B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

773,077 Views | 5327 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Nosmo
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Some "bars" indeed are open at Northgate, but as noted only a few.

Can't helping thinking one of the biggest reasons our local hospitalization/fatality rate remains low is that GoCo remains closed...given the evidence of obesity's impact on COVID morbidity.
what is GoCo?
MiMi
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S
Quote:

what is GoCo?
Golden Corral
cavscout96
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scd88 said:

So, to make this about the actual numbers....

We are seeing a downward trend. Can I say that without jinxing it? Is it a coincidence that the mask wearing was made mandatory and now we are seeing reduced numbers?

As much of an anti-masker that I am (don't shame me - I still wear them...) I can't help but think it has made a difference. What else? Shutting down Northgate?
maybe. maybe not.

correlation =/= causation.

Masking is not the only measure in place. I've perceived a drop in overall movement corresponding to masking order + bars closing. Nothing like March, but definitely less than late May and June. All empirical so only relevant to the places I drive to and through, but it's a fair part of all of CS and portions of Grimes, Washington, and Waller counties. Have not spent much time in Bryan last month or so.
90 bull
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58% occupancy is a killer for a hospital.
scd88
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Yeah, I would agree it's a lot of factors. Also seems like testing is way down and we are over the hump until the students get here.

I think we are ready. Let's do it. We need the kids back.
Rapier108
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cavscout96 said:

scd88 said:

So, to make this about the actual numbers....

We are seeing a downward trend. Can I say that without jinxing it? Is it a coincidence that the mask wearing was made mandatory and now we are seeing reduced numbers?

As much of an anti-masker that I am (don't shame me - I still wear them...) I can't help but think it has made a difference. What else? Shutting down Northgate?
maybe. maybe not.

correlation =/= causation.

Masking is not the only measure in place. I've perceived a drop in overall movement corresponding to masking order + bars closing. Nothing like March, but definitely less than late May and June. All empirical so only relevant to the places I drive to and through, but it's a fair part of all of CS and portions of Grimes, Washington, and Waller counties. Have not spent much time in Bryan last month or so.
The downward trend started right about the time Abbott decided he could order people to wear masks, and right about the time one would have expected to see a decrease from the "protests" induced spike.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
isitjustme
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Rapier108 said:

cavscout96 said:

scd88 said:

So, to make this about the actual numbers....

We are seeing a downward trend. Can I say that without jinxing it? Is it a coincidence that the mask wearing was made mandatory and now we are seeing reduced numbers?

As much of an anti-masker that I am (don't shame me - I still wear them...) I can't help but think it has made a difference. What else? Shutting down Northgate?
maybe. maybe not.

correlation =/= causation.

Masking is not the only measure in place. I've perceived a drop in overall movement corresponding to masking order + bars closing. Nothing like March, but definitely less than late May and June. All empirical so only relevant to the places I drive to and through, but it's a fair part of all of CS and portions of Grimes, Washington, and Waller counties. Have not spent much time in Bryan last month or so.
The downward trend started right about the time Abbott decided he could order people to wear masks, and right about the time one would have expected to see a decrease from the "protests" induced spike.
And right about the time summer session I ended. More students were still in town for summer I but went home for summer ii b/c they either didn't take a class summer II or figured they might as well take it from home since it's online anyway. Fewer young people, fewer parties, fewer cases.
cavscout96
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MiMi said:

Quote:

what is GoCo?
Golden Corral
ahhhh..... thanks.
MBAR
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Rapier108 said:

cavscout96 said:

scd88 said:

So, to make this about the actual numbers....

We are seeing a downward trend. Can I say that without jinxing it? Is it a coincidence that the mask wearing was made mandatory and now we are seeing reduced numbers?

As much of an anti-masker that I am (don't shame me - I still wear them...) I can't help but think it has made a difference. What else? Shutting down Northgate?
maybe. maybe not.

correlation =/= causation.

