Here's the SD hospitalization chart. Things were looking better towards the end of May but then cases started ramping up again in June and July.
Tine Coronavirus thread
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Last: 2 mo ago by Ciboag96
well probably that's caused by a drop in spread and an abatement to this phase of the epidemic
All depends on what you believe the nature of the virus is. If you believe the analysis of Michael Levitt, the decline is simply related to the virus running it's course. Masks & SD may help slow things but they aren't really gonna "crush the curve" as Lina & Turner like to say.
Fitch said:
When we road tripped to Destin at the end of June there was noticeably nobody wearing them east of Louisiana other than a handful of the restaurant waiters and probably all of the grocery store cashiers.
My son said the same thing when he visited his dad in North AL for 6 weeks. He said he and his dad were about the only people wearing them. Shortly after he came home, AL issued a mask mandate.
Considering the timing of their mask order, that isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for mask wearing.
a lack of large gatherings of people to protest BLMwessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
Herd immunity - A portion of the population are naturally immune to Covid, the people that are susceptible have already gotten it, there are very few people that are susceptible that have not been exposedwessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
The Aggie number specified has already been linked with another TexAgs account.
Burnout.
Roughly 10%+ of the population has been infected (if one uses an 8x or so multiplier for the ratio of actual infections to detected infections). The Gompertz curve will peak in that neighborhood and then decline.
Roughly 10%+ of the population has been infected (if one uses an 8x or so multiplier for the ratio of actual infections to detected infections). The Gompertz curve will peak in that neighborhood and then decline.
Just like everything else, I think it's a combination of factors.
1. Closing bars probably helped a lot. I don't like it as a free-marketer who hates to see businesses suffer, but I think this was bigger than the mask mandate in helping slow things down.
2. Masks. They aren't a total fix, but they do help a little. I think having more and more people wearing masks has probably helped slow things down.
3. Protest fall-off. The people who got sick from the protests and funeral - and the people they may have infected -are now all in and/or through the system as far as tests and diagnosis.
4. People aren't totally stupid. When cases rise, a lot of people pay attention and adjust their behavior. Maybe stay home more, maybe do takeout instead of dining in, maybe don't do that neighborhood party or keep aware of distancing if you do. That's what my family has done. We haven't changed our behavior in a totally dramatic way - and my husband and I are both working in our offices not at home - but we are a little more cautious than we were in May when it looked like the worst was behind us. Obviously not everyone will do this, but I think enough do that it can impact the trend.
5. Burnout/herd immunity/etc - again, not the whole explanation, but in some sub-populations this is probably a factor. A lot of the low-hanging fruit infections have already occurred.
1. Closing bars probably helped a lot. I don't like it as a free-marketer who hates to see businesses suffer, but I think this was bigger than the mask mandate in helping slow things down.
2. Masks. They aren't a total fix, but they do help a little. I think having more and more people wearing masks has probably helped slow things down.
3. Protest fall-off. The people who got sick from the protests and funeral - and the people they may have infected -are now all in and/or through the system as far as tests and diagnosis.
4. People aren't totally stupid. When cases rise, a lot of people pay attention and adjust their behavior. Maybe stay home more, maybe do takeout instead of dining in, maybe don't do that neighborhood party or keep aware of distancing if you do. That's what my family has done. We haven't changed our behavior in a totally dramatic way - and my husband and I are both working in our offices not at home - but we are a little more cautious than we were in May when it looked like the worst was behind us. Obviously not everyone will do this, but I think enough do that it can impact the trend.
5. Burnout/herd immunity/etc - again, not the whole explanation, but in some sub-populations this is probably a factor. A lot of the low-hanging fruit infections have already occurred.
I'm a little confused as to why a grocery store bagger is coming in close enough extended contact with shoppers to contract the virus.
Maybe it's just me, but I have very little contact with baggers. I'm further away from them than I am the cashier, and I walk right past them as I leave. I don't let them carry my groceries to the car (and I would think that service would be suspended right now).
Seems much more likely that this woman got sick from a fellow employee, as you would expect employees to have more frequent and extended contact with each other, particularly in a break room.
I don't have any issue with the article - except for that point.
Also, it says the daughter got sick in mid-June. I was still seeing a fair number of people without masks at that point.
My son and I have also anecdotally observed that mask compliance varies by store, according to the following: Whole Foods/Trader Joe's >> HEB >> Lowe's/Home Depot >> Wal-Mart.
