B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

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1.618
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10:38p, 5/5/20
Personally, I find it interesting that people think Blue Bell leadership should be held to account for letting tainted product out of the factory and into schools and hospitals and homes that they knew had the potential to harm some people and kill some people....but think it is absurd to continue social distancing and wearing masks and other things that have been proven effective in slowing a pandemic.

I think that unless you know people in Italy or in New York that are losing family members without benefit of being able to say goodbye and hold funerals to properly mourn their loved ones, it is easy enough to think it won't happen to you. I am in the minority but my haircut is not more important than the life of your parent or grandparent. And it is certainly not more important than the life of *my* parents or my grandparents.
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dubi
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In reply to 1.618 • 2:38a, 5/6/20
AG
Luckily our hospitals are so empty you can hear a pin drop.

So we won't have to withhold a vent from granny anytime soon.
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BQ_90
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8:41a, 5/6/20
AG
Frankly I'm shocked we still have people trying to compare BCS to Italy or NYC.
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benchmark
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In reply to KidDoc • 9:17a, 5/6/20
AG
KidDoc said:
So you are ok with a 10% death rate?

You are welcome to move to Sweden if you want.
Actually 12% ... but that's somewhat misleading because the denominator is confirmed tests. Sweden's deaths/1M isn't that different than (say) Netherlands. IMO, the biggest problem with Sweden is they failed to protect their nursing homes sufficiently..

To me, that's the most important takeaway from all the Covid policies/restrictions worldwide including the US ... not throwing the kitchen sink at resources and lockdown/quarantine policies aimed at protecting nursing homes and elderly living facilities.

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1.618
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9:22a, 5/6/20
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
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BQ_90
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In reply to 1.618 • 9:25a, 5/6/20
AG
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
far less than live in NYC. If you are scared, don't go out. You control that all on your own. If you don't like that, pack up and move to a safe zone like NYC
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benchmark
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In reply to 1.618 • 9:38a, 5/6/20
AG
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
My 2 cents FWIW ... if I were over 60 or otherwise high-risk, I would be extremely cautious.
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Rapier108
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10:23a, 5/6/20
13 more cases
No deaths
0 new test results (How can you have more cases with no new results?)
1 more in the hospital

77801 +4
77803 +6
77840 +1
77845 +2

Looks like all, or almost all, of the cases are in the Hispanic community.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.6.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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trouble
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:48a, 5/6/20
AG
It seems they are adding the tests when they are conducted, not when they get results.

At least that's what I understand from the answer they've given here. https://www.facebook.com/143541772383408/posts/3677717532299130/
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isitjustme
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:58a, 5/6/20
AG
Rapier108 said:
13 more cases
No deaths
0 new test results (How can you have more cases with no new results?)
1 more in the hospital

77801 +4
77803 +6
77840 +1
77845 +2

Looks like all, or almost all, of the cases are in the Hispanic community.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.6.20.pdf
Not good, even if they are clustered in a community, in this case, the Hispanic community. Whether the Hispanic community or an assisted living community or the student community or whatever is the main impacted community, 2 days of double digit reported cases is not good. Not for the impacted community b/c who wants cv19, and not for the population at large b/c our precarious economic restart could be reversed. That's why we still need to keep our distance from each other when practical but not overreact. These are most likely from tests taken before the impacts of the May 1 partial economic restart took effect, so that should be kept in mind also.
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FlyRod
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11:04a, 5/6/20
Somewhere I read that the time to show symptoms after getting infected has shortened considerably. No idea if this is the case, but if so could explain why we're seeing more cases. Will try to find link to that report.
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nthomas99
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In reply to isitjustme • 11:07a, 5/6/20
AG
agrab86 said:
Rapier108 said:
13 more cases
No deaths
0 new test results (How can you have more cases with no new results?)
1 more in the hospital

77801 +4
77803 +6
77840 +1
77845 +2

Looks like all, or almost all, of the cases are in the Hispanic community.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.6.20.pdf
Not good, even if they are clustered in a community, in this case, the Hispanic community. Whether the Hispanic community or an assisted living community or the student community or whatever is the main impacted community, 2 days of double digit reported cases is not good. Not for the impacted community b/c who wants cv19, and not for the population at large b/c our precarious economic restart could be reversed. That's why we still need to keep our distance from each other when practical but not overreact. These are most likely from tests taken before the impacts of the May 1 partial economic restart took effect, so that should be kept in mind also.

