B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

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Sleepnumber
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Aggie1205 said:

saray said:

Aggie1205 said:

Rapier, Cavscout, and Saray,

Question for yall that I'm interested in. If you were given full Czar powers of Brazos County and could implement the response to Corona starting now, what steps would you take immediately? For the purpose of this you can also assume you wouldn't be restricted by any state or national decrees. You have full power of Brazos County.

What would you open back up immediately? Would everything be freed back up or would you keep some restrictions? What information would you release to the public? What else would be part of your plan?
I'd open all small businesses (say 5 employees or less) at the discretion of the owner. These are the people who are being killed financially, who live month to month, and have little or no reserves. Examples would be an alteration shop, a shoe repair shop, etc. Customers could use them at their discretion and maintain social distancing.
Open all parks and allow children to play with one another in small groups---at their parents discretion.
Force elected leaders to take the lead----not well-meaning but myopic doctors.
On a national scale, we probably have 1000's of world-class statisticians and epidemiologists. Convene them ASAP and have them come up with more realistic consensus models and projections. Much of the publics concern has been brought about by worthless models that change every couple of days.
Open all churches. Configure for social distancing; but let people make a choice about whether they wish to go to church or not.

So only business's with less than 5 people? You mentioned that we are destroying the BV economy and tens of thousands of lives, would only opening up businesses of less than 5 people be enough?

Are churches banned by the government from being open? I'm on the email list for a few and all have voluntarily stopped meeting in person.

How do you force thousands of people to come up with a consensus model? Could one reason for the variance be that the data is constantly changing?
Rapier108
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It was the same press conference where Bill Oliver from WTAW said "Wuhan Style Lock Down". They said it a couple of minutes later when talking about what could happen if they had to impose additional restrictions.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
isitjustme
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saray said:

Aggie1205 said:

Rapier, Cavscout, and Saray,

Question for yall that I'm interested in. If you were given full Czar powers of Brazos County and could implement the response to Corona starting now, what steps would you take immediately? For the purpose of this you can also assume you wouldn't be restricted by any state or national decrees. You have full power of Brazos County.

What would you open back up immediately? Would everything be freed back up or would you keep some restrictions? What information would you release to the public? What else would be part of your plan?
A. I'd open all small businesses (say 5 employees or less) at the discretion of the owner. These are the people who are being killed financially, who live month to month, and have little or no reserves. Examples would be an alteration shop, a shoe repair shop, etc. Customers could use them at their discretion and maintain social distancing.
B. Open all parks and allow children to play with one another in small groups---at their parents discretion.
C. Force elected leaders to take the lead----not well-meaning but myopic doctors.
D. On a national scale, we probably have 1000's of world-class statisticians and epidemiologists. Convene them ASAP and have them come up with more realistic consensus models and projections. Much of the publics concern has been brought about by worthless models that change every couple of days.
E. Open all churches. Configure for social distancing; but let people make a choice about whether they wish to go to church or not.

I sympathize fully with the desire to get everything back open ASAP, and I do think there has been some overreaction.

But
A. why limit to 5 employees or less, why not 10 or 20? So long as social distancing guidelines are used, what's the difference how big the business is?
B. let kids play right next to each other with no distancing? Children can catch and spread viruses better than any known being on the face of this earth. I may be exaggerating, but not by much.
C. maybe elected leaders are taking the lead when it comes to making the decisions but they know the populace would prefer to take their medicine from a doctor. They're all just trying to keep the spread down, and we always tell them to get input from experts. Seems like the elected leaders are following CDC and Sullivan's advice, and maybe the info we haven't seen confirms their decisions (I'm not sure it would and I still think the elected leaders look a bit like they're looking for cover).
D. You're only Brazos Valley Czar, so good luck with that. But I do think at the national level they are getting this type of input, and that has led us to where we are today.
E. Most churches I've been to are already configured for social distancing. Just have family units stagger throughout the sanctuary - most can handle a bunch of worshippers with a 6-feet separation. If a church has to add a service or two to accommodate all, that's their choice but I bet most would overjoyed to do so.

Now, what do you do as Czar if 2 weeks into this re-opening the attack rate doubles or triples? Nobody wants to be the one to make the decision that leads to this because no one wants anymore people to get sick much less a lot more. But whenever we open back up, even if it's in stages, more people will likely get infected and the elected leaders who made the decision will get blamed.

