B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

673,720 Views | 4711 Replies | Last: 9 hrs ago by Nosmo
Rapier108
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121 New Cases
755 New Tests
0 New Deaths
33 In The Hospital (+7 -3) (Assuming I read the ugly graphic correctly)

77801 +16
77802 +6
77803 +33
77807 +7
77808 +4
77840 +18
77845 +37

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.29.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Yes, 3 discharged.

Another 47 added to recovered.
MBAR
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We didn't really see a weekend drop. I hope that doesn't mean we're going to see a large increase the next couple of days.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

I added a daily change row at the top to show the difference between yesterday's and today's numbers.
AggieYankee1
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Staff gets me so confused... I have seen people openly calling liberals have a mental disease - they should be stacked like wood - and I can't wait to pop my lib neighbor in the Dome - and they get hall of fame blue stars -

I make one comment that is factual about people repeatedly calling Covid fake news - and it gets taken down.

My lord.

PS I can't wait to see those numbers when you add another 40,000 kids and open public's schools - with no masks etc.

How many 18-22 year olds can you fit in AG shacks .... 6-8? And there are hundreds of AG shacks.

God Bless our local nurses and Docs - They will need everything they can get

[We do our best to keep that to a minimum on this board and remove every post that we see while browsing or by flag notification. If you have seen posts like that on this board please let us know by using the voting function and we will review the post. Thank you. -Staff]
trouble
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We don't speak to each other that way on this board. It's never been allowed.

Again, none of us have called this fake news. You're bringing arguments from other threads and accusing us if having made them.
scd88
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MBAR said:

We didn't really see a weekend drop. I hope that doesn't mean we're going to see a large increase the next couple of days.


Yah, that's what I was thinking, too. Yikes.
JimInBCS
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Thanks for the regular posting of this info. I understand more testing, and more targeted testing, results in increased positives, but the number of new cases seems to be markedly increasing over the past week or two. Any idea at what level the number of hospitalizations begins to take on a heightened level of concern? I realize some help is on the way with elective procedures becoming limited again and possibly freeing up some beds.
trouble
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It's going to be more of an issue if ICU beds are what's taken up. We don't know how many are in ICU vs a regular bed because Sullivan won't disclose that.
dubi
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Quote:

I realize some help is on the way with elective procedures becoming limited again

Which hospital is once again limiting elective procedures in BCS?
Fitch
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RGRAg1/75
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AggieYankee1 said:

PS I can't wait to see those numbers when you add another 40,000 kids and open public's schools - with no masks etc.

How many 18-22 year olds can you fit in AG shacks .... 6-8? And there are hundreds of AG shacks.

God Bless our local nurses and Docs - They will need everything they can get

Like really can't wait? Hope the dark cloud you're projecting never forms over our community. Personally.
JimInBCS
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dubi said:

Quote:

I realize some help is on the way with elective procedures becoming limited again

Which hospital is once again limiting elective procedures in BCS?


My mistake as the Governor's order from the 25th is limited to Bexar, Dallas, Harris, and Travis counties. I'd think if the situation worsens in Brazos county it could be enacted here as well. My question, with the caveat added in the response above, has to do with the hospital bed (more specifically ICU bed) situation here. More specifically, how close are we to having an issue with capacity.
cavscout96
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lockett93 said:

Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

I added a daily change row at the top to show the difference between yesterday's and today's numbers.

Note: over 50% nearly half are in the 15-29 range.


edit - math in public.....
nought
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Something interesting to consider is what the compounding rate is of this exponential growth situation.

Let's imagine we had exponential growth at a steady rate of 10% a day. The spreadsheet being posted on this board starts with 4 cases. We would expect 10% more on day 2, so 4.4. Then 10% more an day 3, so 4.84. And so on.

What is the actual compounding rate? You take the total cases for a given day and divide by the starting number of cases, take the Nth root of that, and subtract 1. On the 10th day of recorded cases (so the count for day 11), there were 44 cases. What is the compound growth rate needed to get from 4 to 44 over 10 days? You take 44 divided by 4, which is 11. You take that to the power of .1 (because 10 days elapsed so we want to raise to the power of 1 over 10. That gives us 1.27. We then subtract 1. We are at .27, which means that over the first 10 days of this oubreak locally, cases grew at a rate of 27% per day.