Of course clusters are bad and need to be addressed.

But taken within the context of no new tests and previous days being 0 and 1, respectively. The most likely thing is that some lab delayed reporting and we're sitting at the same 5-6ish cases a day we've been tracking at for some time. So I wouldn't say it's "not good", but rather the same trend we've been seeing all along.

And yes, we'll uptick in cases soon I'm sure as the effects of the restart can be empirically observed (as well as hopefully more testing). But this isn't what matters. What matters is the critical cases requiring hospitalizations. I suspect these as a percentage of confirmed cases will track downwards notably.
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isitjustme
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In reply to nthomas99 • 11:13a, 5/6/20
AG
Agree with you in total. I'm more concerned about how policy makers react to consecutive double digit cases, not the population at large. Mayors, others could try and roll back some of the reopening steps or at the very least scare more people into staying home.
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dubi
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11:15a, 5/6/20
AG
The number of cases does not bother me if they are in the younger age groups. They are getting out and developing herd immunity which is what we want!

Geriatrics need to be sequestered no matter the ethnicity to protect them.
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88planoAg
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In reply to FlyRod • 11:23a, 5/6/20
AG
FlyRod said:
Somewhere I read that the time to show symptoms after getting infected has shortened considerably. No idea if this is the case, but if so could explain why we're seeing more cases. Will try to find link to that report.
Average time is 5 days, but can be as long as 14. I believe that is the latest info.
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KidDoc
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11:23a, 5/6/20
AG
My only concern with the clusters being in hispanic communities is that they have statistically higher rate of obesity, type 2 DM, and hypertension all of which are risk factors for severe COVID. Not as big a risk as age appears to be but still concerning. Similar to the higher rate seen in black populations in the north USA, many of these are likely people who unfortunately cannot work from home or cannot get paid time off so they are at risk of exposure.



They just need to have good testing and contact tracing with specific patient quarantine to prevent explosive growth in the "hot spot".
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Rapier108
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In reply to isitjustme • 11:24a, 5/6/20
The governor's order doesn't allow them to shut down everything again.

Of course they've already demonstrated what they are willing to do, economics be damned.

The problem is they could very well order another shutdown/lock down/shelter in place (that should cover it all for those who want to play semantics) and tell the governor to F off. Mooney is probably looking for some legal way to do it right now.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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nthomas99
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In reply to 1.618 • 11:26a, 5/6/20
AG
1.618 said:
Personally, I find it interesting that people think Blue Bell leadership should be held to account for letting tainted product out of the factory and into schools and hospitals and homes that they knew had the potential to harm some people and kill some people....but think it is absurd to continue social distancing and wearing masks and other things that have been proven effective in slowing a pandemic.

I think that unless you know people in Italy or in New York that are losing family members without benefit of being able to say goodbye and hold funerals to properly mourn their loved ones, it is easy enough to think it won't happen to you. I am in the minority but my haircut is not more important than the life of your parent or grandparent. And it is certainly not more important than the life of *my* parents or my grandparents.

I lived in New York for a time and have friends and family there. And business colleagues in Milan (in the Lombardy red zone) have reached out to assure me the threat is real and warn me to take it seriously. When they tell me about the Italian military digging mass graves, trust me I take it very seriously. And I've seen friends even here in Texas having to mourn and comfort loved ones at a distance from deaths not even related to Covid (actually talked with one this morning walking through this). It's hard to see through online interactions, but I think very few educated/informed folks are treating this as "the flu" and not a big deal.

And I don't think it's fair to imply people don't care about parents and grandparents. Come on, believe the best of people and that they're acting in good faith, even if you don't agree with their actions.

Many of us simply observe a disconnect between the empirical data we have seen locally (over a long period of time) and what has been unfolding in those areas you mentioned. So if you see public health, personal freedom, and the industry/economy (that created the excess resources we have now as a nation to fight the disease) as all intertwined, then you rationally feel we should carefully move forward opening up, to be able to preserve the long term health of the vulnerable, both the generation before us and the generation that comes after.

