Spin to keep people from getting too comfortable
Tine Coronavirus thread
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Last: 11 mo ago by Ciboag96
I'm not saying the protests had nothing to do with the spike. I think they had a lot to do with the spike. I also think the overcrowded bar patios in my neighborhood had something to do with it.
My point is simply a lot of things are at play here. Simply pointing to the protests over and over as the reason for the spike is tiresome. I get it, it's more annoying because the involvement of the mayor and politicians. Still, not the only reason, IMO. And I still stand by my point, it's pretty hypocritical to sit here and say people are dumb for saying the decline is only because of masks when you're beating the drum that it's only because protests are over.
My point is simply a lot of things are at play here. Simply pointing to the protests over and over as the reason for the spike is tiresome. I get it, it's more annoying because the involvement of the mayor and politicians. Still, not the only reason, IMO. And I still stand by my point, it's pretty hypocritical to sit here and say people are dumb for saying the decline is only because of masks when you're beating the drum that it's only because protests are over.
per that graph the lower bound on positive tests is 15% going back to May when there was negligible prevalence
that graph isn't telling much of a useful story tbh
that graph isn't telling much of a useful story tbh
Texan_Aggie said:No. This is Texags where its either the protests or non-compliance of wearing masks that causes spikes, never both.cone said:
lol have fun with this causation and correlation y'all
Masks probably impact the spread of the virus at least some. However, they aren't going to get us any closer to the actual goal of returning to normal any faster. Hong Kong has had widespread mask wearing throughout the pandemic. Yet their outbreak is the worst it has ever been. While it is still not as severe as ours, it's bad enough that the city leaders have ordered a lockdown. The mask compliance among the people of Hong Kong didn't help them sustain normal life.
Hong Kong was protected from the virus until the orange man removed special status. Now they have no protection from the China virus.SirLurksALot said:Texan_Aggie said:No. This is Texags where its either the protests or non-compliance of wearing masks that causes spikes, never both.cone said:
lol have fun with this causation and correlation y'all
Masks probably impact the spread of the virus at least some. However, they aren't going to get us any closer to the actual goal of returning to normal any faster. Hong Kong has had widespread mask wearing throughout the pandemic. Yet their outbreak is the worst it has ever been. While it is still not as severe as ours, it's bad enough that the city leaders have ordered a lockdown. The mask compliance among the people of Hong Kong didn't help them sustain normal life.
What are the numbers for actual cases? Logically masks would only potentially have a direct causal link to hospitalizations if it was a result of fewer cases. Masks don't actually impact the reaction of any one individual (if hospitalization is required or not) if transmitted, only if the transmission is prevented or not.cone said:
lol have fun with this causation and correlation y'all
You don't get "less sick" because of masks.
Actually you do; there is a lot of evidence that increased viral load causes more severe cases. So if a mask reduces the viral load output by 20% or 50% or 10% that can make a difference in the severity of a case, especially if there are repeated exposures.J.D. c/o 05 said:Quote:
You don't get "less sick" because of masks.
Link? Genuinely interested to read.jenn96 said:Actually you do; there is a lot of evidence that increased viral load causes more severe cases. So if a mask reduces the viral load output by 20% or 50% or 10% that can make a difference in the severity of a case, especially if there are repeated exposures.J.D. c/o 05 said:Quote:
You don't get "less sick" because of masks.
tbh I actually do buy in that masks help reduce viral load transmission and result into more mild cases in the overall spread
believe that more than masks acting as a bulwark amidst epidemic spread
believe that more than masks acting as a bulwark amidst epidemic spread
Better than 832...too bad it wasn't 281Diggity said:
Sounds like this was the first batch of "newly found deaths"...there will be more batches coming as they work through the backlog of death certs.
the youngest of which died two months ago
I imagine Houston is getting some of those from the new state numbers (see above).cone said:
the youngest of which died two months ago
Do they give any outline of what "underlying health conditions" is defined as? Is it a black box and we aren't given the definition as the public? Just curious. I think y'all may have talked about it before but I can't recall.