Maybe it's just me, but I have very little contact with baggers. I'm further away from them than I am the cashier, and I walk right past them as I leave. I don't let them carry my groceries to the car (and I would think that service would be suspended right now).
Seems much more likely that this woman got sick from a fellow employee, as you would expect employees to have more frequent and extended contact with each other, particularly in a break room.
I don't have any issue with the article - except for that point.
Also, it says the daughter got sick in mid-June. I was still seeing a fair number of people without masks at that point.
My son and I have also anecdotally observed that mask compliance varies by store, according to the following: Whole Foods/Trader Joe's >> HEB >> Lowe's/Home Depot >> Wal-Mart.
my main issue is the lack of editing these days. Not everything has to be "long form".TXTransplant said:
I don't have any issue with the article - except for that point.
That article could have told the same story and been 1/3 the length.
This was on LinkedIn today.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/4906460
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/4906460
agree
it's much more complicated than the space city weather guy wants it to be
which is odd to say
it's much more complicated than the space city weather guy wants it to be
which is odd to say
150 people should not dictate what happens to the lives of 330M.kapon said:
This was on LinkedIn today.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/4906460
Diggity said:my main issue is the lack of editing these days. Not everything has to be "long form".TXTransplant said:
I don't have any issue with the article - except for that point.
That article could have told the same story and been 1/3 the length.
I agree with that, too.
There was way too much extra/irrelevant info in that article, and all it did was make me wonder why the woman who works at Randall's didn't go live with her sister in order to protect the at-risk parents. But, I probably shouldn't be asking questions like that...
wessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
The surge from the protests/riots and funerals have run it's course.
aTm2004 said:wessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
The surge from the protests/riots and funerals have run it's course.
These comments are just as ignorant, short sided, and over simplified as the people saying the drop is because bars closed or because masks were mandated.
what does "run its course" mean? an event that creates a lot more infections doesn't just stop as time goes on, a lot more infected people would mean the slope of infection rate would be changed until some other factor came into play to reduce it. it wouldn't burn out until it ran out of new people to be infected. i don't think even in the most generous scenarios you could credibly say that the virus has run out of people to infect.
things that would fit the category to lessen the slope of the infection rate potentially would be a mask order, or reducing places where people are in close contact for extended periods of time. something like that.
what we've seen is a fairly dramatic lessening of the rate at which new infections are being reported. the numbers of new infected aren't just steady from day to day, but decreasing from day to day.
things that would fit the category to lessen the slope of the infection rate potentially would be a mask order, or reducing places where people are in close contact for extended periods of time. something like that.
what we've seen is a fairly dramatic lessening of the rate at which new infections are being reported. the numbers of new infected aren't just steady from day to day, but decreasing from day to day.
Quote:
what does "run its course" mean? an event that creates a lot more infections doesn't just stop as time goes on, a lot more infected people would mean the slope of infection rate would be changed until some other factor came into play to reduce it. it wouldn't burn out until it ran out of new people to be infected. i don't think even in the most generous scenarios you could credibly say that the virus has run out of people to infect.
You erroneously assume a homogenous social graph.
Less social occasions for super spreader opportunities and higher census of people taking steps to reduce their chances of transmission...basically more self responsibility.wessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
Herd immunity only means reduced efficacy of ongoing transmission due to the increased probability some people in a population have already had the disease and will not pass it along. Social distancing/mask wearing in effect do the same thing by (temporarily) reducing the chances of transmission, but are ineffective unless adopted by a critical mass.
Downward case trends are arguably a result of policy change, social adaptation and some number of "essential workers" (higher transmission vectors) having recovered -- all positively interfering and suffocating chances of propagation. To what degree each variable is effective is anyone's guess, basically every municipality is going to be different.
Now, higher headcount events/gatherings have higher probabilities of disease propagation and tilt the odds the other way, and there's still a bunch of "virgin timber" out there.
Take a win where you can get it, though. Few people in the hospital is good news regardless of why.
But they're not false. You can't sit there and claim that the huge surge we saw after was just from Memorial Day and nothing to do with the protests/funeral.htxag09 said:aTm2004 said:wessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
The surge from the protests/riots and funerals have run it's course.