When we do open back up, and I hope it's soon, I would allow everything to open back up subject to social distancing enforcement for several weeks. And I'd do everything possible to encourage those with underlying conditions, especially if they are old but really anyone in that situation, to continue to shelter in place. But if they're adults and went out, they would still have to social distance. And anyone who tests positive would have to be quarantined for 2 weeks in one of the many empty hotels courtesy of the city. Have each city contract with one such hotel in their city, and the county can do the same.
Aggie1205
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Rapier108 said:

It was the same press conference where Bill Oliver from WTAW said "Wuhan Style Lock Down". They said it a couple of minutes later when talking about what could happen if they had to impose additional restrictions.
I think I found the press conference and watched it. They did especially stress that grocery stores would remain open and that people didn't need to rush out. And said straight up that this wasn't a lock down. The Bryan mayor specifically explained the difference between a lock down and shelter in place.



Quote:

Lock down, quarantine, shelter in place, etc. etc. etc.

The terms are all interchangeable.
You said this on another thread, do you still think that a shelter in place and a lock down are the same thing?
Aggie1205
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Quote:

Then I would look at what would be the least disruptive economically, but also do the best to limit the virus' spread.
That seems great, I think everyone would be on board. What is that balance though?

Rapier108
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Aggie1205 said:

Rapier108 said:

It was the same press conference where Bill Oliver from WTAW said "Wuhan Style Lock Down". They said it a couple of minutes later when talking about what could happen if they had to impose additional restrictions.
I think I found the press conference and watched it. They did especially stress that grocery stores would remain open and that people didn't need to rush out. And said straight up that this wasn't a lock down. The Bryan mayor specifically explained the difference between a lock down and shelter in place.



Quote:

Lock down, quarantine, shelter in place, etc. etc. etc.

The terms are all interchangeable.
You said this on another thread, do you still think that a shelter in place and a lock down are the same thing?
I am not going to get into that argument again.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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Simple things like as saray said, such as letting small businesses stay open. They could easily put rules into place for dealing with customers such as scheduling appointments to drop off/pick up and the customer does not have to come into the business for most things.

This is what my eye doctor is doing. While they're not required to close, they are not seeing patients except for an emergency. You can still order new glasses and contacts, or drop off glasses for repairs. It does require calling ahead and they'll come out to either bring you your order, or take your glasses. Plenty of other businesses that have been forced to close could operate the same way.

And on the issue of what is essential and non-essential, why the heck did I see two different vape shops still open? Amazing those would be considered essential.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Aggie1205
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Rapier108 said:


One thing I would absolutely not do is make threats such as imposing a "Wuhan Style Lock Down" or make statements which make people think we want to close grocery stores. The day they made the Wuhan comment, the grocery stores were about normal in terms of customers. Within 1 hour, there was not a single parking space left.

Below is a quote from you on the thread after the shelter in place was announced. So which was it? Not a single parking spot left or like a normal day? You keep blaming others for going overboard and causing panic, but your own posts seem to be doing just that.


Quote:

I was shocked when I drove by HEB and Wal-Mart in Bryan. Neither was crowded at all. Looked at most like any normal day.
Aggie1205
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Rapier108 said:

Simple things like as saray said, such as letting small businesses stay open. They could easily put rules into place for dealing with customers such as scheduling appointments to drop off/pick up and the customer does not have to come into the business for most things.

This is what my eye doctor is doing. While they're not required to close, they are not seeing patients except for an emergency. You can still order new glasses and contacts, or drop off glasses for repairs. It does require calling ahead and they'll come out to either bring you your order, or take your glasses. Plenty of other businesses that have been forced to close could operate the same way.

And on the issue of what is essential and non-essential, why the heck did I see two different vape shops still open? Amazing those would be considered essential.
So having a shelter in place order isn't clear enough and leads to panic, but as the BC Czar you would allow businesses to be open but regulate the scheduling of customers? How would you communicate that in a way that is easy to understand? You have said that even when the local leaders have clearly stated that grocery stores will be open that people don't understand.
Aggie1205
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Saray,

Quote:

Religious services

One of the more controversial parts of Abbott's order is the one addition he made to the federally recommended list of essential activities: religious services. His order encourages churches to conduct services remotely whenever possible, but if they must meet in person, they should follow the federal social-distancing guidelines.