What is interesting is that in general, the compound growth rate has steadily declined. The most recent compound growth rate is "only" 6 and a quarter percent. That's way less than 27%. Of course, it is still concerning, because something growing at 6 and a quarter percent every day gets really big really fast.

However, what the local health officials and others are not telling you is that the rate of infection in our local community is indeed slowing down.

Here are my full calculations from day 2 until today, which is day 103:

Mar 20 2020 0.5000
Mar 21 2020 0.5811
Mar 22 2020 0.4422
Mar 23 2020 0.3161
Mar 24 2020 0.3195
Mar 25 2020 0.3183
Mar 26 2020 0.3205
Mar 27 2020 0.2917
Mar 28 2020 0.2915
Mar 29 2020 0.2710
Mar 30 2020 0.2486
Mar 31 2020 0.2403
Apr 01 2020 0.2362
Apr 02 2020 0.2243
Apr 03 2020 0.2125
Apr 04 2020 0.2011
Apr 05 2020 0.2041
Apr 06 2020 0.1917
Apr 07 2020 0.1827
Apr 08 2020 0.1791
Apr 09 2020 0.1729
Apr 10 2020 0.1654
Apr 11 2020 0.1649
Apr 12 2020 0.1597
Apr 13 2020 0.1538
Apr 14 2020 0.1493
Apr 15 2020 0.1439
Apr 16 2020 0.1403
Apr 17 2020 0.1366
Apr 18 2020 0.1329
Apr 19 2020 0.1286
Apr 20 2020 0.1243
Apr 21 2020 0.1209
Apr 22 2020 0.1179
Apr 23 2020 0.1144
Apr 24 2020 0.1117
Apr 25 2020 0.1085
Apr 26 2020 0.1057
Apr 27 2020 0.1028
Apr 28 2020 0.1010
Apr 29 2020 0.0992
Apr 30 2020 0.0972
May 01 2020 0.0955
May 02 2020 0.0940
May 03 2020 0.0918
May 04 2020 0.0898
May 05 2020 0.0889
May 06 2020 0.0883
May 07 2020 0.0874
May 08 2020 0.0867
May 09 2020 0.0857
May 10 2020 0.0845
May 11 2020 0.0833
May 12 2020 0.0823
May 13 2020 0.0817
May 14 2020 0.0805
May 15 2020 0.0794
May 16 2020 0.0784
May 17 2020 0.0774
May 18 2020 0.0765
May 19 2020 0.0756
May 20 2020 0.0754
May 21 2020 0.0746
May 22 2020 0.0739
May 23 2020 0.0748
May 24 2020 0.0737
May 25 2020 0.0727
May 26 2020 0.0717
May 27 2020 0.0710
May 28 2020 0.0702
May 29 2020 0.0694
May 30 2020 0.0687
May 31 2020 0.0679
Jun 01 2020 0.0670
Jun 02 2020 0.0665
Jun 03 2020 0.0661
Jun 04 2020 0.0656
Jun 05 2020 0.0655
Jun 06 2020 0.0656
Jun 07 2020 0.0652
Jun 08 2020 0.0645
Jun 09 2020 0.0643
Jun 10 2020 0.0639
Jun 11 2020 0.0636
Jun 12 2020 0.0630
Jun 13 2020 0.0632
Jun 14 2020 0.0628
Jun 15 2020 0.0624
Jun 16 2020 0.0625
Jun 17 2020 0.0636
Jun 18 2020 0.0636
Jun 19 2020 0.0636
Jun 20 2020 0.0635
Jun 21 2020 0.0630
Jun 22 2020 0.0624
Jun 23 2020 0.0621
Jun 24 2020 0.0621
Jun 25 2020 0.0623
Jun 26 2020 0.0625
Jun 27 2020 0.0625
Jun 28 2020 0.0625
Jun 29 2020 0.0625

You could multiply the numbers on the right by 100 to see them as percents. What is interesting is that the rate is showing a pretty steady decline despite increased tests, despite reopening, despite bars, despite protests, and despite Memorial Day weekend.
Oogway
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MBAR said:

We didn't really see a weekend drop. I hope that doesn't mean we're going to see a large increase the next couple of days.
Are some of the testing sites going back to specific symptom/rubrics for testing?

