What's up with this soupiness outside today? Fog? Humidity? Haze?

THE HUMIDITY. It's 89, but feels like 102. It's insane how humid it is. #wfaaweather pic.twitter.com/ZxDUf8Rrw1

— Pete Delkus (@wfaaweather) June 14, 2023

Starting to fire up south of town

FTAG 2000 said:

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Might have been premature on this.

South metroplex starting to ramp up.

There's an outflow boundary from Stephenville to Godley to Midlothian to Crandall to Grand Saline. Storms starting to fire along there and haul ass east.

High end risk today. Someone going to get hammered. Should be roaring in from the NW later this evening.

Just got upgraded to enhanced. Moderate 4/5 moved into north Texas

Just stepped outside for lunch - the humidity today is ridiculous.

Started watering my plants...doing my part

Sheesh. Gorilla hail Thursday coming tonight.

Another round of severe storms is possible today!
Isolated to scattered storms will develop along an near a boundary late afternoon/early evening with most storms becoming quickly severe. Stay alert & make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings. #dfwwx #ctxwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/QtpwOciGGQ

— NWS Fort Worth (@NWSFortWorth) June 15, 2023

looks like rapid development is the real concern

The concern is 100 mph winds blowing DVD-sized (5" diameter) hail.

All during rush hour.

Where is this coming from?

Hopefully after 6! Told my wife she had to be home with car in garage by 5:30!

Nothing on the radar in Texas right now except a small shower west of Killeen. The development in OK is going due east.

Is it too hot for that dry line to form? Temps in West Texas, particularly the panhandle, are only a few degrees cooler than they are in DFW.

If the dry line doesn't form will the storms still be triggered?

mAgnoliAg said:

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Where is this coming from?

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Storms should start popping in the next 1-2 hours. Any that do will go severe quickly.

If you're talking about the wind speed and hail size forecasts, that's the computer models the National Weather Service uses to generate forecasts.

Dew point is at 80*, tied the record high ever for Dallas. That translates to fuel for storms.

Rest of the atmosphere is favorable for strong winds and updrafts, which will drive big hail development.

91AggieLawyer said:

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Nothing on the radar in Texas right now except a small shower west of Killeen. The development in OK is going due east.

Is it too hot for that dry line to form? Temps in West Texas, particularly the panhandle, are only a few degrees cooler than they are in DFW.

If the dry line doesn't form will the storms still be triggered?

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It appears that a southern stream perturbation is crossing Texas. May be contributing to early convective initiation across southwestern Oklahoma and even attempts down in Texas Hill Country. #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/YK9HvYDV8g

— Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ) June 15, 2023

Dry line is out there.

18z surface analysis #kswx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/hFcP2xtKUY

— Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ) June 15, 2023

There's a cell trying to go up by Eliasville and South Bend. If that goes, it will be trouble for the north side of the Metroplex.

As an aside, that tornadic cell in outside of Lawton OK is a monster.

FTAG 2000 said:

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There's a cell trying to go up by Eliasville and South Bend. If that goes, it will be trouble for the north side of the Metroplex.

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seems like several cells have tried to form due west and have died due to the cap holding

2wealfth Man said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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There's a cell trying to go up by Eliasville and South Bend. If that goes, it will be trouble for the north side of the Metroplex.

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seems like several cells have tried to form due west and have died due to the cap holding

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This they're dying right after forming

Damn that Lawton cell is really hooking south. Could be a problem for Grayson and Collin if it stays on track.

FTAG 2000 said:

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There's a cell trying to go up by Eliasville and South Bend. If that goes, it will be trouble for the north side of the Metroplex.

As an aside, that tornadic cell in outside of Lawton OK is a monster.

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Extreme north side of metroplex. Not real sure it is actually metroplex. More like Red River area and south a little.

Does not appear anything coming in from the west. Pete Delkus has a jacket on so it can't be too severe.

that cell is creeping right down the dry line. Sherman gonna be under the gun here soon.

That's pointed at my house

Well they got the location way wrong on this one...again.

NWS expects storms in DFW area, initially forming in the 7-8 PM window.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1084.html

While
initially weak, especially with southern extent, low-level shear
should intensify this evening as the low-level jet increases. This
may also aid in some upscale growth of ongoing storms, and some
expansion of additional storms moving south across the Red River
from OK. Should this occur, a locally greater risk for damaging
winds may develop, especially across the northeastern portions of
WW309 toward the DFW metroplex later this evening.

agcrock2005 said:

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Well they got the location way wrong on this one...again.

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And another update from the NWS -

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1087.html

Quote:

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Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern OK into north-central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...309...

Valid 152354Z - 160130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307, 309 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe/damaging winds, and
tornadoes will continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...The supercell thunderstorm complex in southern OK may
be trying to grow into a small bowing cluster based on recent radar
trends. The environment downstream remains quite favorable
along/south of an effective warm front that extends from
western/southern OK into north-central and northeast TX. Large hail
will remain possible with these intense thunderstorms in the short
term, and severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern if
a more linear mode becomes dominant. If this mode transition occurs,
then significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) would become more
likely given the very large reservoir of buoyancy available. Backed
low-level flow near the surface front is promoting a narrow corridor
of 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH per latest mesoanalysis estimates.
Given the favorable low-level shear, tornadoes will remain possible
with embedded circulations. A local extension in area for Tornado
Watch 309 may be needed for part of north-central into northeast TX
if convection continues to track southeastward.

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Nws went from 60% chance earlier today to 20%

https://www.youtube.com/live/ThL3-VzlWpc?feature=share

Ryan Hall - good live YouTube weather guy.

wangus12 said:

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agcrock2005 said:

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Well they got the location way wrong on this one...again.

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Was going off earlier predictions that it would be here (I'm in Northlake/Argyle area) much earlier than now, and everything has been much further north than us. We have nothing so far. Delkus just tweeted this about 20 minutes ago. Seems this week has so much uncertainty that nobody knows what's going on though!

Right now, everything is north! https://t.co/SRnLnJilBz

— Pete Delkus (@wfaaweather) June 16, 2023