Meanwhile, some states have not as clearly carved out exemptions for churches. Washington has clearly banned "spiritual" gatherings of any type, while some other states are not as clear-cut but do not go out of their way to exempt religious services like Texas has done.



Doesn't seen to me that churches are banned from meeting in Texas. As mentioned before, most churches seem to be making the decision not to meet on their own. If you are unhappy with your church not meeting, perhaps your anger is better directed at your churches leadership.
cavscout96
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Mooney's order prohibited all public or private gatherings of more than 10 people.
AgGunNut
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Vape shops were allowed to remain open because they sell CBD products which are arguably medicinal in use. I've believe they were allowed to stay open as long as they adapted businesses practices and only did curbside order/pickup.
02skiag
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Aggie1205 said:

Rapier108 said:

Simple things like as saray said, such as letting small businesses stay open. They could easily put rules into place for dealing with customers such as scheduling appointments to drop off/pick up and the customer does not have to come into the business for most things.

This is what my eye doctor is doing. While they're not required to close, they are not seeing patients except for an emergency. You can still order new glasses and contacts, or drop off glasses for repairs. It does require calling ahead and they'll come out to either bring you your order, or take your glasses. Plenty of other businesses that have been forced to close could operate the same way.

And on the issue of what is essential and non-essential, why the heck did I see two different vape shops still open? Amazing those would be considered essential.
So having a shelter in place order isn't clear enough and leads to panic, but as the BC Czar you would allow businesses to be open but regulate the scheduling of customers? How would you communicate that in a way that is easy to understand? You have said that even when the local leaders have clearly stated that grocery stores will be open that people don't understand.


The store would regulate customers, not government. Government would merely set expectations, social distancing guidelines/rules... just like they currently do for groceries. Don't over think it.
02skiag
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You have to open business up, bottom line. If you have to require masks inside any building but your residence, so be it. But the current situation is not sustainable. Our county and most of Texas does not have the same conditions as a New York or Europe. Public transportation is almost nonexistent compared to them.

-Keep anyone that can work from home at home.
-Keep schools closed
-Keep dining rooms closed a little longer if numbers aren't low enough by April 30.
-Open all retail with social distancing guidelines, maintain 6', etc. Perhaps requiring masks, possibly limit number of customers in building.
-Further restrictions may be required for the mall since there is the common space, depending on how case numbers look.
-Any entertainment business can open as long as it meets the social distancing requirements. There is no reason the Safari drive thru cannot be open right now.
*provide every single detail about current cases allowed by law. Age, how many cases are related, where clusters occurred, etc.
Aggie1205
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cavscout96 said:

Mooney's order prohibited all public or private gatherings of more than 10 people.
The question I posed to yourself, Rapier, and Saray was based on if you were placed in charge right now. The local order has already expired and we are under the state one now. Saray stated that if named Czar he would allow churches to meet. I don't believe there is anything keeping them from meeting now.
Aggie1205
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02skiag said:

You have to open business up, bottom line. If you have to require masks inside any building but your residence, so be it. But the current situation is not sustainable. Our county and most of Texas does not have the same conditions as a New York or Europe. Public transportation is almost nonexistent compared to them.

-Keep anyone that can work from home at home.
-Keep schools closed
-Keep dining rooms closed a little longer if numbers aren't low enough by April 30.
-Open all retail with social distancing guidelines, maintain 6', etc. Perhaps requiring masks, possibly limit number of customers in building.
-Further restrictions may be required for the mall since there is the common space, depending on how case numbers look.
-Any entertainment business can open as long as it meets the social distancing requirements. There is no reason the Safari drive thru cannot be open right now.
*provide every single detail about current cases allowed by law. Age, how many cases are related, where clusters occurred, etc.
Would Grand Central Station be considered entertainment? Movie theatres? Gyms?

What about barbers, salons, etc?

I guess you disagree with the posters that want to open up dining rooms and bars.

I haven't driven around town that much, but on my trips to the grocery store almost all of the retail shops I have seen have been open. Some of the clothing only places are the main ones I see closed.
lost my dog
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agrab86 said:

saray said:



E. Open all churches. Configure for social distancing; but let people make a choice about whether they wish to go to church or not.


