There's a hurricane coming?

-Port Bolivar

People are gassing up down here in Flour Bluff. Cutting our stay a day short and heading north tomorrow. May go to the ranch and take 16 home. 37 may be a cluster.

This radar makes it look like the original eye was dispersed over Yucatan, but a new eye formed northward and is proceeding northwest.


Edit - that is not the radar I was seeing on KENS and thought I had marked, but does give the idea that Texas is now very much a target.

BrazosDog02 said:

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TikkaShooter said:

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It's a strange feeling, to be so angry at something I have zero control over.

Just felt like our best chance to kill this drought, and now we get to watch the greenest part of the state get all the rain.

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It is strange. I'm with you. Mega pissed. Wanted the rain. Prayed for it. Prayed for a storm big enough to get it all the way inland to the hill country.

Either way, Think of it this way, you were dry last week and you'll be dry next week. Nothing has changed for you, me and most others.

3 days ago some people were happy the storm was going to Mexico but some of those same people are going to be staring at leveled homes, power outages, mass destruction, and loss of everything they own in a few days….and they know it.

Could be worse. Droughts suck but they don't last forever.

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We all were praying for it to head your way. Only thing I can tell you is this is supposed to be a very active hurricane season and this is only the B storm so we'll keep praying!

BiochemAg97 said:

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TikkaShooter said:

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Yep. That'll do it.

Central Tx with the bullseye.

Hill country high and dry.

Drought year #4 here we come

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Still plenty of hurricane season to go.

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Yeah, but we've been saying that for 3+ years now and Texas gets less than 1 tropical storm or hurricane per year on average. Being an active year (hopefully), we could certainly get another one, especially since most hit Texas in August and September, but these storms don't make it this way very often. Statistically, this was probably our shot.

We are supposed to be into the La Niña pattern by end of the month so that window is closing fast. NOAA put it at something like 85% likely that we enter into La Niña by July. Initial sings are already there if you look at the surface 1000 ft and below in the Pacific Ocean. That means we got a 2 months between the end of the El Niño and the start of La Niña.

Updated model pushing it even further east now. New expected landfall is PLV and then moving just west of Houston and then east of BCS splitting between Tyler and Lufkin. One model now pushing it to the east of Houston w landfall over Beaumont.

Hill country is now WAY outta this path.

PLV ?

Port Lavaca

G. hirsutum Ag said:

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Port Lavaca

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Thanks

Bayou City said:

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One model now pushing it to the east of Houston w landfall over Beaumont.

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Yes please. (Sorry Golden Triangle peeps)

Daddy-O5 said:

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Bayou City said:

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One model now pushing it to the east of Houston w landfall over Beaumont.

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Yes please. (Sorry Golden Triangle peeps)

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When they said "the models don't handle these welll", they weren't remotely kidding. It might be in Florida Monday morning.

NHC released their 10:00 update

Move east, move east, move east, please. We don't need anymore rain in NW Houston.

Portland tx representative checking in. Hurricane is tracking right where we want it. Because 48 hrs out it's sure to change. Right? Right??

Portland resident back when Celia hit.

y'all need to stop bogarting the hurricanes and send some our way.

Alan Holt 10pm update showing projections right around Rockport now keeping us on the dry side

The late model tracks that weren't included in the 10pm forecast were just released and they are further east than the 10pm track. Now passing somewhere between Sealy and downtown Houston w landfall between Palacios and Bay City. Should have a better idea of the agreement in the level of eastward movement in the forecast when the next early stage forecast is released.

10pm from noaa is much more favorable for me personally as well. More towards seadrift, port O'Connor

Where did you see this?

The 3 TAB models (Trajectory and Beta Model - Medium, Shallow, & Deep Layer) have it tracking the furthest east. That family of models has been one of the best for Beryl so far.

TABM, TABS, TABD are the TAB family if you're looking online.

