B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

827,015 Views | 5633 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by Nosmo
Rapier108
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agrab86 said:

Thanks. BTW, 77843 is campus as you likely know. So it's someone's campus po box address or we have students living on campus this summer and it's one of them.
Yeah, no idea on that one.

I didn't think there were any students living on campus, but maybe some foreign students who stayed?

I'm sure someone who posts here would know the answer.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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AG
91_Aggie said:

scd88 said:

I've done a poor job explaining myself as I feel y'all have missed the point. I'm not railing against the masks and those who wear them; I'm lamenting the situation and the fact that we are at this point.

If you don't get at least a little irritated by how we got here and that being in public has changed quite a bit because of a virus, then I don't know what to say.

I keep asking where I've said people shouldn't wear masks and nobody answers me. Lol.


No worries. Your original post was not clear about why you hated "mask culture", and we have others, who believe their "right to express themselves" is more important to them than just being a good and decent person.

So it seemed like you were an Anti-masker. My apologies for lumping you in with people who are more BSC than anti-vaxxers.
false dilemma / red herring

ad hominem
MiMi
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S
So far this week, there have been 4783 tests reported and 117 positive cases. While I know that tests and positive cases are reported separately, it looks like the rolling positivity rate might decrease significantly compared to last week? I'm looking forward to seeing Lockett93's updated spreadsheet.
scd88
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AG
I've created/thrown gas on a sensitive issue that's not related to the purpose of this thread. I apologize for that.

Let's get back to the numbers. Rapier is doing a great job with the reporting. Thank you!
trouble
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AG
Another 25 added to recovered.
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

2 in 80's
2 in 60's
2 in 50's
6 in 40's
9 in 30's
43 in 20's
6 in 15-19
2 in <15

13 Af. Am
38 Caucasian
18 Hispanic

33 male, 39 female

43 in CS zips
29 in Bryan zips
75AG
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AG
The death reported was a 60 YO hospitalized patient. Did this person have co-morbid conditions? Why can't we know this? Without the patient's name or other identifiable info, how could this possibly be a HIPPAA violation. But more importantly it is NEEDED information.

Sorry if already discussed, but I didn't want to look back over dozens of pages.
JMac03
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Rapier108 said:

agrab86 said:

Thanks. BTW, 77843 is campus as you likely know. So it's someone's campus po box address or we have students living on campus this summer and it's one of them.
Yeah, no idea on that one.

I didn't think there were any students living on campus, but maybe some foreign students who stayed?

I'm sure someone who posts here would know the answer.
I am pretty sure there are students at least living in The Gardens - most of them live there year around. I was out at Hensel this past week and I am pretty sure I saw cars there.
scd88
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AG
Thanks. You provide great information and context.
cavscout96
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AG
lockett93 said:

Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

2 in 80's
2 in 60's
2 in 50's
6 in 40's
9 in 30's
43 in 20's
6 in 15-19
2 in <15

13 Af. Am
38 Caucasian
18 Hispanic

33 male, 39 female

43 in CS zips
29 in Bryan zips

so, two very significant bumps, and, right now, the PR is about "normal" at 5-6%

I suck at graphs from Spread Sheets, do these bumps, generally, coincide with Memorial Day and the height of the recent protests?

OR

Are we dramatically increasing testing due to better contact tracing, where before we were only testing those "most likely" to actually return a positive result since we had limited testing capacity?

Bunk Moreland
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Last 14 day totals of new positive cases by age:

90's: 0
80's: 8
70's: 12
60's: 22
50's: 54
40's: 69
30's: 84
20's: 209
15-19: 78
0-14: 32
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75AG
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AG
Pleading total ignorance here: Do other county health officials release the patient's condition that lead to their death?
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Belton Ag
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AG
trouble said:

Most restaurants that are asking that you wear one are asking that you wear it until your food arrives and if you need to call your server over for anything.


Thanks, in your opinion as someone who worked in the medical field do you think masks prior to a meal would make any difference?
trouble
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AG
Eh, not really. If you are positive, you are likely going to spread it while eating.