E. Most churches I've been to are already configured for social distancing. Just have family units stagger throughout the sanctuary - most can handle a bunch of worshippers with a 6-feet separation. If a church has to add a service or two to accommodate all, that's their choice but I bet most would overjoyed to do so.

I really wonder what churches you have in mind as being configured for social distancing. Even with the students gone, I can't picture St. Mary's keeping people six feet apart. Nor St. Thomas Episcopal, nor First Baptist Bryan. For better or worse, the churches are normally crowded in this town, and I expect would be a source of contagion if not kept closed. To echo another poster here "this isn't New York City".
02skiag
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Aggie1205 said:

02skiag said:

You have to open business up, bottom line. If you have to require masks inside any building but your residence, so be it. But the current situation is not sustainable. Our county and most of Texas does not have the same conditions as a New York or Europe. Public transportation is almost nonexistent compared to them.

-Keep anyone that can work from home at home.
-Keep schools closed
-Keep dining rooms closed a little longer if numbers aren't low enough by April 30.
-Open all retail with social distancing guidelines, maintain 6', etc. Perhaps requiring masks, possibly limit number of customers in building.
-Further restrictions may be required for the mall since there is the common space, depending on how case numbers look.
-Any entertainment business can open as long as it meets the social distancing requirements. There is no reason the Safari drive thru cannot be open right now.
*provide every single detail about current cases allowed by law. Age, how many cases are related, where clusters occurred, etc.
Would Grand Central Station be considered entertainment? Movie theatres? Gyms?

What about barbers, salons, etc?

I guess you disagree with the posters that want to open up dining rooms and bars.

I haven't driven around town that much, but on my trips to the grocery store almost all of the retail shops I have seen have been open. Some of the clothing only places are the main ones I see closed.


I just thought up a few quick ideas. What are your thoughts?
Deej
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Going to be interesting when the politicians get a look at sales tax revenue. Just filed and paid March. My little business usually generates several hundred for Brazos County and Bryan per month. In March it was $40 dollars and April will be even less.
b0ridi
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Deej said:

Going to be interesting when the politicians get a look at sales tax revenue. Just filed and paid March. My little business usually generates several hundred for Brazos County and Bryan per month. In March it was $40 dollars and April will be even less.
They'll just raise property tax appraisals.
isitjustme
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lost my dog said:

agrab86 said:

saray said:



E. Open all churches. Configure for social distancing; but let people make a choice about whether they wish to go to church or not.


E. Most churches I've been to are already configured for social distancing. Just have family units stagger throughout the sanctuary - most can handle a bunch of worshippers with a 6-feet separation. If a church has to add a service or two to accommodate all, that's their choice but I bet most would overjoyed to do so.

I really wonder what churches you have in mind as being configured for social distancing. Even with the students gone, I can't picture St. Mary's keeping people six feet apart. Nor St. Thomas Episcopal, nor First Baptist Bryan. For better or worse, the churches are normally crowded in this town, and I expect would be a source of contagion if not kept closed. To echo another poster here "this isn't New York City".
At some churches it can be done more easily than at others. And again, if the churches needed to add another service or two to accommodate, then I'm sure most would be happy to. These sanctuaries have a set amount of space, so no need to make them reconfigure pews or chairs or anything, since that's likely unconstitutional.

To distance, one family unit at the end of one pew, another at the opposite end of the next, and so forth. You may not get the whole 6' at some churches, so live with 5' or spread them further. Point is, reconfiguring can be done with seating patterns. And I know a lot of churches already offer many more than one or two services, and not all of these are bursting at the seam. The church will need to convince their congregants to spread out not only during services, but among services as well. Soon we'll be back to normal anyway, i.e., less than 3 months.
lost my dog
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agrab86 said:



At some churches it can be done more easily than at others. And again, if the churches needed to add another service or two to accommodate, then I'm sure most would be happy to. These sanctuaries have a set amount of space, so no need to make them reconfigure pews or chairs or anything, since that's likely unconstitutional.

