B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

684,949 Views | 4780 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by trouble
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I will not be surprised if we have another suspension of elective procedures for a few weeks soon in BCS like Abbott just declared for the metros.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
scd88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good to know. Thanks. I've only recently started to lay really close attention to our numbers here.
Houston2AngeloAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I would argue outpatient procedures shouldn't be postponed only bigger surgeries requiring a post op hospital bed should be. Unless, of course, ppe becomes an issue
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
tb9665
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Starbucks on University Dr. is temporarily closed.
nought
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cook County in Illinois (basically Chicago) has 3 to 4 times the number of COVID-19 cases than Harris County, but isn't that much larger (roughly 5 million to 4 million). Why aren't the media sowing panic about the situation there? They also have far more deaths than Harris County.

Are there really that many more hospital beds in Cook County than Harris County that Houston can't handle a load 1/4 to 1/3rd as large? Or are there games and politics going on in the reporting drumbeat of doom and gloom about Texas?

Texas is 19th lowest when you rank states applying population correction to the number of cases in the states.

Texas is 10th lowest when you rank states applying population correction to the number of deaths.

You wouldn't know either of those numbers by listening to media, local or otherwise.
scd88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's because we "opened up." Media and political narrative.
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
scd88 said:

It's because we "opened up." Media and political narrative.


Bingo.
Bunk Moreland
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nought said:

Cook County in Illinois (basically Chicago) has 3 to 4 times the number of COVID-19 cases than Harris County, but isn't that much larger (roughly 5 million to 4 million). Why aren't the media sowing panic about the situation there? They also have far more deaths than Harris County.

Are there really that many more hospital beds in Cook County than Harris County that Houston can't handle a load 1/4 to 1/3rd as large? Or are there games and politics going on in the reporting drumbeat of doom and gloom about Texas?

Texas is 19th lowest when you rank states applying population correction to the number of cases in the states.

Texas is 10th lowest when you rank states applying population correction to the number of deaths.

You wouldn't know either of those numbers by listening to media, local or otherwise.

Harris County had 1,365 new positive cases yesterday. The entire state of Illinois had 715.

I'm not arguing to close it down but looking at aggregate totals over the last 3 months isn't going to get you to the answer of why the media is sowing panic about Harris county right now.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
116 new cases
1 new death
1027 new tests
28 in the hospital (+1)

77801 +9
77802 +12
77803 +37
77807 +5
77808 +5
77840 +26
77845 +22

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.25.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Death was a male in his 60s.

19 more recovered.
scd88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Not a good day.
lockett93
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

-1 in 90's (rounding issue?)
0 in 80's
1 in 70's
8 in 60's
12 in 50's
12 in 40's
25 in 30's
41 in 20's
12 in 15-19
4 in <15

4 Af. Am
52 Caucasian
62 Hispanic

49 male, 67 female

48 in CS zips
68 in Bryan zips
asoiaf
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Interesting that the positivity rate shows these cases going in the 6/13-6/19 date range.

I guess they are reporting results from that time frame and nothing in the last 6 days?
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Houston2AngeloAg said:

I would argue outpatient procedures shouldn't be postponed only bigger surgeries requiring a post op hospital bed should be. Unless, of course, ppe becomes an issue
I agree 100%- heck I don't think with our current low numbers in the hospital it is needed at all but if he shut down the metros I can see him looking at our positivity rate and per capita rate and shutting it down out of "an abundance of caution".
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Most cases are still in the young so that's something.

Also, a lot of businesses are testing all employees after they get one positive so we're finding asymptomatic cases that way.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
asoiaf said:

Interesting that the positivity rate shows these cases going in the 6/13-6/19 date range.

I guess they are reporting results from that time frame and nothing in the last 6 days?
Unfortunately, no way to tell when the positive cases reported today were actually tested. Some are probably recent, but others could be a week or more. Sullivan did mention at last week's press conference that test results from state labs can still take up to 2 weeks.

There is a major disconnect between number of new tests reported, and cases. Heck, some days (usually the weekend ) has 0 new tests, but still has cases. Unless they want to give a breakdown of which days and how many per day the daily tests numbers encompass, we can only guess.

The good thing is we're testing more and more, which is one reason we keep finding more cases. Two months ago we wouldn't have found most of these because the people are either not sick, or have a very mild case that they wouldn't even think of being tested. Now, because of contract tracing, these people are being tested.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Quote:

Also, a lot of businesses are testing all employees after they get one positive so we're finding asymptomatic cases that way.
Absolutely true.

Would be interesting to hear how many tests/cases are coming from that, but alas, even if the BCHD has that information, they won't share it, and our worthless local media won't ask.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
musicforall
How long do you want to ignore this user?
When Houston ICU beds fill up, will they be sent here? Just curious.
redd38
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good to see big numbers in 20s & 30s and low numbers over 60, along with low deaths. We're on the right path.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
musicforall said:

When Houston ICU beds fill up, will they be sent here? Just curious.
No they won't.