So, stay home if you have any symptoms, are in a high risk category, or have close contact with someone in a high risk category.

I do think servers should be wearing them.
Belton Ag
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trouble said:

Eh, not really. If you are positive, you are likely going to spread it while eating.

So, stay home if you have any symptoms, are in a high risk category, or have close contact with someone in a high risk category.

I do think servers should be wearing them.


That's exactly what I thought, but am always looking to better understand. Thanks.
nought
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cavscout96 said:

so, two very significant bumps, and, right now, the PR is about "normal" at 5-6%

I suck at graphs from Spread Sheets, do these bumps, generally, coincide with Memorial Day and the height of the recent protests?

OR

Are we dramatically increasing testing due to better contact tracing, where before we were only testing those "most likely" to actually return a positive result since we had limited testing capacity?




Looking at the data, there has been a dramatic increase in testing over the last two weeks as they have finally started contact-tracing.

One would expect much higher rates of infection among contacts of a positive case, and that's exactly what we're seeing.

A few weeks ago, people had to beg to be tested. If they didn't have exactly the right symptoms, or their symptoms weren't severe enough, they were told to simply go home and wait it out without being permitted to take a test.

That has changed, so it isn't surprising that there are much higher numbers now that we're actually testing people (and finally testing contacts of known-positive cases).

Yes, this thing still grows exponentially, but the rate at which it is spreading isn't as high as the doom-and-gloomers would like you to believe.
AggieBarstool
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nought said:

cavscout96 said:

so, two very significant bumps, and, right now, the PR is about "normal" at 5-6%

I suck at graphs from Spread Sheets, do these bumps, generally, coincide with Memorial Day and the height of the recent protests?

OR

Are we dramatically increasing testing due to better contact tracing, where before we were only testing those "most likely" to actually return a positive result since we had limited testing capacity?




Looking at the data, there has been a dramatic increase in testing over the last two weeks as they have finally started contact-tracing.

One would expect much higher rates of infection among contacts of a positive case, and that's exactly what we're seeing.

A few weeks ago, people had to beg to be tested. If they didn't have exactly the right symptoms, or their symptoms weren't severe enough, they were told to simply go home and wait it out without being permitted to take a test.

That has changed, so it isn't surprising that there are much higher numbers now that we're actually testing people (and finally testing contacts of known-positive cases).


Yes, this thing still grows exponentially, but the rate at which it is spreading isn't as high as the doom-and-gloomers would like you to believe.
Not a damned thing has changed.

One of my direct reports self-reported "COVID-like" symptoms (later tested negative). Testing centers didn't want anything to do with testing me even though I mentioned having had close contact with someone who was presumed positive.
ToxicAG
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The testing and positivity rate are going to fluctuate as mentioned due to contact tracing etc. However, the more appropriate measure is hosptilization and ICU capacity. In Houston, it is being reported that the Texas Medical Center is approaching capacity, with over 97% of the ICU beds full. This includes COVID and non-COVID patients. The normal rate is 70-80-%, so it is nearing the normal capacity. Of course there is the ability to expand, but it also indicates that there is a surge in the number in the hospital and this is likely to lead to an increase in deaths as stated by Dr. Fauci during testimony to congress yesterday.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-hospital-icus-crowded-with-covid-19-patients-as-coronavirus-continues-to-spread/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680


trouble
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AG
It's only 27% Covid patients and only the med center not all of Houston.

Fitch
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AG


ToxicAG
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In the article is states that other hospitals around Houston are having similar concerns with ICU capacity. Also, "only" 27% on top of normal ICU occupancy is significant, since the number of COVID patients (ICU and non-ICU) are growing at a rate of 5.6% over the last 7 days. If it continues at this rate, the Texas Medical Center will exceed sustainable surge capacity in 12 days (July 6).

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-2-week-projection-using-bed-occupancy-growth/

trouble
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And they have room to adjust. They'll cancel elective procedures. They'll evaluate and discharge other patients.