I'm hoping that everyone that needs a test can get one. It can enable folks to avoid others and hopefully keep it out of the nursing homes, etc.
toolshed
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Interesting...even with me not being a stats person!! Some of you really get into the numbers game! I know it's probably more a function of spreadsheets and simple inputs, but still. I know I am not that patient!

Oh, and the obligatory

Is Not a Turtle
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I'm looking for a nationwide dataset by county of cases, deaths, hospitalizations by date. Hopefully organized in a csv or an excel sheet.

If any of you have that let me know. I make maps so I want to do a time series from may 1 through today to try and see where the infections have popped up by census metropolitan area.

I think I know the answer but I would like to be able to illustrate it.

If you have access or that data in a table format please message me!
nought
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toolshed said:

Interesting...even with me not being a stats person!! Some of you really get into the numbers game! I know it's probably more a function of spreadsheets and simple inputs, but still. I know I am not that patient!
LOL You wouldn't (or maybe you would) believe how long it took me to come up with those.

I was hoping @lockett93 could somehow work his magic and add a column to his amazing spreadsheet.
nthomas99
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nought said:

Something interesting to consider is what the compounding rate is of this exponential growth situation.

Let's imagine we had exponential growth at a steady rate of 10% a day. The spreadsheet being posted on this board starts with 4 cases. We would expect 10% more on day 2, so 4.4. Then 10% more an day 3, so 4.84. And so on.

What is the actual compounding rate? You take the total cases for a given day and divide by the starting number of cases, take the Nth root of that, and subtract 1. On the 10th day of recorded cases (so the count for day 11), there were 44 cases. What is the compound growth rate needed to get from 4 to 44 over 10 days? You take 44 divided by 4, which is 11. You take that to the power of .1 (because 10 days elapsed so we want to raise to the power of 1 over 10. That gives us 1.27. We then subtract 1. We are at .27, which means that over the first 10 days of this oubreak locally, cases grew at a rate of 27% per day.

What is interesting is that in general, the compound growth rate has steadily declined. The most recent compound growth rate is "only" 6 and a quarter percent. That's way less than 27%. Of course, it is still concerning, because something growing at 6 and a quarter percent every day gets really big really fast.

However, what the local health officials and others are not telling you is that the rate of infection in our local community is indeed slowing down.

Here are my full calculations from day 2 until today, which is day 103:


You could multiply the numbers on the right by 100 to see them as percents. What is interesting is that the rate is showing a pretty steady decline despite increased tests, despite reopening, despite bars, despite protests, and despite Memorial Day weekend.

Interesting. One point of feedback is that it's hard to control for the changes in testing over that time (constrained in beginning, and then only testing most symptomatic, and now contract tracing galore). I can't wrap my mind around exactly how this would bias / change your results.

I know it's impossible, but it'd be interesting to see this analysis done with a time series of a large, fixed amount of testing performed in a uniform random manner.

But certainly a cool way to process the data.
nought
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nthomas99 said:


Interesting. One point of feedback is that it's hard to control for the changes in testing over that time (constrained in beginning, and then only testing most symptomatic, and now contract tracing galore). I can't wrap my mind around exactly how this would bias / change your results.

I know it's impossible, but it'd be interesting to see this analysis done with a time series of a large, fixed amount of testing performed in a uniform random manner.

But certainly a cool way to process the data.


You are absolutely right that this in no way reflects the changes in testing over time. However, to me, it is common sense that the increased testing capacity, and in particular, contact-tracing, would only lead us to discover more cases than we would have in the early days when people had to beg for tests and show lots of symptoms before being allowed to be tested.
SPI-FlatsCatter 84
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If that was a stock price report it would be the reason given TO SELL
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Slocum on a mobile
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A particular person I know who got tested last Thursday still has no results.

Anecdotal, but, it seems like it's taking longer for results.
Esteban du Plantier
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Slocum on a mobile said:

A particular person I know who got tested last Thursday still has no results.

Anecdotal, but, it seems like it's taking longer for results.


My family was tested on Wednesday.

I had a friend that got tested the same day and she called today and asked and they eventually gave her the results. So I called today and asked and they called me back with results.

