Anti-taxxer said:

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Let's pretend I don't know anything about barometric pressure. Is the hurricane stronger if the number is lower?

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Lower pressure in hurricane = higher pressure differential between where the storm center is and where it's going = stronger winds.

Increasing confidence that #beryl moves toward NE MX or extreme S TX…increasing rain chances, swells, RIP CURRENTS, and tides can be expected by late this weekend along the Texas coast. I highlighted rip currents because a lot of folks have been getting in trouble lately #houwx pic.twitter.com/kvFpIkRFjH

— Jeff Lindner (@JeffLindner1) July 4, 2024

As #Beryl races toward the Yucatan, we try to narrow the possibilities for Texas. We expect a landfall near the RGV Sunday night, with impacts for much of the S TX coast & Coastal Bend. Beryl transitions to flooding/rain threat next week in S Texas. More: https://t.co/WkDJfwgmzl pic.twitter.com/7BJpWFnPaT

— The Eyewall (@TheEyewallWx) July 4, 2024

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Modeling has been bouncing around a bit, but there's been a significant shift toward a consensus in the last 18 hours or so. This places south Texas firmly in the possible crosshairs of a landfall from Beryl.

Exactly where it makes landfall is too soon to say, but interests from about Port O'Connor south to the Rio Grande will want to monitor the forecast the next couple days. Landfall would probably come around late Sunday night, with impacts beginning early Sunday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in what Beryl will look like when it emerges from the Yucatan, but it will have marginally favorable conditions to reintensify as it tracks toward northeast Mexico or south Texas. The expectation is that a hurricane will come ashore in that region Sunday night. We still need to work on intensity for it, but the current official NHC forecast is for a 75 mph hurricane near landfall. We remind people to not focus on the specific landfall point or intensity, as impacts will spread outward from the center. Even a landfall in Mexico would cause some impacts as far north as Corpus Christi.

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https://theeyewall.com/beryl-racing-toward-the-yucatan-with-eyes-on-northeast-mexico-or-south-texas-by-sunday-night/

CAR96 said:

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As #Beryl races toward the Yucatan, we try to narrow the possibilities for Texas. We expect a landfall near the RGV Sunday night, with impacts for much of the S TX coast & Coastal Bend. Beryl transitions to flooding/rain threat next week in S Texas. More: https://t.co/WkDJfwgmzl pic.twitter.com/7BJpWFnPaT

— The Eyewall (@TheEyewallWx) July 4, 2024

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I think over the course of the next 24 hours the center of the cone will nudge north from Mexico into Texas and the overall cone will start to narrow...I'm actual surprised that hasn't happened yet.

Serotonin said:

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CAR96 said:

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As #Beryl races toward the Yucatan, we try to narrow the possibilities for Texas. We expect a landfall near the RGV Sunday night, with impacts for much of the S TX coast & Coastal Bend. Beryl transitions to flooding/rain threat next week in S Texas. More: https://t.co/WkDJfwgmzl pic.twitter.com/7BJpWFnPaT

— The Eyewall (@TheEyewallWx) July 4, 2024

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I think over the course of the next 24 hours the center of the cone will nudge north from Mexico into Texas and the overall cone will start to narrow...I'm actual surprised that hasn't happened yet.

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The cone is always wide at 5+ days. It's based on statistics and not confidence on path.

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The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2024 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, and Central North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

Radii of NHC and CPHC forecast cone circles for 2024, based on error statistics from 2019-2023:

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

That's really interesting. Seems like the right approach in case the models are off.

Serotonin said:

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Quote:

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Modeling has been bouncing around a bit, but there's been a significant shift toward a consensus in the last 18 hours or so. This places south Texas firmly in the possible crosshairs of a landfall from Beryl.

Exactly where it makes landfall is too soon to say, but interests from about Port O'Connor south to the Rio Grande will want to monitor the forecast the next couple days. Landfall would probably come around late Sunday night, with impacts beginning early Sunday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in what Beryl will look like when it emerges from the Yucatan, but it will have marginally favorable conditions to reintensify as it tracks toward northeast Mexico or south Texas. The expectation is that a hurricane will come ashore in that region Sunday night. We still need to work on intensity for it, but the current official NHC forecast is for a 75 mph hurricane near landfall. We remind people to not focus on the specific landfall point or intensity, as impacts will spread outward from the center. Even a landfall in Mexico would cause some impacts as far north as Corpus Christi.

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https://theeyewall.com/beryl-racing-toward-the-yucatan-with-eyes-on-northeast-mexico-or-south-texas-by-sunday-night/

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They are now stretching it further north to include as far north as Port O'Connor. Not good news for some of us down this way.