These comments are just as ignorant, short sided, and over simplified as the people saying the drop is because bars closed or because masks were mandated.
what do you mean? are you supposing that the people at the protests only mingle amongst their ilk, and have thus burned through their potential pool of infected?Keegan99 said:Quote:
what does "run its course" mean? an event that creates a lot more infections doesn't just stop as time goes on, a lot more infected people would mean the slope of infection rate would be changed until some other factor came into play to reduce it. it wouldn't burn out until it ran out of new people to be infected. i don't think even in the most generous scenarios you could credibly say that the virus has run out of people to infect.
You erroneously assume a homogenous social graph.
if not, i'm not sure i follow.
I don't think anyone is saying the orders haven't helped. I just have a hard time believing the surge we saw a couple of weeks after was because of Memorial Day and people being able to grab a beer. I go back to LA County, despite having masks requirements and slow to open, was leading the country in cases when Texas saw it's surge.
Apparently Portland/Seattle have been protests for months, have they seen similar increases?
King County (Seattle) certainly has:terradactylexpress said:
Apparently Portland/Seattle have been protests for months, have they seen similar increases?
well there's at least one poster on the politics board that started a thread today claiming that the number of new cases hadn't slowed at all after 3 weeks of the mask mandate. it had something like 50 blue stars. looks like it might have been deleted, though!aTm2004 said:
I don't think anyone is saying the orders haven't helped. I just have a hard time believing the surge we saw a couple of weeks after was because of Memorial Day and people being able to grab a beer. I go back to LA County, despite having masks requirements and slow to open, was leading the country in cases when Texas saw it's surge.
that said, i think the general attitude of laxness towards the virus in may was the impetus and the protests were the single biggest thing you can point to, but i'm curious if the relaxing of the rest of the state in aggregate wasn't a bigger cause in actuality. there's probably some interesting analysis to be done.
another person pointed to "illegals coming across the border for treatment" as another reason for the surge, but no one supplied any information to lend credence to the claim.
i'll say i'm glad the protests have ended and also that people are taking wearing a mask more seriously.
As has Portland, but to their credit it is coming down over the past 2 weeks even with all the protests there
Thanks.
300 and change today, even with it being a Monday that's the lowest I remember in a long time
300 and change today, even with it being a Monday that's the lowest I remember in a long time
It would be nice if we had access to that kind of info, which we both probably agree is out there but not being released.Quote:
that said, i think the general attitude of laxness towards the virus in may was the impetus and the protests were the single biggest thing you can point to, but i'm curious if the relaxing of the rest of the state in aggregate wasn't a bigger cause in actuality. there's probably some interesting analysis to be done.
This certainly could explain the surge we're seeing around the border.Quote:
another person pointed to "illegals coming across the border for treatment" as another reason for the surge, but no one supplied any information to lend credence to the claim.
That's because everyone is being snatched up by the Storm Troopers!
Post-George Floyd Protests running it's course is my hypothesis. Combined with fewer folks going and about.wessimo said:
For those who think the decline has nothing to do with masks, what do you think is causing hospitalizations to fall off?
I'm not saying masks are completely worthless, but not everyone is wearing one, not everyone is wearing one correctly, and not everyone is wearing them consistently. I, personally, don't feel that the decline can be wholly attributed to masks.
Quote:
Things were looking better towards the end of May but then cases started ramping up again in June and July.
Do you need a reminder of what happened in late May?
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Fewer tests overall, so more of them are positive. Looking at that graphic the total number of tests given dropped dramatically too. Ridiculous that this is being spun as anything but good news.lunchbox said:
I see this and think it is good news (hasn't been this low for 6 weeks)...but I am sure most will be freaking out about it.
I am waiting for TMC to update their positivity rate. As of 7/25, it was down to 15% for the Houston area. That's a big spread to 23.3%...
#1 - I wonder why they are looking at a 14-day moving avg. I need to look and see if they went from 7 to 14 to keep the % up.jenn96 said:Fewer tests overall, so more of them are positive. Looking at that graphic the total number of tests given dropped dramatically too. Ridiculous that this is being spun as anything but good news.lunchbox said:
I see this and think it is good news (hasn't been this low for 6 weeks)...but I am sure most will be freaking out about it.
I am waiting for TMC to update their positivity rate. As of 7/25, it was down to 15% for the Houston area. That's a big spread to 23.3%...
EDIT - the last one they posted on twitter on 7/13 also had a 14-day average.
#2 - looking at the last few days on the graph, the positive % is going to plummet as soon as some of those high days drop off.
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