B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

609,206 Views | 4442 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by MiMi
momlaw
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I have been trending Brazos County reports.
Average number reported positive by day seems to have a pattern.
March 17-24 grew and bounced from 1/day to 2.day.
March 25-27 was 2.3-2.8
March 28-April 4 progressed, held in 3.3-3.9 range
April 4-8 bounced up to 4.7 trending down to 4.4/5

When out in community sensing increased awareness of need to respect distances and precautions.
Genuinely wanting positive trend so we can reignite the Aggieland community.
momlaw
nthomas99
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momlaw said:

I have been trending Brazos County reports.
Average number reported positive by day seems to have a pattern.
March 17-24 grew and bounced from 1/day to 2.day.
March 25-27 was 2.3-2.8
March 28-April 4 progressed, held in 3.3-3.9 range
April 4-8 bounced up to 4.7 trending down to 4.4/5

When out in community sensing increased awareness of need to respect distances and precautions.
Genuinely wanting positive trend so we can reignite the Aggieland community.

The problem with looking at confirmed cases without any context is that it's basically meaningless if testing is increasing. If they've increased testing commensurate with the increases, then there may not be any growth of the virus (not that I'm saying this is the case).

Also too, remember the end goal isn't to reduce the confirmed count as all experts agree most of us will eventually get it. Rather, we want to protect the most vulnerable among and keep hospitals from getting overrun. It's a little hard to call now as hospitalizations is a bit of a trailing indicator, but both the numbers so far and conversations I've had with friends who work at the hospitals here in town say we're not getting hit anywhere as hard as they had feared would be the case (hospitalizations are actually down the last two days, and they won't say it but a lot of the early ones were probably from waterford).
Tookieclothespin
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I haven't seen the health department report active cases, only total. I've been irritated they aren't reporting it. Probably because the number isn't as scary.

I've been doing the math to figure active every day so I appreciate how you put it in your chart so we can see progression.
Rapier108
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Quote:

BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - Brazos County health officials reported a ninth person has died from COVID-19 in the county.

The latest death was a woman in her 80s who was in hospice care.

Six more positive cases were confirmed. This brings the total to 114. There are 79 active cases.

Twenty-six patients have recovered from the virus. 1,900 tests have been performed in the county.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/9th-COVID-19-death-reported-6-more-positive-cases-in-Brazos-County-569508221.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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Tookieclothespin said:

I haven't seen the health department report active cases, only total. I've been irritated they aren't reporting it. Probably because the number isn't as scary.

I've been doing the math to figure active every day so I appreciate how you put it in your chart so we can see progression.

The graphic they put on social media has total recovered, so you calculate the active. Also, they've now tested 1900 people.



If you smooth the irregularity (probably caused just by nature of reporting) where we had 19 one day, followed by 0 and then 3 the following days, the slope of that line from 3/26 on looks pretty flat. Which given that we're testing a higher rate, may mean the real spread is even slower.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.9.20.docx.pdf

Curious to hear what they have to say at the presser. Last time, their model was predicting an uptick in cases. Where would this come from? When would we expect see it? Admittedly we don't have all the data, but I'm just not seeing it.

02skiag
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I felt like Dr Sullivan was more informative today. He confirmed that they are not allowed to give any cluster details related to residential. They can only do so regarding businesses, such as Sanderson farms. If I recall, he said around 45% of cases are from clusters.
Rapier108
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02skiag said:

I felt like Dr Sullivan was more informative today. He confirmed that they are not allowed to give any cluster details related to residential. They can only do so regarding businesses, such as Sanderson farms. If I recall, he said around 45% of cases are from clusters.
They could say "X number" or "X percentage" are from residential clusters which won't ID anyone or any location.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
samsal75
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Rapier108 said:

02skiag said:

I felt like Dr Sullivan was more informative today. He confirmed that they are not allowed to give any cluster details related to residential. They can only do so regarding businesses, such as Sanderson farms. If I recall, he said around 45% of cases are from clusters.
They could say "X number" or "X percentage" are from residential clusters which won't ID anyone or any location.

How is it we were told that 'x' number of people died or were infected from a nursing home in Seattle area but we can't be told how many of the deaths were from a single nursing home in College Station?? Seems a little strange to me??
Rapier108
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samsal75 said:

Rapier108 said:

02skiag said:

I felt like Dr Sullivan was more informative today. He confirmed that they are not allowed to give any cluster details related to residential. They can only do so regarding businesses, such as Sanderson farms. If I recall, he said around 45% of cases are from clusters.
They could say "X number" or "X percentage" are from residential clusters which won't ID anyone or any location.

