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Serotonin
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7:55a, 7/3/24
AG
The NHC guys do the best job of reviewing all the different models and taking everything into account for the cone forecast.

As of 8AM EDT this morning they still have this landing in Mexico as a Tropical Storm. Zero impact to Houston outside of some additional rain.


The cone of uncertainty is still wide 5 days out (Monday) but will hopefully shrink in the next day or two.
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98Ag99Grad
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8:08a, 7/3/24
AG
This morning eyewall update: https://theeyewall.com/


Quote:
  • Beryl will make a close pass to Jamaica later today as a major hurricane with surge, wind, and heavy rainfall.
  • Beryl is beginning to feel the effects of wind shear and slow, steady weakening is forecast as it comes west.
  • It is still likely to be a hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan on Friday, likely coming ashore south of Cancun and Cozumel.
  • Beryl should continue toward the northern Mexico or far south Texas coast as a tropical storm or lower-end hurricane this weekend.
  • Heavy rainfall is likely in Mexico and far South Texas as Beryl comes ashore and begins to slow down.
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AgLiving06
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8:12a, 7/3/24
My work put out this (Big Oil):

"Based on this afternoon's ECMWF ensemble guidance, I put the chances of a direcdt impact in South Texas at 20%-30% and 10%-20% in Southeast Texas (Houston/Galveston) and Southwest Louisiana (Lake Charles area).
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sts7049
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In reply to CAR96 • 8:24a, 7/3/24
AG
CAR96 said:
Laredo?
i just picked that city guessing that perhaps they were in brownsville. seeing your later posts though, sounds like you have the right idea in mind already though.
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gougler08
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 8:35a, 7/3/24
AG
AgLiving06 said:
My work put out this (Big Oil):

"Based on this afternoon's ECMWF ensemble guidance, I put the chances of a direcdt impact in South Texas at 20%-30% and 10%-20% in Southeast Texas (Houston/Galveston) and Southwest Louisiana (Lake Charles area).
We work for the same company! Or our weather guys just copy/paste
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AggieKO
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8:38a, 7/3/24
AG
So this morning's update good for Port Bolivar?
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Charlie Murphy
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In reply to Ag_07 • 8:54a, 7/3/24
Ag_07 said:
Charlie Murphy said:
Why are people already wringing hands and cancelling plans? A bit early IMO.

Depends on what the plans are.

Cancelling a flight out of Houston for work...Probably a bit premature.
Cancelling a family trip down to Port A...Probably justified.
Keep an eye on the news and Leave Port A a day early?
Welcome to the China Club

"Here's the pitch...POPPED it up! Oh man, that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
-Harry Carey
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jetch17
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In reply to Charlie Murphy • 8:59a, 7/3/24
AG
Charlie Murphy said:
Ag_07 said:
Charlie Murphy said:
Why are people already wringing hands and cancelling plans? A bit early IMO.

Depends on what the plans are.

Cancelling a flight out of Houston for work...Probably a bit premature.
Cancelling a family trip down to Port A...Probably justified.
Keep an eye on the news and Leave Port A a day early?
Our issue would be when to head down - we have a house booked this friday to next friday. Mother-in-law is wigging out, of course. Not planning to be on Mustang Island if that thing comes in hot.

i think im more pissed that is fuggs up my redfish guide i have lined up
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CAR96
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9:02a, 7/3/24
AG
HWRF model has been tracking this storm well and doesn't give a modeling track that is good
For Houston and ares east.

As a somewhat outlier , it's tracked this storm well; yet it's more of an outlier.

Mike's weather page feels strong that this model is not this as much of a lower chance because the storm may mover of the top portion of the Yucatan and it allows N E outer bands to stay over water and maintain strength.
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Charlie Murphy
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In reply to jetch17 • 9:09a, 7/3/24
Roger. That time frame makes it a tougher decision. I'd still be inclined to roll the dice and go, especially if its too late to cancel.
Welcome to the China Club

"Here's the pitch...POPPED it up! Oh man, that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
-Harry Carey
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Martin Q. Blank
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9:10a, 7/3/24
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jetch17
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9:11a, 7/3/24
AG
Frankly if its just a trop storm and hitting farther south i dont see a problem with riding it out and catching rain - i can drink beer inside all the live long day. If its right on up thru corpus/PA/Rockport stronger may have to bust out the hickory stick.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Charlie Murphy • 9:22a, 7/3/24
AG
Another thing to factor in is driving down there with the the family and all your crap then waiting to the last minute to leave and getting caught up in all that shlt storm if indeed it comes to that.

That sounds like a nightmare
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Duckhook
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9:30a, 7/3/24
AG
I'm in the RGV. NHC has been very consistent on this track for a few days now, so I'm convinced I'm getting a Cat 1 or strong tropical storm on Monday. Not planning on boarding windows at this time, so hoping it doesn't spin up real quick once it gets off the Yucatan.
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Serotonin
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In reply to Ag_07 • 9:43a, 7/3/24
AG
Ag_07 said:
Another thing to factor in is driving down there with the the family and all your crap then waiting to the last minute to leave and getting caught up in all that shlt storm if indeed it comes to that.