What I don't hear often from those who think we're moving too fast is an alternative. If you've accepted the fact that we can't contain this virus and are willing to agree that a sustained suspension of rights and economy for the possibility of vaccine 18 months out isn't feasible.... Well, if not now, when? What metrics are we missing that we should have?

Personally, I felt the governor's presser yesterday showed he's acting very rationally. Fine, argue he should move faster or slower (based on where you fall in this debate), but the mental framework he's applying to the process seems about right.

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KidDoc
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In reply to isitjustme • 11:30a, 5/6/20
AG
agrab86 said:
Agree with you in total. I'm more concerned about how policy makers react to consecutive double digit cases, not the population at large. Mayors, others could try and roll back some of the reopening steps or at the very least scare more people into staying home.
Yeah maybe they will close Lick Creek again. I'm sure all the new cases are being contacted on miles of outdoor walking trails.
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trouble
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In reply to KidDoc • 11:48a, 5/6/20
AG
Only on days you're not working
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cavscout96
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In reply to benchmark • 12:12p, 5/6/20
AG
benchmark said:
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
My 2 cents FWIW ... if I were over 60 or otherwise high-risk, I would be extremely cautious.
prudent, but hardly the "one-size-fits-all" that many advocate, Good on you.
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cavscout96
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In reply to 1.618 • 12:12p, 5/6/20
AG
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
practically all of them
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cavscout96
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In reply to isitjustme • 12:14p, 5/6/20
AG
increased infections are inevitable. overreacting isn't.
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cavscout96
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In reply to Rapier108 • 12:16p, 5/6/20
AG
Rapier108 said:
The governor's order doesn't allow them to shut down everything again.

Of course they've already demonstrated what they are willing to do, economics be damned.

The problem is they could very well order another shutdown/lock down/shelter in place (that should cover it all for those who want to play semantics) and tell the governor to F off. Mooney is probably looking for some legal way to do it right now.
you forgot "stay at home."
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BluHorseShu
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In reply to BQ_90 • 12:27p, 5/6/20
AG
BQ_90 said:
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
far less than live in NYC. If you are scared, don't go out. You control that all on your own. If you don't like that, pack up and move to a safe zone like NYC
Why do people keep using the term 'scared' instead of just considering that those people are acting on what they perceive to be common sense? Why are the only options stay home or move? And why are you the arbiter of what it appropriate for any individual?
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BQ_90
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In reply to BluHorseShu • 12:34p, 5/6/20
AG
BluHorseShu said:
BQ_90 said:
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
far less than live in NYC. If you are scared, don't go out. You control that all on your own. If you don't like that, pack up and move to a safe zone like NYC
Why do people keep using the term 'scared' instead of just considering that those people are acting on what they perceive to be common sense? Why are the only options stay home or move? And why are you the arbiter of what it appropriate for any individual?
same reason why if I don't do exactly what YOU WANT, I want to kill people. ]

I don't care what you do. How about you do the same with me. Deal?
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BluHorseShu
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In reply to BQ_90 • 4:03p, 5/6/20
AG
BQ_90 said:
BluHorseShu said:
BQ_90 said:
1.618 said:
So BQ_90, go ahead and school me on how many people live and work within 3 miles of the MSC on campus and the number of ICU beds avail locally.
far less than live in NYC. If you are scared, don't go out. You control that all on your own. If you don't like that, pack up and move to a safe zone like NYC
Why do people keep using the term 'scared' instead of just considering that those people are acting on what they perceive to be common sense? Why are the only options stay home or move? And why are you the arbiter of what it appropriate for any individual?
same reason why if I don't do exactly what YOU WANT, I want to kill people. ]

I don't care what you do. How about you do the same with me. Deal?
That is exactly my point. Thanks for understanding..
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laavispa
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In reply to nthomas99 • 4:13p, 5/6/20
Good post.

Through extended family know of several cases in NY/NJ and Harris County with fatalities, cases in Tarrant County recovered.

One of the metrics available from Texas Health folk is available beds, ICU beds and vents by 'trauma district.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

BCS is grouped in district 'N'. And of this date we have 13 ICU beds available and 49 vents available. This is to cover not only COVID patients but any other medical emergency requiring ICU/vent treatment. TSA covers Washington, Brazos, Madison, Grimes and Robertson Counties with an estimated population of +361K.