To distance, one family unit at the end of one pew, another at the opposite end of the next, and so forth. You may not get the whole 6' at some churches, so live with 5' or spread them further. Point is, reconfiguring can be done with seating patterns. And I know a lot of churches already offer many more than one or two services, and not all of these are bursting at the seam. The church will need to convince their congregants to spread out not only during services, but among services as well. Soon we'll be back to normal anyway, i.e., less than 3 months.
I think you and I are thinking about churches with very different physical layouts, and very different numbers of congregants and services. Given the number of people who attend a place like St. Joseph's and the size of that church, you would be running masses all day.

(Plus you wouldn't be able to seat people in every row - you'd have to leave empty rows between them.)

I am sure that there are smaller churches around here where your idea would work. But I think most people would not be able to take advantage of it.
oklaunion
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b0ridi said:

Deej said:

Going to be interesting when the politicians get a look at sales tax revenue. Just filed and paid March. My little business usually generates several hundred for Brazos County and Bryan per month. In March it was $40 dollars and April will be even less.
They'll just raise property tax appraisals.
I was actually wondering about the appraisal notices yesterday. I would think the easiest thing for the CAD to do would be to keep all values the same as last year in order to keep the number of face-to-face meetings down. There is no way, if things continue into June/July, that they will be able to satisfy property appeals if values are raised.
aggiepaintrain
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I heard the same across the board for existing homes.
gunan01
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Up to 108 cases now (11 new).

One more death (a female in her 80s). There have been 8 deaths overall. As others have stated, would be nice to know a few more details of death clusters without breaking HIPAA. So far all deaths have been elderly individuals.
backinbcs
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I totally agree. It's almost irresponsible not to give useful information if it can help reduce exposures. This can easily be done without raising privacy issues.
gunan01
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backinbcs said:

I totally agree. It's almost irresponsible not to give useful information if it can help reduce exposures. This can easily be done without raising privacy issues.
And I think this is especially important because our case fatality rate is probably the highest of any county in Texas, or close to it.
Tookieclothespin
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Unless Waterford wants to tell us otherwise, I'll just assume the deaths are all theirs. Next year that home will have new owners and a new name.
CS78
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I wouldn't get your hopes up. They'll streamline online appeals or phone appeals before they miss out on money.
02skiag
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I tried to post a chart of the data but I cant figure out how to format it for Texags. I think I need to make it an image and then post that
Rapier108
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Just a few interesting points from today's BCHD report.

Current rate of positive tests is 6.07%.

53% are people 20-49 (probably mostly students) and most of the non-travel cases are "cluster" related which means either multiple people in the same residence, people in a very specific area (apartment complex or one street/neighborhood), and of course The Waterford. If most cases are spreading through clusters, that would seem to indicate it is not running wild all across the county at this time.

They still need to say if any of the other 4 deaths are related to The Waterford, if they're from another cluster, or completely random.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
02skiag
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Here's the daily data since the first case. I'll do better formatting if I update it later.

Conf: confirmed cases
Rec: Total recovered
Tot D: total deaths
Act: active cases
Hosp: # hospitalized that day
Daily D: daily deaths
Age: age of deaths

nthomas99
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The health department shared the following link on social media:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak?fbclid=IwAR29TqCR_2KSL2tDy6b9imxLtgOXfOmn_VNOTe3iCD-1oLvuU9PZyY3sF2w

Plug in Texas at the bottom of the page. With that model, they're targeting peak deaths for Texas on April 24th, with 66 deaths that day and no projected bed shortages in hospitals. In short, the curve is possibly already much flatter than need be in Texas.

So isn't it time to start talking publicly about a way to at least partially unrolling this thing, at the very least after that date? I know there's varying opinions here, I'd love to hear a cogent counterargument.

We tactically retreated with the shelter-in-place. Supply lines seem to be approaching an adequate level for some forward steps. It's about time to take the fight to the enemy (to be clear, the virus). Vaccines won't be ready in time that we can wait it out. At some point, we're going to have to take some calculated steps forward, and we'd all feel better to hear this from pressers.
Fitch
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Apologies if already posted. Latest figures can be found here: http://www.brazoshealth.org/

As of 4/8/20

02skiag
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For the age percentage chart, is that for active cases or total cases?
If total cases, then it shows 18 cases in their 80s and 90s. 5 in their 70s. I am curious as to who is currently hospitalized.

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