no link, sorry, going off of my memory of what i've seen on https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texasBMX Bandit said:do you have a link for that?07ag said:
its shifting based on info as the days go by,, earlier this week it was inline with the us peak of a week from now
on April 1, the projected peak was May 5
I think you could play with numbers a bit and say we probably could have gone another week or so before complete shut down and would have only paid a minimal price of a few hundred more deaths in the end but you would still end up with a shut down like this for a significant period of time.Quote:
I'm genuinely curious about what people think could have been done differently here in the Houston area and what should be done going forward. What is our "new normal" going to look like?
Texaggie7nine said:I think you could play with numbers a bit and say we probably could have gone another week or so before complete shut down and would have only paid a minimal price of a few hundred more deaths in the end but you would still end up with a shut down like this for a significant period of time.Quote:
I'm genuinely curious about what people think could have been done differently here in the Houston area and what should be done going forward. What is our "new normal" going to look like?
If the numbers of infections and deaths continue to undershoot the projections, I think our leaders need to start talking about how we go back to business as usual and what steps we take to minimize bounce back because we may be doing that sooner than many think, like maybe in May. I think masks are definitely going to need to be mandated for awhile. Businesses that put employees together in tight spaces probably need to be reconfigured, same for schools.
My recollection is that the April 5th update where total US deaths projected moved down to around 80k was the one where the Texas date changed from May 5 to April 19th. I found this archive link to the US data showing the 80k, but the Texas data was not crawled. As mentioned above, the US model is now showing around 60k deaths and a Texas peak of April 22nd.07ag said:no link, sorry, going off of my memory of what i've seen on https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texasBMX Bandit said:do you have a link for that?07ag said:
its shifting based on info as the days go by,, earlier this week it was inline with the us peak of a week from now
on April 1, the projected peak was May 5
The peak for NYC is supposed to be tomorrow and they are supposed to be 5,000 ICU beds short. Where are we with that?gougler08 said:
I've been looking at that almost daily and pretty sure the peak was April 19 or 20 yesterday so it has adjusted back a bit, deaths have remained flat at 2k
MATH GOD ****IT!Bondag said:The peak for NYC is supposed to be tomorrow and they are supposed to be 5,000 ICU beds short. Where are we with that?gougler08 said:
I've been looking at that almost daily and pretty sure the peak was April 19 or 20 yesterday so it has adjusted back a bit, deaths have remained flat at 2k
k2aggie07 said:
Here's some things for y'all to read while we "work from home"
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ddgry4k64oBZYfrHy/covid-19-points-of-leverage-travel-bans-and-eradication
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMe2007263
Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
TXTransplant said:Texaggie7nine said:I think you could play with numbers a bit and say we probably could have gone another week or so before complete shut down and would have only paid a minimal price of a few hundred more deaths in the end but you would still end up with a shut down like this for a significant period of time.Quote:
I'm genuinely curious about what people think could have been done differently here in the Houston area and what should be done going forward. What is our "new normal" going to look like?
If the numbers of infections and deaths continue to undershoot the projections, I think our leaders need to start talking about how we go back to business as usual and what steps we take to minimize bounce back because we may be doing that sooner than many think, like maybe in May. I think masks are definitely going to need to be mandated for awhile. Businesses that put employees together in tight spaces probably need to be reconfigured, same for schools.
I agree. I also think there are going to be some companies/businesses that don't want the risk of having an outbreak at work - those like CVX, XOM, etc. especially if a lot of their employees work in open-concept cube farms. So, even if the restrictions are lifted, I think a lot of these companies will be telling employees who work in an office to continue to stay home.
There are 10k employees just at the XOM campus in Spring. A whole ton of restaurants opened up right around there. If no one is going to the office, those restaurants won't get back to normal, even if they are allowed to open.
Downtown may continue to be Ghostown for a while, too.
gougler08 said:Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
Agreed, I work for a major O&G and we already have a process for people at the plants/refineries to get masks, assume that will be rolled out to everyone when we head back to the officesTXTransplant said:gougler08 said:Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
I agree about the testing, but there was a pretty lively discussion about it on this thread a couple of days ago. And Trump is saying there are no problems with testing.
I have not heard this will be the case, but I would not be shocked at all if my employer requires us to wear masks when we are finally allowed to go back to the office. I imagine a lot of big employers - especially those with a strong safety culture - will do the same.
gougler08 said:Agreed, I work for a major O&G and we already have a process for people at the plants/refineries to get masks, assume that will be rolled out to everyone when we head back to the officesTXTransplant said:gougler08 said:Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
I agree about the testing, but there was a pretty lively discussion about it on this thread a couple of days ago. And Trump is saying there are no problems with testing.
I have not heard this will be the case, but I would not be shocked at all if my employer requires us to wear masks when we are finally allowed to go back to the office. I imagine a lot of big employers - especially those with a strong safety culture - will do the same.
TXTransplant said:gougler08 said:Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
I agree about the testing, but there was a pretty lively discussion about it on this thread a couple of days ago. And Trump is saying there are no problems with testing.
I have not heard this will be the case, but I would not be shocked at all if my employer requires us to wear masks when we are finally allowed to go back to the office. I imagine a lot of big employers - especially those with a strong safety culture - will do the same.
CDUB98 said:TXTransplant said:gougler08 said:Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
I agree about the testing, but there was a pretty lively discussion about it on this thread a couple of days ago. And Trump is saying there are no problems with testing.
I have not heard this will be the case, but I would not be shocked at all if my employer requires us to wear masks when we are finally allowed to go back to the office. I imagine a lot of big employers - especially those with a strong safety culture - will do the same.
I found out today that the site I am at received 10,000 masks today.
I really don't want to wear a mask.
It's more about being courteous than being paranoid.CDUB98 said:TXTransplant said:gougler08 said:Yeah that does seem most likely...probably also going to go aggressive on mask usage (doubt we'll mandate it like they're starting to in CA, but it could be a good measure)k2aggie07 said:
That one I think is the most reasonable / likely path forward. And I don't know, it seems like the testing issue has sort of falling out of the public eye.
I agree about the testing, but there was a pretty lively discussion about it on this thread a couple of days ago. And Trump is saying there are no problems with testing.
I have not heard this will be the case, but I would not be shocked at all if my employer requires us to wear masks when we are finally allowed to go back to the office. I imagine a lot of big employers - especially those with a strong safety culture - will do the same.
I found out today that the site I am at received 10,000 masks today.
I really don't want to wear a mask.
Diggity said:
really? I think it would be an improvement for you
CDUB98 said:
Something I am curious about.
How is it that everyone here in the States is screaming about not being able to get tested cause there aren't enough tests, yet some cruise ship out in the BFE ocean is able test enough passengers to know that 60% have this *****