Brazos County already has to cover multiple surrounding counties.

Second, Houston is no where close to having its ICU beds full. The TMC is not the only hospital in Houston, but their numbers, which are no where near full (ICU is around 28% virus patients, the rest are for other things) but often reported as representing all of Houston, do not represent all of the hospitals outside of the TMC, and in surrounding areas.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
AggieYankee1
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rapier108 said:

musicforall said:

When Houston ICU beds fill up, will they be sent here? Just curious.
No they won't.

Brazos County already has to cover multiple surrounding counties.

Second, Houston is no where close to having its ICU beds full. The TMC is not the only hospital in Houston, but their numbers, which are no where near full (ICU is around 28% virus patients, the rest are for other things) but often reported as representing all of Houston, do not represent all of the hospitals outside of the TMC, and in surrounding areas.


Glad you are not - 'the powers that be' or else 10,000 cases a day and rising along with deaths would be nothing but the 'flu'.
Safe and sound behind the keyboard where nothing can hurt you.

**
That people are dismissing a serious health crisis because they are safe and sound and not actually at risk. Some for political reason (fake news) some because they like to be contrarian for no other reason than they do have to call themselves 'sheep'.

But facts are facts - you throw something in the air and it falls - you spread COVID thinking it is meaningless and a health care system gets overwhelmed and surgery's have to get shut down causing further knock on effects.

This is serious and those that deny it are - the fake news
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
You have no idea who he is or what he does.

Your attitude is really not suited to this board. We attempt to disagree civilly.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The vast majority of ICU beds in Houston and Harris County are in the Texas Medical Center. There are 1,330 in the TMC. Harris County has 1,622 total. I'm not sure what your point is since today the TMC is at 97% ICU beds full. One must assume the remaining 300 ICU beds are nearing that number.
scd88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AggieYankee1 said:

Rapier108 said:

musicforall said:

When Houston ICU beds fill up, will they be sent here? Just curious.
No they won't.

Brazos County already has to cover multiple surrounding counties.

Second, Houston is no where close to having its ICU beds full. The TMC is not the only hospital in Houston, but their numbers, which are no where near full (ICU is around 28% virus patients, the rest are for other things) but often reported as representing all of Houston, do not represent all of the hospitals outside of the TMC, and in surrounding areas.


Glad you are not - 'the powers that be' or else 10,000 cases a day and rising along with deaths would be nothing but the 'flu'.
Safe and sound behind the keyboard where nothing can hurt you.


I need a decoder ring to understand this. What are trying to say?
scd88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
How many flex beds do they have and are they being used?
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
scd88 said:

How many flex beds do they have and are they being used?
According to their plan that is posted online, they could expand to 2,207. I wonder if hospitals outside the TMC have that same capability?
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
But the hospitals in TMC could have helped themselves by limiting elective procedures before they got that full.

Only 27% of those ICU beds have Covid patients.
scd88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I am sure there are flex beds outside the TMC; it's just a matter of how many. Even that 585 is a big number - offers a lot of margin to work with.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
trouble said:

But the hospitals in TMC could have helped themselves by limiting elective procedures before they got that full.

Only 27% of those ICU beds have Covid patients.
You're the medical professional here, I only work in the biopharmaceutical world. People in the ICU are there because of elective procedures? Or heart attacks, strokes, accidents, etc.? Trying to understand because this ain't my world.

But, a full ICU is still full, with limits on where new patients can go, right?
ToxicAG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
There is also staffing issues, since an ICU patient takes more care than normal patients.
Ribbed Paultz
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Where are you getting that statistic of only 27% of ICU patients are COVID-19 patients in the TMC?

If true, that is stunning to me. Normally ICUs are not busy in the summer. So if not COVID-19 patients, why are the ICUs so full?
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
75AG said:

trouble said:

But the hospitals in TMC could have helped themselves by limiting elective procedures before they got that full.

Only 27% of those ICU beds have Covid patients.
You're the medical professional here, I only work in the biopharmaceutical world. People in the ICU are there because of elective procedures? Or heart attacks, strokes, accidents, etc.? Trying to understand because this ain't my world.

But, a full ICU is still full, with limits on where new patients can go, right?


All of that. No one has given a breakdown beyond 70% non Covid, 27% Covid. It is and it's not. There are ways to increase of beds outside of the ICU. It's a pain though.

It's easier to reevaluate ICU patients and see who doesn't still need that level of care and also cancel elective and non emergency procedures that would require ICU post op.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ribbed Paultz said:

Where are you getting that statistic of only 27% of ICU patients are COVID-19 patients in the TMC?

If true, that is stunning to me. Normally ICUs are not busy in the summer. So if not COVID-19 patients, why are the ICUs so full?
That data is on the TMC website. [url]https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-icu-bed-capacity-modeling/[/url]
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It was in the khou article from yesterday.
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And that's not always true.

Brack ICU was slammed in the summer from trauma.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.