Masking is not the only measure in place. I've perceived a drop in overall movement corresponding to masking order + bars closing. Nothing like March, but definitely less than late May and June. All empirical so only relevant to the places I drive to and through, but it's a fair part of all of CS and portions of Grimes, Washington, and Waller counties. Have not spent much time in Bryan last month or so.
The downward trend started right about the time Abbott decided he could order people to wear masks, and right about the time one would have expected to see a decrease from the "protests" induced spike.
The spike was not the protests. If you think it was, then explain the open table and mobility data that shows otherwise. Protests were no were near as many people as were in restaurants and bars Its insane how much data you have to ignore to keep pushing a narrative like this.

You have complained a LOT in this thread about people not keeping it on subject. But then you come and make posts like this. What you really mean when you make complaints about keeping it on subject is that you don't like the substance of what others post because it doesn't conform to the view of this situation that you want to keep.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
AgCPA
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The downward trend could also mean we are reaching herd immunity. Only time will tell.
cavscout96
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AgCPA said:

The downward trend could also mean we are reaching herd immunity. Only time will tell.
Levitt, Stanford Nobel Scientist, has put HI for this at 15-20% I think.

If you can reasonably assume the ACTUAL infection rates are 8-9 x (estimates are that it is 6-20x more than current confirmed numbers) what has been detected and reported, we MIGHT be close to those levels.

A 21 July ABC news article places it at "potentially" 10x the current reported cases.
isitjustme
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Today's numbers are already out. 597 active cases in Brazos county, or 0.26% of the population.
Rapier108
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37 New Cases
0 New Deaths
444 Reported Tests
31 in the hospital
Hospital occupancy up a bit, ICU up barely.

77801 +5
77802 +5
77803 +7
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +5
77845 +11

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.30.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
KidDoc
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I find the rising hospital trend a bit concerning. I guess with the typical lag of first sx to severe disease of 10-14 days it kind of makes sense.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
trouble
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2 discharges

53 recovered

31 Brazos Co patients, 69 regional

Brazos Co hospitals
Total Bed Occupancy: 65%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 75%

Regional
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 394
Available Hospital Beds - 103
Available ICU Beds - 4
Available Ventilators - 45
AgCPA
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According to my doc brother at least half the occupancy is not covid related and it is not unusual to see higher occupancy levels during a bad flu season... so we are doing fairly well.
trouble
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I think KidDoc was referring to the increase in Covid patients since yesterday.
tb9665
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People talk about herd immunity. Do people forget that there are long term effects of this virus in young and old? Just ask the people who have had it.
isitjustme
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tb9665 said:

People talk about herd immunity. Do people forget that there are long term effects of this virus in young and old? Just ask the people who have had it.
the virus is too new for anyone to know about the long term effects of this virus, unless your horizon spans only 4 months.
KidDoc
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AgCPA said:

According to my doc brother at least half the occupancy is not covid related and it is not unusual to see higher occupancy levels during a bad flu season... so we are doing fairly well.
Yes the graph specifically is patients hospitalized with COVID. I am not worried about the percentage occupancy at this time but the aggressive climb in hospitalized COVID over the last 2-3 days.
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redd38
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tb9665 said:

People talk about herd immunity. Do people forget that there are long term effects of this virus in young and old? Just ask the people who have had it.


None of the people I know that have had it have any lingering effects
Hammerheadjim
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MiMi said:

Quote:

what is GoCo?
Golden Corral
The Golden Trough as my pappy used to say.
Walk softly and carry a big stick! Make sure the big stick makes big boom noises and flashy bright lights.
Rapier108
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redd38 said:

tb9665 said:

People talk about herd immunity. Do people forget that there are long term effects of this virus in young and old? Just ask the people who have had it.


None of the people I know that have had it have any lingering effects
Most people don't. Those that have suffered the worst cases of it, and nearly all of those had multiple underlying health issues, are the group where there have been longer lasting issues. And one has to wonder how many of those were from early on, when hospitals were putting people on ventilators the instant they were admitted. It is now painfully well known that ventilators are the options of absolute last resort, and make things much worse.

"Long term effects" gets brought up a lot by the coronadoomers as a reason to keep everything shutdown forever.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
KidDoc
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Rapier108 said:

redd38 said:

tb9665 said:

People talk about herd immunity. Do people forget that there are long term effects of this virus in young and old? Just ask the people who have had it.