Here are a few articles. I was wrong; it's still a theory at this point but there's a good bit of observed evidence that viral load makes a difference. Sample sizes are pretty small for actual studies.J.D. c/o 05 said:Link? Genuinely interested to read.jenn96 said:Actually you do; there is a lot of evidence that increased viral load causes more severe cases. So if a mask reduces the viral load output by 20% or 50% or 10% that can make a difference in the severity of a case, especially if there are repeated exposures.J.D. c/o 05 said:Quote:
You don't get "less sick" because of masks.
wessimo said:
Of the nine new deaths reported, three were under 60 with no underlying conditions.
I'm not saying this is the case, but I'm also not saying it isn't, but now that we know that literally anyone who dies WITH COVID counts as a COVID death, I'm hesitant to put a whole lot of stock into deaths. And even if we do, this is still largely killing old folks and those with weakened immune systems...and at a lesser rate than the flu.
wessimo said:
Of the nine new deaths reported, three were under 60 with no underlying conditions.
All of them with no underlying health conditions were Hispanic. Also "no underlying health conditions" doesn't mean they didn't have something undiagnosed. Thirdly, someone can be morbidly obese, die of Covid and they will say they have no underlying health conditions. I've seen it first hand.
At this time, I don't understand the point of telling us whether they had underlying health conditions or not. The only reason I can think of is to create fear to get people to follow their BS regulations because "anyone can get it and die."
We know it the virus strongly affects the following:
Old people
Underlying health conditions including obesity
Minorities
These are facts that we know from dealing with the virus for 6 months. And this won't change even if a few people die without these qualities.
We know it the virus strongly affects the following:
Old people
Underlying health conditions including obesity
Minorities
These are facts that we know from dealing with the virus for 6 months. And this won't change even if a few people die without these qualities.
That someone 70-79 is listed as having "no underlying health conditions" is indicative of that phrase not meaning what many think it means.
And theories are of course a far cry from establishing an actual causal link between masks and hospitalizations. I'm not saying there's zero chance there turns out to be some link, that would be as foolish as saying it's the only explanation. However there's several other logical theories that are just as likely at this point to actually prove true, specifically in terms of the current hospitalization trends in Houston.jenn96 said:Here are a few articles. I was wrong; it's still a theory at this point but there's a good bit of observed evidence that viral load makes a difference. Sample sizes are pretty small for actual studies.J.D. c/o 05 said:Link? Genuinely interested to read.jenn96 said:Actually you do; there is a lot of evidence that increased viral load causes more severe cases. So if a mask reduces the viral load output by 20% or 50% or 10% that can make a difference in the severity of a case, especially if there are repeated exposures.J.D. c/o 05 said:Quote:
You don't get "less sick" because of masks.
- Psychology Today: Coronavirus: The Importance of Viral Load
- NYT: It's Not Whether You Were Exposed to the Virus. It's How Much.
- University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
Keegan99 said:
That someone 70-79 is listed as having "no underlying health conditions" is indicative of that phrase not meaning what many think it means.
So in another two weeks or so we'll be back to April/May levels. Seems like we're definitely over the hump. No reason schools shouldn't be open for in person, but I'm sure Lena will find a way.
Muh slope!third coast.. said:
the amount of effort sly and dora put in to shutting the city down is inversely proportional to the downward trend of actual cases.
No doubt unless Abbott supersedes hertylercsbn9 said:
So in another two weeks or so we'll be back to April/May levels. Seems like we're definitely over the hump. No reason schools shouldn't be open for in person, but I'm sure Lena will find a way.
third coast.. said:
the amount of effort sly and dora put in to shutting the city down is inversely proportional to the downward trend of actual cases.
If they don't lock everything down, how are they going to take credit for it?
tylercsbn9 said:
So in another two weeks or so we'll be back to April/May levels. Seems like we're definitely over the hump. No reason schools shouldn't be open for in person, but I'm sure Lena will find a way.
I had this exact talk with my Pastor a week ago.
He has tied some of the Church and School activities (Summer camp is open) to the rating system of Sly and Lina. I suspect they will be extremely slow in adjusting it off the "code red" and suggested he needs to be prepared to deviate when it becomes reasonable to do so.
I foresee a continued downward trend then BOOM another September red alert, hospitals are doomed, shut it all down forever it's the 3rd wave when Labor Day cause a slight uptick.
Oh yeah and we'll surely see Sly and Lina say 'See we told ya'll schools don't need to be open yet'.
Oh yeah and we'll surely see Sly and Lina say 'See we told ya'll schools don't need to be open yet'.
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