Why the sudden spike?

Sudden? I think it's a result of what we're seeing around the country with increases.

Also, rapid tests are not very dependable and its cold/flu season so more people are getting sniffles, coughs, sinus and headaches which leads to more testing. Some will legit have it, others won't but get false positives.

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Some will legit have it, others won't but get false positives.

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Honest question - which rapid tests are more likely to result in false positives? I thought it is the PCR test that is more likely to give a false positive result because of its high sensitivity, and the rapid antigen test has a higher false negative rate?

I think the recent increase in reported positive cases are due a combination of the nursing home clusters and college students being college students. As a parent of a CSISD student, there has also been an increase of school-age children and CSISD staff testing positive the past week or so. After seeing the groups of school kids in the streets on Halloween, this makes sense. With the postponed TAMU football games and upcoming campus student holiday, my fingers are crossed that we'll see a downturn in reported positive cases.

Its clear from the data that the rapid Ag test had higher false positive rates and false negative rates. Negative due to higher viral load required for positive. Negatives... who knows. Multiple theories. But the data is clear.

MiMi said:

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Some will legit have it, others won't but get false positives.

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Honest question - which rapid tests are more likely to result in false positives? I thought it is the PCR test that is more likely to give a false positive result because of its high sensitivity, and the rapid antigen test has a higher false negative rate?

I think the recent increase in reported positive cases are due a combination of the nursing home clusters and college students being college students. As a parent of a CSISD student, there has also been an increase of school-age children and CSISD staff testing positive the past week or so. After seeing the groups of school kids in the streets on Halloween, this makes sense. With the postponed TAMU football games and upcoming campus student holiday, my fingers are crossed that we'll see a downturn in reported positive cases.

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Check, check, and check.

Also, at least one private school has school has gone virtual for a couple of weeks due to positives and, I think, the associated contact tracing.

Ok, do we consider the saliva tests TAMU is getting, with a 24-48 hour turnaround "rapid tests?" These are the ones I've had so far and now am concerned about false negatives...

I am almost positive not. Rapid are the 15-30 minute ones from what I understand.

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Ok, do we consider the saliva tests TAMU is getting, with a 24-48 hour turnaround "rapid tests?" These are the ones I've had so far and now am concerned about false negatives...

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It appears those are not the rapid antigen tests. From the TAMU website:

TAMUS-funded COVID tests: The COVID-19 tests are funded by Texas A&M University and provided by Curative, Inc. These tests are PCR tests (to determine an active COVID-19 infection), are collected via mouth swab, and are available to students, faculty and staff.

Today's numbers: 46 new confirmed cases, 18 probable cases, 32 Brazos county residents hospitalized, 55 tests, 0 deaths

JMac03 said:

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I am almost positive not. Rapid are the 15-30 minute ones from what I understand.

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This.

Thanks for the clarifications re the TAMU tests.

cases and testing should spike the next 10 days with A&M asking everyone to test this week. Will be interesting to see how many tests are actually conducted.

Have any of the clusters been identified? Seems likely that the one last week and this week might be those schools, no?

Makes sense, some will test even though showing no symptoms and will find out they are infected.

Would be interesting to see that particular data set, then track those folks' contact tracing to see which contacts pop hot.

Not conclusive, but would be more granular, to some extent.

cavscout96 said:

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Have any of the clusters been identified? Seems likely that the one last week and this week might be those schools, no?

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At least two sororities had cases within the last week so that would likely be two of the clusters.

And going back the past 6 weeks, at least 4 nursing homes.

The BCHD never tells us locations unless that information has become public through another source such as A&M, the location of the cluster making it public (Sanderson Farms), or someone going to the local media.

Seems to me it would make sense to ID clusters.

If for no other reason, then to close any gaps in contact tracing. Seems like someone could say, hey I was there 48 hours ago, maybe I should tell my doc and go get tested so I don't spread it unwittingly.

cavscout96 said:

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Seems to me it would make sense to ID clusters.

If for no other reason, then to close any gaps in contact tracing. Seems like someone could say, hey I was there 48 hours ago, maybe I should tell my doc and go get tested so I don't spread it unwittingly.

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I remember back in March and April we were saying the same thing. There is nothing prohibiting them from doing it, unless one is talking about a cluster of only related people (single family home or apartment) which does not need to be made public. Other counties sure did give out such information.

Today's numbers: 82 new confirmed cases, 16 probable cases, 36 Brazos county residents hospitalized, 316 tests, 2 deaths - a hospitalized female in her 60's and a hospitalized male in his 70's.

Wednesday's results include:

90's - 0
80's - 0
70's - 3
11 from a cluster

Region N hospitals:
73 (-2) Covid patients, 15 (-2) in ICU
730 Total Beds, 587 Total Staffed Beds, 486 Occupied
3 ICU Beds Available, 48 ICU Beds Occupied

+24 PCR cases today than this day last week
45% in the 18-24 age group (37 people)

Spreadsheet updated, chart tab updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

lockett93 said:

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3 ICU Beds available

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I noticed that too AggiePhil. KBTX reports the hospital capacity rates, which have me curious what number motivates POSSIBLE things like lockdowns. I am guessing these things are based (in large part?) on how the local hospital network is holding up. Earlier I posted that I didn't think lockdowns were coming because we were doing so good on hospitalization rates I'm holding out hope those numbers improve soon, but also guessing that that's the metric to pay attention to if you are concerned when things like stay at home orders, shutdowns etc. might be coming.

Hopefully our cases start dropping again soon.

dubi said:

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AggiePhil said:

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lockett93 said:

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3 ICU Beds available

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This is normal for a hospital even before Covid. ICU beds ebb and flow.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but while they have not pinned an exact number of those ICU beds going to Covid, they have in the past days implied Covid is affecting those numbers. Also, I do not know of another time in recent history we have been down to just 3 ICU beds.