How is it we were told that 'x' number of people died or were infected from a nursing home in Seattle area but we can't be told how many of the deaths were from a single nursing home in College Station?? Seems a little strange to me??
It makes no sense. The only reason they even admitted The Waterford was because families started going to the media about it.

Sullivan, just like Fauci, seems to be way too attached to rules, regulation, and doing things "like we've alwayd done it." Heck, he was pretty much saying hydroxychloroquine is worthless.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lost my dog
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Rapier108 said:

samsal75 said:

Rapier108 said:

02skiag said:

I felt like Dr Sullivan was more informative today. He confirmed that they are not allowed to give any cluster details related to residential. They can only do so regarding businesses, such as Sanderson farms. If I recall, he said around 45% of cases are from clusters.
They could say "X number" or "X percentage" are from residential clusters which won't ID anyone or any location.

How is it we were told that 'x' number of people died or were infected from a nursing home in Seattle area but we can't be told how many of the deaths were from a single nursing home in College Station?? Seems a little strange to me??
It makes no sense. The only reason they even admitted The Waterford was because families started going to the media about it.

Sullivan, just like Fauci, seems to be way too attached to rules, regulation, and doing things "like we've alwayd done it." Heck, he was pretty much saying hydroxychloroquine is worthless.

I agree he is too afraid of a HIPAA lawsuit to give out details which would be helpful to the community. But he was pretty straight-forward about hydroxychloroquine. It's impossible to tell if it makes any difference given the lack of real studies.
Rapier108
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Nothing in HIPAA prevents them from telling us that "X number of community spread cases are due to family/roommate connections" since it does not identify anyone, nor give out any personal information. They should have also been telling people the places the cases have been. Hays County, among others, has been doing that.

No one has ever asked for them to give out names and addresses of people.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
b0ridi
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Today's numbers: two additional cases and 250 additional tests performed
happyinBCS
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Is it correct you have to show symptoms to take the test? If so this number is extremely low
Rexter
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happyinBCS said:

Is it correct you have to show symptoms to take the test? If so this number is extremely low


Yup. If you show symptoms, you still have to "look sick" to the nurse to get a test.
happyinBCS
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so out of 250 sick people we have 2 that have "The Virus" and we shut the whole country down, it is going to be interesting to see how History records this
b0ridi
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happyinBCS said:

so out of 250 sick people we have 2 that have "The Virus" and we shut the whole country down, it is going to be interesting to see how History records this
To be fair, it is possible that the 250 tests performed came from a different day (or different days) than the two positive results. Don't have enough detail in the data to figure that out.
histag10
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happyinBCS said:

Is it correct you have to show symptoms to take the test? If so this number is extremely low


Husbands coworker had to get tested. Is not sick and does not appear sick. His wife (also an essential employee) was notified she was in direct contact with someone with the virus and her whole family was told they needed to be tested.

From what I was told, they called their primary, who said they dont test and to go to urgent care, who said they dont test and to go to the hospital, where S&W said they wouldnt test them unless they were admitted or referred by their PCP who must be a S&W physician and told them they should try an ER, where they were finally tested after having to pay ER copays.
Rexter
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My wife presented with 3 or 4 symptoms. Her GP said go get tested. She went to St Joseph for that. The first person told her to move up for a test, and the second person told her "You don't look sick so we aren't going to test you."

No one knows the infection rate. Let's say it is 10x more than the known rate. If so, then the death rate drops by the corresponding factor.
happyinBCS
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What a nightmare
CS78
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I had a couple symptoms, my wife had a couple symptoms at the same time. Between us, we had it all. Couldn't get tested.
EBrazosAg
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Rexter said:

My wife presented with 3 or 4 symptoms. Her GP said go get tested. She went to St Joseph for that. The first person told her to move up for a test, and the second person told her "You don't look sick so we aren't going to test you."

No one knows the infection rate. Let's say it is 10x more than the known rate. If so, then the death rate drops by the corresponding factor.


All correct. But understand that of the people getting tested- and those are all meeting screening criteria or direct exposures of positive test - the positive rate is 5%. Assume the 30% false negative rate that appears to be present , the Positive Prediction Value of meeting testing criteria is only 7%. So it's much more likely you didn't have it than you did....even if you met testing criteria but weren't tested.
Ribbed Paultz
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So much for a positive trend. There were 18 new cases after just two yesterday. This is starting to feel endless.
nthomas99
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Ribbed Paultz said:

So much for a positive trend. There were 18 new cases after just two yesterday. This is starting to feel endless.