That sounds like a nightmare
Yep, would be a huge pain to pack up, drive down, unpack, then pack and then drive back.

For that reason I'd shave a day or two off the front end of the vacation.

Don't leave Friday -- wait until Saturday evening or Sunday morning when we'll pretty much know with certainty where landing will be on Monday.
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maroon barchetta
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In reply to jetch17 • 9:47a, 7/3/24
Don't listen to those guys.

Pack up Friday and head to the coast.

Declare on the way that this storm will be a "nothing burger" after it crosses the Yucatn peninsula.

Make your social media profile pic the one of Lt. Dan challenging God during a Hurricane from the crows nest of the Jenny 1.

What could go wrong?
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jetch17
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9:55a, 7/3/24
AG
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Charlie Murphy
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10:02a, 7/3/24
Listen to the guy with the 20 year old chappelle themed user name with nothing to lose. Roll The dice.
Welcome to the China Club

"Here's the pitch...POPPED it up! Oh man, that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
-Harry Carey
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Ag_07
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In reply to Serotonin • 10:09a, 7/3/24
AG
All in the middle of everyone else getting out of dodge while homeowners are trying to get in to handle their own shlt.

Yeah...I wouldn't blame anyone for calling off a trip this early especially if you had some kind of trip protection.

Also wouldn't blame anyone anyone for going the jtech route and saying 'F it...I can drink beer inside all week'.
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Furlock Bones
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10:13a, 7/3/24
AG
jetch. DBAP.
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scd88
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In reply to jetch17 • 10:15a, 7/3/24
AG
jetch17 said:
Frankly if its just a trop storm and hitting farther south i dont see a problem with riding it out and catching rain - i can drink beer inside all the live long day. If its right on up thru corpus/PA/Rockport stronger may have to bust out the hickory stick.



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Cromagnum
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:21a, 7/3/24
AG
Ag_07 said:
All in the middle of everyone else getting out of dodge while homeowners are trying to get in to handle their own shlt.

Yeah...I wouldn't blame anyone for calling off a trip this early especially if you had some kind of trip protection.

Also wouldn't blame anyone anyone for going the jtech route and saying 'F it...I can drink beer inside all week'.


That's always been a problem here. In the event that an evacuation is called, all the ******s in the northern half of the area clog up the roads and make it hell on the folks down at the coast who actually need to get out of harms way. That's one of the reasons Rita evacuations were so bad. That and the media hyped the **** out of that one and convinced people that Houston and New Orleans are the same after Katrina.
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Furlock Bones
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In reply to Cromagnum • 10:36a, 7/3/24
AG
Katy is packing as we type.
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Sea Speed
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10:38a, 7/3/24
AG


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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to Furlock Bones • 10:40a, 7/3/24
AG
Furlock Bones said:
Katy is packing as we type.
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Tex117
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10:41a, 7/3/24
AG
At this point, I don't see how this is an issue for Houston and/or Upper Texas Coast.

Sure, it can change. But that's any hurricane.
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AggieKO
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In reply to Tex117 • 10:51a, 7/3/24
AG
I made the mistake of venturing over to a hurricane dedicated forum. Man they are speaking as if worst-case scenarios are guaranteed. Worse than premium during a Mike Stoops hire
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98Ag99Grad
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In reply to Sea Speed • 11:01a, 7/3/24
AG
Thanks for sharing these. They've been pretty consistent throughout.
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Tex117
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In reply to AggieKO • 11:01a, 7/3/24
AG
AggieKO said:
I made the mistake of venturing over to a hurricane dedicated forum. Man they are speaking as if worst-case scenarios are guaranteed. Worse than premium during a Mike Stoops hire
LOL. I mean, sure, keep an eye on it, but it seems this wont be an issue.

I can't see how a gulf coast veteran can have any other view of this one.

(If that thing gets in the Gulf, and starts turning north, alright, we can talk, but for now...meh..)
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Cromagnum
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11:12a, 7/3/24
AG
Everyone seems to be on the same page with regards to two scenarios.

(1) Beryl gets sheared and gets weak going across the Yucatan, doesn't feel steering currents, and gets buried in Mexico.

(2) Beryl survives the shear and enters the gulf with strength and organization and will track more north.
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Furlock Bones
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11:16a, 7/3/24
AG
The sheer size of the shear will surely shear the storm.
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sts7049
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11:19a, 7/3/24
AG
are you shure?
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kubiak03
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11:23a, 7/3/24
AG
He shear is
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ChemAg15
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11:23a, 7/3/24
AG
Don't call me shearly
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to Sea Speed • 11:24a, 7/3/24
Sponsor
AG
Sea Speed said:




I'm gunna win the Brazilian internet point prize.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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