texasaggie2015 said:

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I don't recall seeing hardly any rain in the forecast today and now it looks like it might get a little rough for a while.

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TX04Aggie said:

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This is laughable. Space city was way off on this too. Wind picking up in the grove now, blowing all the debris around again.

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In brief: We may see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms move into the Houston region today, although I think rainfall accumulations will be hit or miss. Still, it's something to be aware of if you're going to be out and about today. After that we're looking at several days of hot and sunny weather, although there's a non-zero chance of a weak front early next week.

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Wednesday
There is a complex of thunderstorms near Waco and Lufkin this morning that will move steadily southward. Although I'm not convinced this line of organized storms will hold together, some showers and thunderstorms may move into Houston later this morning, likely reaching areas such as The Woodlands and Kingwood 10 am to noon, central Houston an hour or two later, and pushing into coastal counties around noon or shortly after. Anything that develops will likely have cleared the area by this evening's commute.

Rainfall amounts will be widely variable, with a few isolated locations perhaps seeing 1 to 2 inches of rain, and many other parts of the metro area no accumulations at all. I can't rule out some severe thunderstorms with this line, but overall the chances for strong winds and hail are fairly low. Highs will depend on the extent of clearing this afternoon, but most locations should reach the low 90s with partly sunny skies after the system passes through.

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Wednesday

Tomorrow morning looks a little more interesting, in terms of rainfall, as a storm system drops down from the north around sunrise. This may produce some scattered showers during the morning commute in Houston, but it's also possible that most of the rainfall stays to the east of Houston, over places like Beaumont. In any case, I don't think we'll see much in the way of severe weather. Some additional rain showers could develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours, with daytime heating. Again, chances look spotty. Most of the area probably has about a one-in-three chance of seeing rain, or less. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

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AgLA06 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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I do enjoy even the most ardent supports of CenterPoint being brought to their knees by how crappy they are.

Only think I'll say about this rain is my grass needs cut about every 3 days right now.

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Who are you talking to?

I'm starting to think you're just posting the same conversation to yourself every day.

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98Ag99Grad said:

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I'm about done with Space City and their forecasting.

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AgLiving06 said:

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CDUB98 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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I do enjoy even the most ardent supports of CenterPoint being brought to their knees by how crappy they are.

Only think I'll say about this rain is my grass needs cut about every 3 days right now.

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Who are you talking to?

I'm starting to think you're just posting the same conversation to yourself every day.

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He's sadly, a binary thinker. If you're not on board with him believing that CP is a money grubbing monopoly just sticking to everyone, then you're obviously a CP boot licker. Things like nuance, gray areas, and experience play no part in his mind.

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Still excited to pay $20,000 to not lose power every week?

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AJ02 said:

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98Ag99Grad said:

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I'm about done with Space City and their forecasting.

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Weather Channel is absolute garbage (I know, it had been for a while, but it's been glaringly apparent the last few weeks).

I just downloaded the "Tornado Alley" app and their forecast seems to be a bit better. Their radar is much better than weather channel.

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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AJ02 said:

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98Ag99Grad said:

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I'm about done with Space City and their forecasting.

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Weather Channel is absolute garbage (I know, it had been for a while, but it's been glaringly apparent the last few weeks).

I just downloaded the "Tornado Alley" app and their forecast seems to be a bit better. Their radar is much better than weather channel.

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Seems like for the past couple of years their "forecast" is only good 15 minutes out. Wild swings in the daily from one day to the next, and then hour-by-hour can swing even more wildly.

I want to know what reasonable chance there is for it to rain at some point in the day more than 15 minutes before it actually happens. Telling me there's a 10% chance of rain in the afternoon at 8am then at 1pm saying oh look the models converged so it's 100% chance of flooding rain, roof shattering hail, and oh look a tornado warning doesn't cut it!

You'd really think model interpretation would be the kind of thing that AI would excel at.

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Sea Speed said:

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I know it isn't exactly the same, but my company pays for several specific forecasts per day and those of us that rely on them noticed that about a year ago they all went to ***** They will completely miss the mark on everything and it has caused some issues at work with unexpected wx. I doubt it is related, but it is interesting that the failure seems to be a little more widespread now.

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LPHA said:

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Is there any sort of penalty that they face for giving bad forecasts that you pay for?

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Serotonin said:

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LPHA said:

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Is there any sort of penalty that they face for giving bad forecasts that you pay for?

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I don't think there's any way forecasters are going to sign up for that.

Maybe liability in the case of gross negligence but not for weather models being inaccurate.

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Why wasn't this well predicted?
This is a great question. The answer is that we have seen these kinds of setups before in which there is an atmosphere primed with moisture and instability, and with a potential trigger for supercell storms to form many times before. However, even hours before their development just west of Houston on Thursday, there was no ready data to indicate the true severity of the blow-the-doors-off storm that was coming.

It's the kind of thing where there maybe is a 1-in-50 or a 1-in-100 chance that something so severe, a supercell event with very strong straight-line winds directly over the city's urban core, could develop. If we had messaged that an "extremely dangerous and destructive event" was coming the previous 10 times there was such an atmospheric setup, and nothing of any real significance happened, who would believe us on the 11th time? There is a boy-who-cried-wolf problem here. The only real solution here is that we try harder to find that bit of data that gives us more confidence in a rare event like this one. I'm confident that Thursday's storms will be studied in depth to identify such clues.

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LPHA said:

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Is there any sort of penalty that they face for giving bad forecasts that you pay for?

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