Eye showing up in visible imagery now, and definitely north of all the 6z EPS tracks #Beryl pic.twitter.com/55SKPqloK3

— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) July 4, 2024

Beryl continues to defy the models, this time with a long NW jog that has put it north of most ensemble tracks. Location of impact on the Yucatán tonight will obviously have large implications on eventual track/strength in the gulf. Watching closely... pic.twitter.com/Sn6SSjFc0o

— Max Olson (@MesoMax919) July 4, 2024

That's interesting.

Wow that thing is turning northwest fast. At this direction it will barely hit northern Yucatan and then be in middle of Gulf headed right for central Texas coast. Not good.

DDub74 said:

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Wow that thing is turning northwest fast. At this direction it will barely hit northern Yucatan and then be in middle of Gulf headed right for central Texas coast. Not good.

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Yeah definitely going to need that to flatten out a bit and go due west soon

Next update of the track forecast is at 4pm CT.

Won't be able to post any of my weather ops updates until tomorrow afternoon because I am on a ship with poor Internet. Headed back to Galveston tomorrow afternoon though thank goodness.

Putting the accuweather radar in motion now, it looks like the eye has moved up to the north some and is going more towards Cancun than Tulum. Hopefully it goes back south on the predicted likely path.

Sea Speed said:

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Won't be able to post any of my weather ops updates until tomorrow afternoon because I am on a ship with poor Internet. Headed back to Galveston tomorrow afternoon though thank goodness.

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No starlink? I had that on a Chevron job for 5 weeks and it was awesome.

We have it on our workboats but a different system on our ships. This is a support job so some random companies random ship from who knows where. They do not generally take care of the crews on foreign flagged ships from 3rd world places. I've been on plenty of ships where the crew gets like 1gb per week on the slowest of the slow internet. It's wild the lives some of these foreign mariners have. This ship is far from the worst but definitely not the best. The euro ships are all top notch.

With the caveat that GOES data is running slow, Beryl's structure again appears to have improved on IR with continued VHTs rotating upshear & warming eye.

With shear slightly abating today & continued warm SSTs, it may possibly re-intensify some before landfall in the Yucatan. pic.twitter.com/A25P9cfyHB

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 4, 2024

From Travis Herzog

2:30PM July 4th Beryl Update:

I want to mentally prepare you to potentially shift your expectations on Beryl's impacts to Texas next week. The storm's intensity has decreased but it has consistently tracked on the right side of the cone, or north of expectations. You can clearly see that when I lay down last night's consensus computer model tracks vs. the storm's current position and this afternoon's computer model tracks.

In my view, this is making it more likely that Beryl lands on the Texas side of the border with Mexico. Folks in South Texas need to be preparing for a potential hurricane strike on Monday, and we need to keep our guard up along the middle and upper Texas coastlines, too, in case it keeps riding the right side of the cone.

Let's wait and see what the National Hurricane Center does in their new forecast at 4PM. I wish I could go into more depth right now on all that I'm seeing in the data, but I'm doing the 3PM, 4PM, 5PM, 6PM, 9PM, and 10PM news hours on TV today, so all posts today will be brief and likely much shorter than what I just did here.

I'll do my best to keep you posted.

Live Stream: abc13.com/live
Tropical Update: abc13.com/tropicalupdate

TRM said:

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With the caveat that GOES data is running slow, Beryl's structure again appears to have improved on IR with continued VHTs rotating upshear & warming eye.

With shear slightly abating today & continued warm SSTs, it may possibly re-intensify some before landfall in the Yucatan. pic.twitter.com/A25P9cfyHB

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 4, 2024

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Can someone translate this?

My non-met opinion.
Didn't weaken as much as they expected and is re-organizing.
Re-intensifying on approach to the Yucatan points towards a landfall on the north side of the cone.

Thanks!!

beryl doesn't look like it will be exiting that quickly once it makes landfall.

The track has changed slightly. Earlier they had it passing over the entire Yucatan; this track exits on the northern part of the *****ula and it reintensifies into a hurricane sooner.

Ag12thman said:

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Doesn't look like much of a change to me.

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Forecast has been pretty consistent for the past couple of days. Gonna matter where it reorganizes after getting out into the gulf late tomorrow night.

And it certainly looks to be strengening again before Mexico landfall.

Beryl doing Beryl things again this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters taking off soon and we should have a better read of its intensity in a few hours. Certainly continues to overachieve in the face of moderate wind shear. pic.twitter.com/Y3smnjGXso

— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) July 4, 2024

How bad did Jamaica get smoked?