I suspect this is an artifact of some hospital's or clinic's reporting (or testing) lag, as there was a similar uptick last weekend, followed by a relatively flat week. However, it will certainly be worth watching if we have a few consecutive days of higher cases.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.11.20.pdf
Rapier108
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Yep, we seem to have these random spikes which makes no real sense unless there is a backlog of tests being cleared.

If one looks at other cities/counties around the country, most do not have steady numbers or rate of increase with a sudden spike which then drops back down to the level/rate before. Either the numbers grow at a roughly linear rate, with some amount of normal up and down, or if there is a spike, the following days do not drop back down.

Perhaps there is one lab being used by one or more local facilities which is running slower than others.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
EBrazosAg
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My understanding is that the labs turn adequate samples quick but batch "amplify" for inadequate samples. So when a amplified batch is released there is a spike. Because it has several days worth of "inadequate " samples in in it.
Rapier108
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3 cases reported today, and 1 death, another woman in her 80s who was on hospice care.

Let's see if they tell us at today's press conference if any of the recent deaths were from The Waterford.

Who am I kidding, they won't give out any useful information.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Carnwellag2
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Rapier108 said:

3 cases reported today, and 1 death, another woman in her 80s who was on hospice care.

Let's see if they tell us at today's press conference if any of the recent deaths were from The Waterford.

Who am I kidding, they won't give out any useful information.
don't we have any actual reporters in this Town? this should be the stuff they are asking.
aginlakeway
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Rapier108 said:

3 cases reported today, and 1 death, another woman in her 80s who was on hospice care.

Let's see if they tell us at today's press conference if any of the recent deaths were from The Waterford.

Who am I kidding, they won't give out any useful information.
So I need to be in CS Thursday afternoon. I'm not all that concerned ... but WTF is going on there?
Rapier108
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Quote:

don't we have any actual reporters in this Town? this should be the stuff they are asking.
Nope, and if you try to get them to, they'll get all pissy about it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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Rapier108 said:

3 cases reported today, and 1 death, another woman in her 80s who was on hospice care.

Let's see if they tell us at today's press conference if any of the recent deaths were from The Waterford.

Who am I kidding, they won't give out any useful information.
Have you seen the video they put out today explaining that "we like to err on the side of caution" when disclosing this information? I'm sorry, I know they're trying to be provide some context as to why, but the production quality and the optics of a young lady in her twenties bearing the weight of hipaa vs community health during a pandemic (not to mention 1st amendment rights) strikes me as a little tone deaf.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=9l_oA5kcORs&feature=emb_logo

This policy should be decided and addressed directly by the leaders in the press conference, not in a youtube video.
Rapier108
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aginlakeway said:

Rapier108 said:

3 cases reported today, and 1 death, another woman in her 80s who was on hospice care.

Let's see if they tell us at today's press conference if any of the recent deaths were from The Waterford.

Who am I kidding, they won't give out any useful information.
So I need to be in CS Thursday afternoon. I'm not all that concerned ... but WTF is going on there?
We have a heath department which refuses to give any information beyond numbers.

We have local officials who would love to go farther than any other county or state has done in terms of a lock down order, if they could get away with it.

We have a local media that is so in bed with the local officials that they will not dare question or challenge them.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
aginlakeway
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Rapier108 said:

aginlakeway said:

Rapier108 said:

3 cases reported today, and 1 death, another woman in her 80s who was on hospice care.

Let's see if they tell us at today's press conference if any of the recent deaths were from The Waterford.

Who am I kidding, they won't give out any useful information.
So I need to be in CS Thursday afternoon. I'm not all that concerned ... but WTF is going on there?
We have a heath department which refuses to give any information beyond numbers.

We have local officials who would love to go farther than any other county or state has done in terms of a lock down order, if they could get away with it.

We have a local media that is so in bed with the local officials that they will not dare question or challenge them.
I am safe there Thursday afternoon and maybe Thursday night?

One meeting planned ... with social distancing of course ... needs to be done in person.
Rapier108
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HIPAA is just the excuse they always use because no one will dare question it.

No one has asked for names, addresses, or identifying information. Heck, the only reason we know about The Waterford is families went public.

Seattle didn't cover up the deaths at that nursing home and reported on the number from their for about 6 weeks before finally rolling it into the overall daily numbers. 37 was the final report from there. Hays County gives out locations of where an infected person went (grocery store, hardware store, etc.) and what times they were there. If HIPAA prevented that, then we would have heard none of that information.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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I can't speak as a medical professional, but I would imagine keeping distance and if everyone wears a mask, the risk would be fairly low.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
aginlakeway
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AG
Rapier108 said:

I can't speak as a medical professional, but I would imagine keeping distance and if everyone wears a mask, the risk would be fairly low.
Meeting is with one person. It will probably be on his front porch!

Thanks!
 
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