Zillow put out an article today that said Austin's median home price increased 23.6% in 2020 alone. Is COVID really causing the lack of inventory for sale? Anyone in the local real estate market noticing sellers are hesitant despite the strong sellers market?

Buyers are currently paying $50,000 over the appraisal for property. To me that is bananas. Smells like a bubble. However, people keep moving here (a lot of people) and we have less than 30 days worth of inventory.

I've been searching for almost a year, and have been outbid on multiple occasions despite offering 20k or more above asking.

I don't think it's a bubble either. We're in a shortage right now with no end in sight.

Saw someone post yesterday that the total available SF units in the Austin Metro has fallen below 1,000. It hasnt been that low in decades.

It is crazy right now. Home in Bee Cave was shown last weekend and 150 people came. 17 contracts were presented. Only ones considered were above asking price. And this is well over $1MM asking price.

I guess it depends how much the listings are. I'll put it this way. It's very common to go up to 10% above asking. And almost absolute minimum of 5% above

I have only been paying attention to Austin proper, is this consistent with the entire metro area?

I just got a text out of the blue from a realtor wanting to buy my house in RR. Knew my name address and phone number.

BQ78 said:

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I just got a text out of the blue from a realtor wanting to buy my house in RR. Knew my name address and phone number.

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They comb through the CAD and blast these out, usually to homes they suspect are in poor condition based on their potential market value.

Population still growing. Jobs still coming in. Construction dragged to a crawl due to materials and supply problems.

Flipping homes right now could earn a boatload of cash if you can find materials to do refurbishment.

I live 40 miles outside town and we have houses going up all around us after nothing new for 5 years.

AggieOO said:

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we've had multiple houses go up for sale on our street in the past 6 months. Each time, there is a line down the street of people waiting to see the house. It is insane.

My brother-in-law was telling me a friend of his stopped taking offers at 30 and ended up selling for 100K over asking.

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Yep that's what happened with our friends.
60 showings and 43 offers in one day and took 100k over asking that night

This was a 375-400k listing

500,000ags said:

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I have only been paying attention to Austin proper, is this consistent with the entire metro area?

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i'm in RR. Brother in law is in hutto, as is his friend. See my comments above.

Coworker of mine trying to relocate from the Bay Area to NW Austin (more like Cedar Park area, Brushy Creek, out that way) is having a hell of a time finding anything. I've already told him we're full but he won't listen! Anyway he's losing out on $450-$500k range homes after offering 15% over asking.

So I guess my best option is to wait for the post-COVID world and see if the sun-belt migration at least slows. Seems like this market isn't just hot right now, but completely crazy with people wanting to escape the more severe lockdowns.

Despite some people getting hit hard due to COVID, I read that overall bank deposits and consumer debt levels point to a lot of people with an ability purchase homes right now. That's actually my biggest concern that this market could just be the reality for a good while.

I mean if you don't mind a commute from 30 minutes south I'd sell my house for 100K over asking.

Damn!

It is impossible to get a house on Lake Austin these days. I have been looking at some off market sales this past 6 months and there have been several 10-25 million transactions.

I had someone knock on my door Sunday. Wanted to know if I would sell. Can't in this market. No where to go. Every single house in my area is under contract

Crazy times.

The uplands? I saw the line of people waiting for her to open the door. Insane. Makes me want to sell my house, but where would we go?

I don't think it's a bubble because it's a supply issue. Austin has been an it place to live for sometime but the job market hasn't supported it but now so many high earning professional services table won't require you to be an office anymore, Austin is now on the table

In our area of HP we are seeing 5-700 a square foot

The time it takes to bring lot supply on-line in austin/Travis county is making it difficult to help mitigate the rapidly rising prices. Routine projects taking up to 3 years to permit first phase. Travis county is taking over a year to approve traffic studies for basic single family developments. You have to have that approved before you submit a final plat. Have to have that approved before you can submit construction plans. And so on. It's like a 1849 gold rush with demand, and it's impossible for the development industry to keep up. If you can find land to buy.

We looked at a home listed for $925 in Lost Creek. Ended up selling for $1.22M and it wasn't even that nice. I think a 4/3.

This city is so focused on parks, bike lanes, police reform, rent assistance programs, and you have builder after builder saying the process from start to end has gone from 5-6 months to 10-12....and the city can't even keep up.

Yes, The Uplands. Another house about a block west is apparently getting ready to sell. On Monday, I saw about 10 newish SUVs with about 10 moms in various stages of update looking over the house. It is officially silly around Barton Creek.

Complete Idiot said:

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Better find some new water supply, we all saw what happened 2011 and in the couple years after that. Our area had a project to deepen the water intake in Lake Travis for our water supply, the prior intake level was at risk to go above water. I may be paranoid, but I think a historic (and we only have around 150 years of history here) drought could be really bad for this area given the growth.

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The point is generally there and there needs to be a focus on building more reservoirs, etc. Things are not that bleak.

Several things changed since then....new reservoir downstream to allow capture for the farmers, change in crop seeds to promote less water use, acceptance of "brownish" lawns, completion of Buchanan Dam improvements, etc.

The city's water plan cannot sell enough water right now due to the conservation efforts.

Plenty of water for my lifetime and several others

tamc93 said:

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Complete Idiot said:

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Better find some new water supply, we all saw what happened 2011 and in the couple years after that. Our area had a project to deepen the water intake in Lake Travis for our water supply, the prior intake level was at risk to go above water. I may be paranoid, but I think a historic (and we only have around 150 years of history here) drought could be really bad for this area given the growth.

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The point is generally there and there needs to be a focus on building more reservoirs, etc. Things are not that bleak.

Several things changed since then....new reservoir downstream to allow capture for the farmers, change in crop seeds to promote less water use, acceptance of "brownish" lawns, completion of Buchanan Dam improvements, etc.

The city's water plan cannot sell enough water right now due to the conservation efforts.

Plenty of water for my lifetime and several others

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I certainly hope so, I certainly hope they are planning for catastrophic droughts. The issues I was recalling are in this article: https://www.statesman.com/article/20130816/NEWS/308169696

They had to lower the intake to 590 feet due to the severity of the drought. Will that be sufficient? Could there be a worse drought than what was starting in 2011? It wouldn't seem likely in the near term, given the historical odds, but it will eventually happen.

You can see LCRA highland lake water consumers here: https://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply-planning/water-use-summary/ . Take note of the firm contracts and in the increase in municipal usages in just the four year period depicted. The area continues to explode and water usage will continue to sky rocket.

I think there is plenty of water with a well thought out reservoir and distribution system in place - most of what we have is many decades old, beyond the new Scott Arbuckle reservoir you noted. That was the first reservoir added to the LCRA system in 50 years.

What about Buda or Kyle? Is it worthwhile to buy there? Or is Round Rock better? Assume I need to commute to downtown and don't mind a 45 minute drive.

12law said:

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What about Buda or Kyle? Is it worthwhile to buy there? Or is Round Rock better? Assume I need to commute to downtown and don't mind a 45 minute drive.

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They'll be every bit of 45 minutes when traffic returns. Maybe 45-60 to go 20-22 miles at rush hour.

evan_aggie said:

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12law said:

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What about Buda or Kyle? Is it worthwhile to buy there? Or is Round Rock better? Assume I need to commute to downtown and don't mind a 45 minute drive.

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Where would you recommend I buy at? Any particular community?
They'll be every bit of 45 minutes when traffic returns. Maybe 45-60 to go 20-22 miles at rush hour.

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