FPS_Dough said:

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Flashdiaz said:

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Retail should bounce back ok.

Restaurant's are going to hurt when businesses reopen. People are going to be hesitant around crowds for a while and people handling their food.

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You could be right but I think people are going to want to get of the house and be social once we get back people tend to have short memories I think restaurant and events will be crowded.

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This is my thought as well. We will have a laundry list of places we want to hit up again.

Families will want to get out and hit some of their regular neighborhood places, to escape and to feel normal again.

I agree with the others.

There's going to be a lot of pent up demand and I'd wager most families are saving money because there's no eating out, sports, events, trips, or anything else.

Whatever the all clear looks like when it happens you'll see places packed right away. Not sure how long it will sustain itself but there will be a big rush of people out of their houses.

you say this, but half of the hospitalized cases rn are working age

so you might want to get out but not around other people, especially if the all clear isn't a cure or a vaccine or a confirmed herd immunity

they need a serology study to see how many people got it already ASAP

IrishTxAggie said:

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I'll be walking down to White Oak and having a drink at multiple bars. Tip the bartenders 100% at each place I go to.

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Same but 18th/19th/20th. I wonder if they'll all be open; Drift just opened a few weeks ago.

Along similar lines, Roegels has been feeding area hospitals and are taking donations to help cover the costs. Pretty worthy cause, even for a skinflint like myself.

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Yesterday had some great feels for us also. We took food down to Methodist Hospital to feed the people down there. Misty took the lunch shift down there and I took the evening shift food. From what I hear everyone loved it. Thanks to all of you that helped make that happen. Looks like we will be doing the same thing at Hermann either Friday or this weekend. We don't have a confirmed day yet. We are still looking for donations to help fund these type of projects. Those two hospitals are completely funded. We are looking to feed Ben Taub Hospital next. If you would be so kind to help us out by donating we would appreciate it. Buy an E gift card at the bottom of the email and in the name type Methodist and in the email type thepigonvoss@yahoo.com. Help us keep these first responders fed.

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Gift Card Link

Agasaurus Tex said:

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Seems like I recall him owning something like 600 restaurants. Don't forget the Kemah Boardwalk and the Pleasure Pier in Galveston.

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Restaurants, Hotels, The Rockets, and all the administrative teams tied to those who work normal office jobs.

Well crap

My Mom died two years ago.

Agasaurus Tex said:

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Speaking of pent up demand, the gentleman's clubs will probably be standing room only when they first reopen. Luckily my stripper friend of 10 years makes house calls for "dances".

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Flashdiaz said:

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Retail should bounce back ok.

Restaurant's are going to hurt when businesses reopen. People are going to be hesitant around crowds for a while and people handling their food.

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I worked in corporate retail. The patronage may return, but there are a lot of retailers that were barely treading water before all this.

You're going to see a bunch of bankruptcies in the next year or two unless there's some sort of bail-out.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Retail, nor the economy, is going to bounce back "real quick."

You guys hopping on your hipster bikes to go have a couple IPAs with the boys at your local watering hole aint but a pimple on a nat's ass compared to the long-term effects this is having on our economy.

Will it come back? Absolutely.

Real quick? No.

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you dont know that

I'll ask again

what does in the clear look like?

You looking for an exact answer? We don't know. Not sure anyone does.

I imagine the stay at home order gets lifted first, then it's when we all go back to work, and eventually sanctions get lifted on bars/restaurants.

Not sure what to tell you.

cone said:

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I'll ask again

what does in the clear look like?

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I'd say "in the clear" will be when the infections are isolated enough that we're not having repeated community spread. Ultimately then is when I feel like people will feel 100% comfortable going out to a restaurant with 100 other people.

And yes, that "clear" point will likely be a long time from now. So 6-8 months after that.

That's not to say restaurants will be barren until then -- but it will be that long before they are rolling anywhere near what they were before all of this.

jja79 said:

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Ducks is spot on I think. A lot of people are going to have less disposable income for quite a while. People for the most part will be cautious.

