I live in Spring in what was the projected path of the "tornado". I got warnings on my phone all morning and just fell right back asleep. Oh well. I was listening for the "freight train" noise and never heard it so I figured I was okay.
RM1993 said:
Saw this when they aired it over and over on tv.....I'm mesmerized by the piece of debris that narrowly misses the car, then hits the guardrail and looks to be glowing/burning when the video comes up on it by the guardrail.
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Heavy rainfall threat tonight-Wednesday nightpowerful system to affect the area this weekend.
Longwave trough remains anchored over the SW US with numerous disturbances ejecting out of this trough and across TX. At the surface a cold front has slowly progressed to along a line from about Baytown to Pearland to Victoria this afternoon and stalled. A strong disturbance is crossing MX and will eject across SC TX tonight spreading lift across a moist air mass and the stalled frontal boundary. HRRR is very aggressive with explosive convective development overnight along the north side of the front, but think this model is likely overly excited given current radar trends. However all factors will be in place for a very wet tonight into Wednesday night with at least a couple more inches of rainfall across the region. While much of the coastal areas have experienced very little rainfall thus far, inland areas (NW of US 59) have picked up a solid 1-2 inches and soil moisture profiles are showing wetness values of 80-100% over that areaso additional rainfall will generate run-off. Additionally run-off tends to be maximized this time of year with dead vegetation from recent freezes and very low if any vegetative growth.
Rains will continue into at least early afternoon on Wednesday before a brief break and the next strong disturbances arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday. This system looks to produce heavy rains and storms SE of US 59 toward the coast. Rainfall amounts over the next 48 hours will average 1-3 inches over the area with isolated amounts of 4 inches. This rainfall on saturated grounds will lead to effective run-off and rises on area watersheds. As for severe weatheranother high shear low CAPE environment will be in place tonight into early Wednesday and this could support low topped supercells along and south of the stalled frontal boundary. These types of supercells can produce weak tornadoes similar to yesterday morning. Surface front may attempt to lift NNW early Wednesday toward or even just NW of US 59 which could bring this "marginal" severe threat inland to along US 59.
Thursday afternoon and Friday will feature a brief break in the active weatherbut this will rapidly end late Friday into Saturday as a powerful upper level low comes barreling across TX. Wind energy with this system will be "tremendous", but moisture is currently lacking. Should better moisture be found between now and Saturday evening a severe threat would be possible and in fact historical analogs with mid January similar systems support a tornado outbreak across the mid south.
Of much importance will be the track of the core of the upper level storm across N TX Saturday night allowing a powerful 80kt 700mb jet to develop on the backside of this system. GFS is forecasting 50kt 925mb winds Sunday and it is looking increasingly likely that some sort of high wind end will be possible. It is interesting to note that coastal bend analog high wind events with this setup have produce some of the most intense events. As skies clear expect strong surface moment transfer and likely Wind Advisory or rare High Wind Warning event for portions of central, SC, SE TX. Way early for any kind of wind forecasts being 6 days out, but this is something that certainly bears close watch given the forecast setup. Almost certain, even at Day 6, this will be Gale Warning criteria for all the waters and could even be Storm Warning Criteria with frequent gusts of 55+mph over the Gulf waters. Not sure I have ever seen a Storm Warning for our coastal waters everso if the forecast pans out that might be a rare first.
While it will be wet, extreme drying will take place early Sunday as 700-850mb dry air is brought rapidly to the surface behind the departing cold front. Not sure I have seen KBDI values of 0-200 with critical fire weather threatbut this Sunday appears to be that potential with widespread powerful surface winds, very low RH, and dead fine fuels from the recent freezes. The large wind loading in the low levels is concern enough and could easily negate high soil moisture values with dead fuels once dried by a few hours of strong dry winds. May be looking at high end Red Flag criteria for a large portion of TX on Sunday which is somewhat hard to believe given we are talking about flooding right now!
I think the real sh t show is that the transtar website is still using 2005 technology.Ag_07 said:
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/
What a shlt show
Yikes, and I thought my backyard looked badswimmerbabe11 said:
My backyard
My garage
Should I unplug the dryer? That's about two inches of water. All my christmas decorations are ruined most likely.
Yep. I left a little earlier this morning because I knew traffic would be worse due to the rain, but didn't know it would be this bad. As I got on 59 in Kingwood, it stated that it was 40 something minutes to 610, so I checked Google Maps, and it was blood red most of the way down, so I exited Aldine Bender and took that over to the Hardy and took the Hardy down since it was showing as green all the way to 610 (this was about 6am). Luckily, it was still moving at posted speeds when I was on it, and was able to get to 610 rather quickly and then take that around to 10. The only real traffic I hit this morning was a little on 59 between 1960 and 8, and then some on 610 at the 45 exits.Gig-Em2003 said:
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/#main
Looks real bad along 59 corridor and inner loop.
I woke up, saw the roads and said **** that, I'm working from the house todayaTm2004 said:Yep. I left a little earlier this morning because I knew traffic would be worse due to the rain, but didn't know it would be this bad. As I got on 59 in Kingwood, it stated that it was 40 something minutes to 610, so I checked Google Maps, and it was blood red most of the way down, so I exited Aldine Bender and took that over to the Hardy and took the Hardy down since it was showing as green all the way to 610 (this was about 6am). Luckily, it was still moving at posted speeds when I was on it, and was able to get to 610 rather quickly and then take that around to 10. The only real traffic I hit this morning was a little on 59 between 1960 and 8, and then some on 610 at the 45 exits.Gig-Em2003 said:
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/#main
Looks real bad along 59 corridor and inner loop.
I normally leave at 4, and somebody scheduled a meeting at 4 today, so I may try to get out of that and head out a bit early if it continues to rain all day so I can get home before mid-night.
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Should I unplug the dryer? That's about two inches of water. All my christmas decorations are ruined most likely.
Don't forget the sharks, man.ChiliBeans said:Quote:
Should I unplug the dryer? That's about two inches of water. All my christmas decorations are ruined most likely.
Poor children are being sucked into storm sewers and drowning at this very moment, countless people are stranded and fighting for their very lives, but - OH NO - Swimmer's Christmas decorations might have gotten wet!
Thanks for putting this all into perspective.
ChiliBeans said:Quote:
Should I unplug the dryer? That's about two inches of water. All my christmas decorations are ruined most likely.
Poor children are being sucked into storm sewers and drowning at this very moment, countless people are stranded and fighting for their very lives, but - OH NO - Swimmer's Christmas decorations might have gotten wet!
Thanks for putting this all into perspective.
ChiliBeans said:Quote:
Should I unplug the dryer? That's about two inches of water. All my christmas decorations are ruined most likely.
Poor children are being sucked into storm sewers and drowning at this very moment, countless people are stranded and fighting for their very lives, but - OH NO - Swimmer's Christmas decorations might have gotten wet!
Thanks for putting this all into perspective.
Same here, 290 to Beltway to I10 to Chimney Rock..no problem. Arrived here and had an email that I could have worked from home. Got to remember to check email before coming in...CDUB98 said:
I don't know whether to be happy or bothered that my commute was absolutely uneventful this morning.
On the one hand, I got to work without problems.
On the other hand, I got to work.