Sea Speed said:
How bad did Jamaica get smoked?
Just a few googles but seems like it could have been much worse
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Just a few googles but seems like it could have been much worse
gougler08 said:Sea Speed said:
How bad did Jamaica get smoked?
Just a few googles but seems like it could have been much worse
Eyewall stayed just south of Kingston
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The stuff I've seen looks like they got it pretty good. Probably no or very few deaths but a lot of property damaged and trees and power lines down for sure.
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Agasaurus Tex said:
Was just about to post that. Herzog and some of the others search for the worst outcomes for veiwership/clicks.
Yeah. I stopped following him. He's a fearmonger through and through.
962mb pressures found. Probably cat 3 again.
Stronger than expected.
#Beryl so far in line with the northern most 12z EPS tracks, which take the center towards Cozumel pic.twitter.com/5Pe8qzKDhf
— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) July 5, 2024
The last 5 runs of the HWRF valid early tomorrow morning I think do a pretty decent job of catching onto the short-term trends we've seen w/ #Beryl over the course of today that will have long-term implications for Mexico & Texas:
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 4, 2024
A slightly stronger storm that's also further… pic.twitter.com/jxaZuTvRiL
BREAKING NEWS: Aircraft recon has measured a 964 mb central pressure, down double digits with an intensifying Hurricane Beryl on approach to the northern tip of the Yucatan! This also means a stronger TC entering the western Gulf of Mexico. This data is available at… pic.twitter.com/PqzE1sRryO
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 5, 2024
Welp I wouldn't be shocked if it goes towards the northern end of the guidance envelope not to mention it making s run at a major in the gulf.
BREAKING NEWS: Aircraft recon has measured a 964 mb central pressure, down double digits with an intensifying Hurricane Beryl on approach to the northern tip of the Yucatan! This also means a stronger TC entering the western Gulf of Mexico. This data is available at… pic.twitter.com/PqzE1sRryO
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 5, 2024
Will be interesting to see how far north the cone moves tonight and tomorrow morning.
no it won't.Serotonin said:
Will be interesting to see how far north the cone moves tonight and tomorrow morning.
Officially back to Cat 3 Status
Wasn't there a lot of talk about it hitting yucatan as a tropical storm?
I hear you but...better to get the bad news at 10PM or 4AM and start making plans before the local weather hype machine kicks into gear tomorrow.Al Bula said:no it won't.Serotonin said:
Will be interesting to see how far north the cone moves tonight and tomorrow morning.
Yeah, the models overestimated the westerly shear and underestimated Beryl's strength. The HWRF seems to be the best short-term model.
Also I recall all the wx folks saying that if it is still strong after yucatan they expect a higher chance of button hooking. Don't like that.
Also does Kroger still hand out hurricane tracking maps or is that seen as a little too macabre these days?
Sea Speed said:
Also does Kroger still hand out hurricane tracking maps or is that seen as a little too macabre these days?
I don't know, but here are two places you can find printable charts that I've used in the past.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracking_charts.shtml
https://www.weather.gov/media/key/gom_track.pdf
This thing really is just gonna follow the coastline isn't it?
HWRF has it with a landfall south of Corpus.
I'm surprised you all don't have the cool metal ones you can move magnets on as you're plotting the weekly apocalypse.Sea Speed said:
Also does Kroger still hand out hurricane tracking maps or is that seen as a little too macabre these days?
AgLiving06 said:Agasaurus Tex said:
Was just about to post that. Herzog and some of the others search for the worst outcomes for veiwership/clicks.
Yeah. I stopped following him. He's a fearmonger through and through.
He's looking to be pretty spot on with this storm. K
Cromagnum said:
This thing really is just gonna follow the coastline isn't it?
Not exactly, if you turn on the "track line". Looks like the last plot has it somewhere between maybe Del Rio and San Antonio. Of course there will be plenty of rain east of that point.
[url=https://ibb.co/W0nW1SH]
[/url]Looks like I'm putting some boards up this weekend unless there's a big change on Friday.
Whoa, pretty big jump north for landfall with the newest advisory.
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Wow, cone of uncertainty now extends to Louisiana.
Hat tip to the posters here who have been pointing out reasons why we needed to be vigilant (stronger storm, more northerly track, unprecedented timing in early July).
Additionally, Levi Cowan made a great point that I haven't seen SCW make: this storm will be extremely hard to pin down because of the shape of Texas coast relative to storm direction. Even a slight change in angle could lead to hours more over the water and landfall 200 miles north of expectation.
I think SCW and Lanza will have to change their tune in update this morning.
Once again, texags knows. Leverage that into getting prepped before the masses start panicking.
Hat tip to the posters here who have been pointing out reasons why we needed to be vigilant (stronger storm, more northerly track, unprecedented timing in early July).
Additionally, Levi Cowan made a great point that I haven't seen SCW make: this storm will be extremely hard to pin down because of the shape of Texas coast relative to storm direction. Even a slight change in angle could lead to hours more over the water and landfall 200 miles north of expectation.
I think SCW and Lanza will have to change their tune in update this morning.
Once again, texags knows. Leverage that into getting prepped before the masses start panicking.
Rockport resident here. Watching very closely, so thanks so much for the input and information. Praying this thing does not come our way, but it's not looking encouraging. Lived through Harvey.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
Don't love the last few model runs. Definitely starting to trend towards that jog north.
I'm thinking it hits around corpus and jogs the coastline north. Houston and areas between hwy 35 and 45 gunna get hit the hardest with rain. South Texas gunna get passed up. Fear porn fixing to be ramped up.
we need the rain
Herzog's latest is a Matagorda landfall as a 2 on Monday morning.
06Z HWRF
Where is that?
You better get the chainsaws ready and make sure the generators are going to crank. Power lines are going to fall.
This could be another hurricane Carla like in 1961. Almost same path.
Port Lavaca or just a hair south
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