It sounds like they're prioritizing delivering positive results and the negatives get backed up.
Bunk Moreland
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Know someone who got tested Thurs and they got the news of negative yesterday (Sunday) .
aggiegal99
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I know of someone who went to multiple testing places today but couldn't get tested because they didn't have a fever.

What's up with that?
Rapier108
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aggiegal99 said:

I know of someone who went to multiple testing places today but couldn't get tested because they didn't have a fever.

What's up with that?
Testing usually requires either some symptoms, or contact with a known positive case. They do have to do some amount of screening because every hypochondriac and many who have nothing but allergies would be looking to get tested over and over. I would guess medical personnel and first responders can get tested whenever they need to, for obvious reasons.

Everyone who I know who has gotten tested did it because of contact with confirmed cases except one and he ended up having another illness which had many of the same symptoms. Thankfully all tested negative and never got sick.

As for how long test results take, it all depends on where you go. Some places get results in 1-3 days; other can take a lot longer. Probably depends on which lab they use.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
MiMi
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S
Quote:

I know of someone who went to multiple testing places today but couldn't get tested because they didn't have a fever.

What's up with that?
This is ridiculous. I get that they want to conserve resources, but there are other symptoms that should qualify someone for a test. Not everyone has a fever.

From the CDC:
Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus. People with these symptoms may have COVID-19:
Fever or chills
Cough
Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
Fatigue
Muscle or body aches
Headache
New loss of taste or smell
Sore throat
Congestion or runny nose
Nausea or vomiting
Diarrhea
isitjustme
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MiMi said:

Quote:

I know of someone who went to multiple testing places today but couldn't get tested because they didn't have a fever.

What's up with that?
This is ridiculous. I get that they want to conserve resources, but there are other symptoms that should qualify someone for a test. Not everyone has a fever.

From the CDC:
Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus. People with these symptoms may have COVID-19:
Fever or chills
Cough
Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
Fatigue
Muscle or body aches
Headache
New loss of taste or smell
Sore throat
Congestion or runny nose
Nausea or vomiting
Diarrhea
There are other symptoms, but the symptom chart says 99% of those with symptoms have a fever. So if no fever, only 1% chance of having covid. The other thing is all the symptoms above also apply to about a zillion other illnesses and ailments. I don't know the answer, but there's got to be some way to triage the tests.

ETA the 99% fever stat seems to come from a Chinese study of covid patients needing hospitalization. Other stats I saw showed of those with symptoms, 80% had a fever.
cavscout96
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Esteban du Plantier said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

A particular person I know who got tested last Thursday still has no results.

Anecdotal, but, it seems like it's taking longer for results.


My family was tested on Wednesday.

I had a friend that got tested the same day and she called today and asked and they eventually gave her the results. So I called today and asked and they called me back with results.

It sounds like they're prioritizing delivering positive results and the negatives get backed up.


Not to go all tinfoil hat, but why?

That info is just as relevant, if properly correlated to the day of the test.

I guess it's easier to maintain the public anxiety, for lack of a better word, when the focus is on the small percentage of positive tests vs. the relatively large percentage of negative test.

EdP, glad y'all are negative.

trouble
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My guess is it's because some people won't self isolate until they know they are positive.
MiMi
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S
Quote:

ETA the 99% fever stat seems to come from a Chinese study of covid patients needing hospitalization. Other stats I saw showed of those with symptoms, 80% had a fever.
Exactly my point. We are still learning about this novel virus. By assuming only those with a fever are worthy of a test, we are missing potential positive cases. It fells like it's mid to late March again with this resistance to test those with symptoms. Back then, fever, cough and SOB were about the only symptoms that could qualify you for test. We now have a better understanding of the range of possible symptoms, yet many can't get tested.
new straw
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My guess is that it's more important to isolate if positive. I am a nurse and it took longer to get my negative than my coworkers positive. (Neither of us were allowed to return to work) it may also be something so simple as positives come back faster.
KidDoc
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I know St Jo's is testing anyone. Many summer camps require a negative test if the kid is attending.

From the current data showing pre-teens and younger don't spread it I think this is a silly requirement. For teens I think it is reasonable.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
cavscout96
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trouble said:

My guess is it's because some people won't self isolate until they know they are positive.
makes sense. get the sick isolated sooner.
 
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