The UT model looks terribly inaccurate on first look. I think they are underestimating how much social interactions are being cut.

Frozen Concoction said:

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Thanks for the tip. Is this the link? http://www.wcchd.org/COVID-19/dashboard.php
That presents a much more useful picture of the local situation.

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yes thanks. I intended to embed the link, but obviously didn't.

ContinentalAg said:

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The UT model looks terribly inaccurate on first look. I think they are underestimating how much social interactions are being cut.

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Their model is based on the spread of Zika virus. Zika is spread by mosquitos so social distancing would have limited effect since mosquitos will fly more than 6 feet. It isn't clear how they modeled the social distancing onto their zika-like epidemiology.

They also assume 10X infections relative to the number of confirmed cases. That seems really big, but who knows. That kind of undetected pool of infection makes sense for something that is generally very mild, but maybe not accurate for COVID-19.

aggielax48 said:

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Travis County had symptom onset graph as well up until a couple days ago. Don't know why they took it down. Looking back at data from 2+ weeks it appeared the number of cases based on symptom onset was starting to go down. Not sure if that data is available elsewhere to keep tracking that.

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I wonder if the down trend at the end of the data is because of the delay between symptom onset and getting the test results.

No doubt. I was trying to see if there was a trend down only using data back two weeks and further to account for delayed testing. It appeared that my be starting to trend down but they took the data off.

1074 cases, 21 deaths

Random thought : I get out every other day for whatnot, and I don't recall ever seeing any law enforcement vehicles. They must be drastically cut back too.

Aust Ag said:

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Random thought : I get out every other day for whatnot, and I don't recall ever seeing any law enforcement vehicles. They must be drastically cut back too.

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I was out throwing a frisbee around with a buddy at Bowie High on Wednesday and some cop showed up to shoo everyone away. There were maybe literally 15 of us in an area that including about 20 tennis courts, a football field, a track, and lots of grassy space outside of the track.

1092, 23 deaths
262 recoveries

1,108 cases, 25 deaths, 267 recovered.

Only 81 people in the hospital. Down from 89 a couple days ago.

Todays numbers could be telling. Just a weekend dip or a permanent downtrend?

I was out and about at a park this weekend, I can tell you there are a lot more people out on the roads and at parks. I have seen more police patrolling which was interesting as I never see them in South Austin.

1,174 cases, 26 deaths, 85 hospitalized, 293 recovered.

58% of the deaths in Nursing homes in Travis.

If I'm reading Wilco's dashboard correctly, we have added one new confirmed case over the past two days, and we have had no confirmed cases transmitted via community spread since April 8th.

Around 75% of deaths are 70-older and 12% or so 60-69. So almost 90% on those sub groups. Definitely an old person virus.

Frozen Concoction said:

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If I'm reading Wilco's dashboard correctly, we have added one new confirmed case over the past two days, and we have had no confirmed cases transmitted via community spread since April 8th.

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Their graph of case count by transmission types is back dated to symptom onset.

Looks like they added one case in CP yesterday. Also, there has been a historical trend of leveling off over the weekend and making up for it on Tuesday. Not sure I would read so much into Sun/Mon results without looking at what is reported Tuesday.

SteveBott said:

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Around 75% of deaths are 70-older and 12% or so 60-69. So almost 90% on those sub groups. Definitely an old person virus.

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Amen, praise the data. Nothing to fear.

1233, 27 deaths
331 recoveries

1266, 28 deaths
344 recoveries
79 hospitalizations

aggielax48 said:

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1266, 28 deaths
344 recoveries
79 hospitalizations

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Thanks I've been slipping. Three straight days of decline.

This is good news.

1312, 31 deaths
368 recoveries
79 hospitalizations

Little bit of an uptick but I think in general numbers are down over the last week.

The average number of confirmed new infections in Travis since March 31st is 46.1. The current seven day moving average (I used this to smooth the weekend lows and Tuesday highs) is 40.2. So recoveries would seem to be keeping pace (or outpacing) with new infections if there's anything that can be read from those numbers. [/shrug]

Seems promising at least.

I feel like understanding who's coming down with this would also be helpful. Are we seeing healthcare workers or folks working at grocery stores being diagnosed vs random individuals who have been sheltering in place?

For Texas the case demographics versus the death demographics are very telling, the death rates are considerably higher in the 80+ range.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Frozen Concoction said:

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The average number of confirmed new infections in Travis since March 31st is 46.1. The current seven day moving average (I used this to smooth the weekend lows and Tuesday highs) is 40.2. So recoveries would seem to be keeping pace (or outpacing) with new infections if there's anything that can be read from those numbers. [/shrug]

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That is basically what we want for flatten the curve until herd immunity approach. Keep a steady state of active cases that the healthcare system can handle and let the immunity build at a manageable rate.

More generally, since recovery is about 4 weeks post infection, the new cases (1+ week post infection) are roughly equivalent to the cases that were infected a month ago. Either we are flat or have reached the other side of the peak.

1,379 cases, 32 deaths, 70 hospitalized.

Pretty dang good numbers with a county population of 1.274 million

Adler says

Get on ze knees!!

We all gonna die!!!

1,396 cases, 36 deaths, 65 hospitalized.

It got into a nursing home here in Wilco. Dozens of infections as a result. Very sad.
https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/williamson-county-confirms-first-covid-19-cluster-at-nursing-home/

Not good news here.

Good chart from KXAN for the Central Texas area showing weekly average cases down for the first time this week. Deaths are up but we know that is a lagging data point. The article stated this is from their 14 county viewing area, clearly driven by Travis County numbers.

1412, 39 deaths
70 hospitalizations
398 recoveries