These are things that hospitals regularly deal with. The media isn't usually paying attention to capacity though so no one else is aware.
saltydog13
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AG
Ah the classic 2 more weeks argument. You said a little over 2 weeks ago that they would be at capacity by now. With current numbers, it's magically 2 weeks away from capacity again
cavscout96
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saltydog13 said:

Ah the classic 2 more weeks argument. You said a little over 2 weeks ago that they would be at capacity by now. With current numbers, it's magically 2 weeks away from capacity again


To be fair he said 12 days this time... I guess we'll check back on the 4th and see if he was correct.
cavscout96
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AG
Dp
saltydog13
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AG
That's basically 2 weeks, but I agree
aggiepm
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AG
saltydog13 said:

Ah the classic 2 more weeks argument. You said a little over 2 weeks ago that they would be at capacity by now. With current numbers, it's magically 2 weeks away from capacity again
I mean... there was an important caveat there: "If it continues at this rate". If the rate decreases, then obviously, they wont be at capacity, but his statement still won't be wrong.
LSCSN
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Two or theee winters ago you couldn't get a hospital room because the flu was so bad. Nobody said a damn thing then.
1.618
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LSCSN said:

Two or theee winters ago you couldn't get a hospital room because the flu was so bad. Nobody said a damn thing then.
Was the flu that season so bad and hospital capacity so stressed that adult patients were rerouted to Texas Children's Hospital? I'll save you from having to look that up. No, it was not.

There is a vaccine for seasonal flu. Also, flu is seasonal so the numbers go up and down with seasons. Covid-19 has not yet shown that it will naturally go down when the weather warms up (see Texas' numbers for anecdotal evidence) Covid-19 appears to be more infectious than seasonal flu and more deadly.

In 5-10 years if there is no vaccine for covid-19 we will certainly be better at managing it but for now, we are still in learning mode. Let's hope and pray that we learn fast.

Edit to clarify: Covid-19 won't be news in a couple of years. It is newsworthy because it is "novel" but that novelty will wear off and eventually we will be much better at managing it. Today, it is not under control. If you are sick of hearing the media talk about it, wear your mask and social distance. Do your part to control the spread. There will be no news story when Texas has only 30 new cases and those are contact traced and controlled within days.
scd88
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AG
What time are numbers released?
Rapier108
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scd88 said:

What time are numbers released?
Whenever they feel like it.

Usually between 10-12, but I've seen it as early as 9:30 and as late as almost 3:00.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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AG
aggiepm said:

saltydog13 said:

Ah the classic 2 more weeks argument. You said a little over 2 weeks ago that they would be at capacity by now. With current numbers, it's magically 2 weeks away from capacity again
I mean... there was an important caveat there: "If it continues at this rate". If the rate decreases, then obviously, they wont be at capacity, but his statement still won't be wrong.
not the first time he's said this..... it's renewed ... about every two weeks.
cavscout96
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AG
1.618 said:

LSCSN said:

Two or theee winters ago you couldn't get a hospital room because the flu was so bad. Nobody said a damn thing then.
Was the flu that season so bad and hospital capacity so stressed that adult patients were rerouted to Texas Children's Hospital? I'll save you from having to look that up. No, it was not.

There is a vaccine for seasonal flu. Also, flu is seasonal so the numbers go up and down with seasons. Covid-19 has not yet shown that it will naturally go down when the weather warms up (see Texas' numbers for anecdotal evidence) Covid-19 appears to be more infectious than seasonal flu and more deadly.

In 5-10 years if there is no vaccine for covid-19 we will certainly be better at managing it but for now, we are still in learning mode. Let's hope and pray that we learn fast.

Edit to clarify: Covid-19 won't be news in a couple of years. It is newsworthy because it is "novel" but that novelty will wear off and eventually we will be much better at managing it. Today, it is not under control. If you are sick of hearing the media talk about it, wear your mask and social distance. Do your part to control the spread. There will be no news story when Texas has only 30 new cases and those are contact traced and controlled within days.
and they are not now either.

TCH is TESTING adults and has OFFERED space for adult patients.
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