A point to remember about assets.

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cavscout96
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In reply to laavispa • 4:51p, 5/6/20
AG
laavispa said:
Good post.

Through extended family know of several cases in NY/NJ and Harris County with fatalities, cases in Tarrant County recovered.

One of the metrics available from Texas Health folk is available beds, ICU beds and vents by 'trauma district.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

BCS is grouped in district 'N'. And of this date we have 13 ICU beds available and 49 vents available. This is to cover not only COVID patients but any other medical emergency requiring ICU/vent treatment. TSA covers Washington, Brazos, Madison, Grimes and Robertson Counties with an estimated population of +361K.

A point to remember about assets.

I mean, if we're going to play "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon," I'm sure I "know of" some fatalities as well.

Contrary to what the dashboard portrays, both local health systems have consistently reported in news conferences multiple dozens, or hundreds, of available beds. I'm not sure they specified ICU in the reports I listened to, but they aren't, and I don't recall ever hearing, any bed shortage concerns since we started seeing the actual scope of the virus' presence in the BV.
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laavispa
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5:22p, 5/6/20
Yep, Dashboard says we have 44% of 538 staffed beds available in this trauma district. AND only 19 COVIDS in hospital. Really a good number for the counties involved.

Then I only presented numbers of ICU/vents, something the local folks fail to mention, except in their reports to state.

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dubi
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In reply to laavispa • 5:45p, 5/6/20
AG
Quote:
Then I only presented numbers of ICU/vents, something the local folks fail to mention, except in their reports to state.
The stepdown unit at St Joe's has vents and can double their ICU capacity instantly.
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nthomas99
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In reply to laavispa • 9:05p, 5/6/20
AG
laavispa said:
Good post.



One of the metrics available from Texas Health folk is available beds, ICU beds and vents by 'trauma district.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

BCS is grouped in district 'N'. And of this date we have 13 ICU beds available and 49 vents available. This is to cover not only COVID patients but any other medical emergency requiring ICU/vent treatment. TSA covers Washington, Brazos, Madison, Grimes and Robertson Counties with an estimated population of +361K.

A point to remember about assets.


Thanks and this is a good data source. I do recall at one of the Brazos Health pressers a couple weeks ago it being mentioned having a ventilator capacity above 100 (136 or something around there), but they may have been with splitting them + ventilator-like devices.

In any case, I agree whatever the capacity is, making sure we stay a very healthy margin below this is the key in this whole thing, along with better strategies for protecting the vulnerable, high-risk population groups.
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dubi
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In reply to nthomas99 • 9:13p, 5/6/20
AG
And there are plenty of vent ICU beds in Houston, Austin, Dallas.

Patients can be moved.
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nthomas99
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In reply to dubi • 9:22p, 5/6/20
AG
dubi said:
And there are plenty of vent ICU beds in Houston, Austin, Dallas.

Patients can be moved.

Yes, but not if it hits the fan everywhere at the same time .

That said, I think the pace at which the Governor is moving gives plenty of room to observe and course correct an admittedly huge boat well before we get there though, at least here Brazos county, but that's just the opinion of a somewhat informed / educated observer of public information.
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KidDoc
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In reply to nthomas99 • 12:16a, 5/7/20
AG
nthomas99 said:
laavispa said:
Good post.



One of the metrics available from Texas Health folk is available beds, ICU beds and vents by 'trauma district.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

BCS is grouped in district 'N'. And of this date we have 13 ICU beds available and 49 vents available. This is to cover not only COVID patients but any other medical emergency requiring ICU/vent treatment. TSA covers Washington, Brazos, Madison, Grimes and Robertson Counties with an estimated population of +361K.

A point to remember about assets.


Thanks and this is a good data source. I do recall at one of the Brazos Health pressers a couple weeks ago it being mentioned having a ventilator capacity above 100 (136 or something around there), but they may have been with splitting them + ventilator-like devices.

In any case, I agree whatever the capacity is, making sure we stay a very healthy margin below this is the key in this whole thing, along with better strategies for protecting the vulnerable, high-risk population groups.
Aside from CPAP what the hell is a vent-like device?

I haven't been in the PICU in a long time but not sure what that means.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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