, he tends to talk down to the "commonfolk" a lot which rubs me the wrong way.

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He hates Texas and Texans.

The last 3 runs of the EPS since this tweet generally validate that the consensus track for Hurricane #Beryl is indeed shifting towards south Texas (as expected).#txwx https://t.co/zC0KmoXH88 pic.twitter.com/eq38mpcPKs

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 5, 2024

Well, next week is starting to look interesting.

The 10am NHC update has pushed it even farther north:

HURRICANE BERYL (noaa.gov)

texasaggie2015 said:

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The 10am NHC update has pushed it even farther north:

HURRICANE BERYL (noaa.gov)

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that is a very wide cone.....

Raiderjay said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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The 10am NHC update has pushed it even farther north:

HURRICANE BERYL (noaa.gov)

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that is a very wide cone.....

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yeah, so basically they have no idea yet if it's gunna be north Mexico or western LA. Gunna interesting to watch the next 36 hrs

Raiderjay said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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The 10am NHC update has pushed it even farther north:

HURRICANE BERYL (noaa.gov)

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that is a very wide cone.....

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That's because it's slowing down. As others have pointed out, the cone is the same in every forecast. It's an average range of uncertainty. The NHC doesn't draw individual cones for each storm. In other words, at day 3, the cone is x number of miles wide. That expands at day 4, and even more at day 5. When a system slows down, the day 4 and 5 positions are closer to each other, so the cone appears wider at the end.

Posting this here for anyone that's interested because the "cone" is probably the most misunderstood thing when it comes to hurricane forecasting:

Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone (noaa.gov)

I've got money saying this thing is going to dance along the coast a la Harvey.

Wtf??? Now it's back south??

Sea Speed said:

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I can't imagine being a mariner in the wooden ship days when these things would just show up and kill you with nary a warning sign outside of the age old "red sky at night, sailors delight, red sky in the morning, sailor take warning".

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Apparently that is why Spain….along with the Catholic Church dedicated monks in Cuba to start studying weather. A lot of silver and gold depended on tracking storms

My prediction is it will come in south of Corpus but north of the border. Then it will drift north and soak central Texas.

Sea Speed said:

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I can't imagine being a mariner in the wooden ship days when these things would just show up and kill you with nary a warning sign outside of the age old "red sky at night, sailors delight, red sky in the morning, sailor take warning".

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For sure. No wonder they thought there were dragons and other monsters out there. No telling how many ships went out and disappeared off the face of the earth.

BQ04 said:

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I've got money saying this thing is going to dance along the coast a la Harvey.

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Harvey didn't dance along the coast. It hit, stalled inland, went in reverse, shifted right, then hit again.

Quote:

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A stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

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They are going to keep nudging it right instead of blowing their load in one go and possibly overdoing a rightward track.

My sharpie model has landfall between Corpus and Matagorda as a category 2 with Houston catching the dirty side with a lot of rain and 40-50 mph winds.

Subject to change and I'm no expert, but with two toddlers and a house surrounded by large oak trees, that's what I'm rolling with unless more favorable reports come out by tomorrow morning.

Scheduled to fly into Houston Sunday at 730pm. Think I make it or will they cancel the flight?

I looked into switching to an earlier flight that gets me in at 130pm but it was $450 to change .

What will happen to the Lake Livingston Dam (that has big problems) with a lot of water pouring into the lake will it hold. The same can be said about Lake Houston and Kingwood will they be able to avoid flooding.

7-day rain outlook from the Major O&G weather guy, as with the cone, each of his updates has been increasing rain totals over past 2 days

You should be fine, just a little bumpy. Monday is looking like the big day.

Anti-taxxer said:

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Wtf??? Now it's back south??

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The tweet may have been a little unclear but it's saying that the cone has shifted north towards south Texas where before it was showing a landfall in Mexico.

Cibalo said:

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Scheduled to fly into Houston Sunday at 730pm. Think I make it or will they cancel the flight?

I looked into switching to an earlier flight that gets me in at 130pm but it was $450 to change .

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Maybe call and tell them why you're looking to switch and they'll understand? Also, the cone maps show Monday evening landfall for south TX as of today, gotta think if it keeps moving North that will go to Tuesday AM at least

Now my flight on Tuesday evening, probably ****ed