None of the people I know that have had it have any lingering effects
Most people don't. Those that have suffered the worst cases of it, and nearly all of those had multiple underlying health issues, are the group where there have been longer lasting issues. And one has to wonder how many of those were from early on, when hospitals were putting people on ventilators the instant they were admitted. It is now painfully well known that ventilators are the options of absolute last resort, and make things much worse.

"Long term effects" gets brought up a lot by the coronadoomers as a reason to keep everything shutdown forever.
This is not accurate.

A very small number of young healthy patients have developed a delayed hyperinflammatory reaction (MIS-C) that can lead to heart and brain problems. Also there have been reports of strokes late in the course in otherwise healthy people. These are very rare though and,at this time, not considered a common enough problem to alter public policy. All virus can cause very rare and odd problems but we don't shut down the country for them. Feel free to look up Guillian-Barre, transverse myelitis, viral myocarditis, etc for examples of these rare but scary complications.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/children/mis-c.html
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
K2T2
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Quote:

"Long term effects" gets brought up a lot by the coronadoomers as a reason to keep everything shutdown forever.
This is just a friendly reminder that you've been the person to bring up doom the most in this entire thread. Maybe the new stimulus package should be every time Rapier says "doom", everyone gets a dollar.
Rapier108
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KidDoc said:

Rapier108 said:

redd38 said:

tb9665 said:

People talk about herd immunity. Do people forget that there are long term effects of this virus in young and old? Just ask the people who have had it.


None of the people I know that have had it have any lingering effects
Most people don't. Those that have suffered the worst cases of it, and nearly all of those had multiple underlying health issues, are the group where there have been longer lasting issues. And one has to wonder how many of those were from early on, when hospitals were putting people on ventilators the instant they were admitted. It is now painfully well known that ventilators are the options of absolute last resort, and make things much worse.

"Long term effects" gets brought up a lot by the coronadoomers as a reason to keep everything shutdown forever.
This is not accurate.

A very small number of young healthy patients have developed a delayed hyperinflammatory reaction (MIS-C) that can lead to heart and brain problems. Also there have been reports of strokes late in the course in otherwise healthy people. These are very rare though and,at this time, not considered a common enough problem to alter public policy. All virus can cause very rare and odd problems but we don't shut down the country for them. Feel free to look up Guillian-Barre, transverse myelitis, viral myocarditis, etc for examples of these rare but scary complications.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/children/mis-c.html
I wasn't trying to say it was only people with severe cases. Yes, long term problems can happen to anyone, but far more likely with those who suffer the worse cases, and generally have conditions which make those cases worse.

But like every many other viruses out there, anyone can suffer extreme or unusual side effects.

Edit: Fox News has a story about a study done by King's College in the UK about different "types" of the virus. It might be of some interest to you and other docs on this forum, but I don't post on F84.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/different-types-covid-19-study
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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I don't know what the hell you're smoking, but you should lay off.

Coronadoom is one of the things I hate the most, and on a regular basis, I criticize it. Unless you're taking some of my comments mocking it out of context, then I have no clue what the hell you're talking about.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
Rapier108
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27 New Cases
126 Reported Tests
0 New Deaths
Back to 26 in the hospital
Good drop in total and ICU occupancy rates

77801 +1
77802 +1
77803 +8
77807 +7
77808 +1
77840 +3
77845 +6

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.31.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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Rapier108 said:

27 New Cases
126 Reported Tests
0 New Deaths
Back to 26 in the hospital
Good drop in total and ICU occupancy rates

77801 +1
77802 +1
77803 +8
77807 +7
77808 +1
77840 +3
77845 +6

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.31.20.pdf

Active cases nosedived to 242.
trouble
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8 discharges

382 moved to recovered

26 Brazos Co patients, 70 regional

Brazos Co
Total Bed Occupancy: 57%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 61%

Regional
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 418
Available Hospital Beds - 110
Available ICU Beds - 2
Available Ventilators - 45
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
Bunk Moreland
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Can we go outside and play yet?
FlyRod
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Yes...for the next few weeks until the returning students send us back into hibernation.
 
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