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While I see your point, I would be curious to see how much of the disposable income really did change pre and post lockdown.

Said another way, I would suspect that most "white collar" (using someone else's words above) jobs are likely uninterrupted in the immediate term as a lot of these can be shifted to WFH arrangements. Absent layoffs here, disposable income should have remained consistent and a bounce back would seem quicker. WFH would allow companies to continue work and the employees to continue to receive paychecks

For those persons who either lost their job or lost income because of it, the question is how much of that income was originally "disposable" and being spent on retail/restaurants/etc. I would suspect, and I'm drawing generalizations, but a majority of these type of jobs aren't creating much "disposable income" on a per person basis.

I don't know, but I would suspect this is more about socioeconomic class and the establishments attracting middle/upper class folks will rebound much quicker than those attracting the lower class. What's the proportion or distribution of that? I have no clue.

I live in central Houston and I suspect most businesses will bounce back in this area rather quickly. Most my neighbors haven't seen anything change other than they are home and not an office.

my point is that since we don't have a clue what an all-clear would look like, the idea that people are just going to be like "sounds good. let's hit the mall" on a dime is unrealistic.

demand is going to creep

We've been getting feedback from colleagues in Asia that demand is very very slow to come back and to plan accordingly for our business. I'm assuming that will generally apply to most businesses with some coming back a bit quicker than others

gonna be so much fun trying to sell my house this summer. can't wait.

CowtownAg06 said:

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I'll tell you what's interesting to me is commercial real estate leases. (I'm not in that business). If you own commercial RE and lease to a restaurant, why wouldn't you go to them right now and reduce/cancel two months of rent, then blend and extend on the back of their lease. Seems like if you hold them to current terms, you'll get nothing and then have the space sitting empty for at least 6 months once this over. Better to take a short term hit and keep your tenant alive then have the space vacant long term.

This also has implications for banks that have loans out the RE developer.

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Whatever stimulus should go towards things like this and not $1,200 so someone can go buy a new ipad. Ideally 100% of that money would go to bills or essentials, but we live in a country of idiots. I prefer to give it in small business loans, or to landlords to forgive rent for a few months to keep people employed.

I have already seen one shopping center that said that he would not charge rent for a month. That $20,000 hit will hurt him in the short term, but long term as long as those businesses stay open he will be ok.

I hear Subway has sent letters to their 20,000 landlords announcing rent will be slow or non-existent in the near term.

Link: https://fortune.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-rent-payments-retail-industry-subway-mattress-firm-covid-19/

I am in CRE and we're going to see a lot of that. I've had one tenant ask so far for rent concessions. I imagine there are more to come.

Texan_Aggie said:

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jja79 said:

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Ducks is spot on I think. A lot of people are going to have less disposable income for quite a while. People for the most part will be cautious.

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While I see your point, I would be curious to see how much of the disposable income really did change pre and post lockdown.

Said another way, I would suspect that most "white collar" (using someone else's words above) jobs are likely uninterrupted in the immediate term as a lot of these can be shifted to WFH arrangements. Absent layoffs here, disposable income should have remained consistent and a bounce back would seem quicker. WFH would allow companies to continue work and the employees to continue to receive paychecks

For those persons who either lost their job or lost income because of it, the question is how much of that income was originally "disposable" and being spent on retail/restaurants/etc. I would suspect, and I'm drawing generalizations, but a majority of these type of jobs aren't creating much "disposable income" on a per person basis.

I don't know, but I would suspect this is more about socioeconomic class and the establishments attracting middle/upper class folks will rebound much quicker than those attracting the lower class. What's the proportion or distribution of that? I have no clue.

I live in central Houston and I suspect most businesses will bounce back in this area rather quickly. Most my neighbors haven't seen anything change other than they are home and not an office.

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You are way underestimating how many white collar jobs will be lost (or already have been).