If you track the model updates layer over layer over layer you can see them shift as the day progresses. It's interesting to watch the early stage vs late stage forecasts come in because it lets you see the degree of confidence in the maintenance of the forecast. When they line up, it's almost a given that it's going to hit. When the late stage forecasts correlate but vary from the previous forecast, you usually see the next forecast push towards those late models since they are the basis of the next early model.

If you're a math nerd, an active Hurricane season is like an 6 month crack binge.

Listening to the news today, there is a ridge of high pressure over the western part of the US that has them baking right now. A low pressure system is supposed to push down from Wyoming through Colorado Sunday and move that high pressure east. The faster that low pressure system moves in and the high pressure system moves out, the further east this thing moves.

Bayou City said:

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Listening to the news today, there is a ridge of high pressure over the western part of the US that has them baking right now. A low pressure system is supposed to push down from Wyoming through Colorado Sunday and move that high pressure east. The faster that low pressure system moves in and the high pressure system moves out, the further east this thing moves.

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yep. we are baking through middle part of next week. forecast up to 97 by Tuesday.

You all are welcome

Of the 27 most valid storm models, 9 now have the track east of Columbus. 6 of those models were run after the latest 10pm update and not included. 3 were included in the 10pm update. The remaining will update in the next 6 hours.

Just updated again. Now 12 of 27 are showing Columbus to west Houston with one in Beaumont

The ventusky.com weather site has it coming in at 1 am Monday over the west end of Galveston island with around 80 mph winds. Interesting to see if that is what happens.

BrazosDog02 said:

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Daddy-O5 said:

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Bayou City said:

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One model now pushing it to the east of Houston w landfall over Beaumont.

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Yes please. (Sorry Golden Triangle peeps)

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When they said "the models don't handle these welll", they weren't remotely kidding. It might be in Florida Monday morning.

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Or loop around and go back to the Yucatan

SanAntoneAg said:

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C@LAg said:

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Bayou City said:

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Listening to the news today, there is a ridge of high pressure over the western part of the US that has them baking right now. A low pressure system is supposed to push down from Wyoming through Colorado Sunday and move that high pressure east. The faster that low pressure system moves in and the high pressure system moves out, the further east this thing moves.

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yep. we are baking through middle part of next week. forecast up to 97 by Tuesday.

You all are welcome

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97? Meh, just another summer day here. Beats 99.

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except most houses/apartments do not have AC here.

Early morning discussion. Seems they aren't so sure about that huge east shift. I'm not likely boarding up for this.

Beryl's structure this morning is a shadow of its former self in the
Caribbean, with the low-level center partially exposed and displaced
south of the best mid-level rotation and deep convection. The final
couple of Air Force Hurricane Hunter fixes indicated the pressure
was rising, though the aircraft did also observe 850-mb flight level
winds of 65 kt, which still supports maintaining an initial
intensity of 50 kt. This value is between the Dvorak intensity
estimates provided by TAFB and SAB. Beryl's wind radii were adjusted
some from to a combination of aircraft, scatterometer, and synthetic
aperture radar wind data.

Beryl is currently estimated to be moving west-northwest at
300/10-kt. Soon, the tropical storm is expected to turn more
northwestward and gradually slow down as the steering currents
evolve due to both a weakness developing in the subtropical ridge to
the north, in addition to an upper-level low positioned west of
Beryl also imparting more poleward steering. After the significant
rightward shifts in the track guidance over the past day or so, the
latest cycle has come into better agreement very near the previous
NHC forecast track. In fact, the latest forecast track is very close
to the prior forecast, roughly between the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts. This track also splits the difference between the
reliable TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, it should be noted
that there still remains a fair amount of across-track spread in the
latest ECMWF ensemble guidance at the time Beryl is forecast to make
landfall in Texas on Monday.

The poor structure of the tropical storm this morning does not favor
much intensification in the short-term, and I suspect it will take
another day or so for convection to reorganize around the inner core
of Beryl. This process could also be slowed by a decent amount of
dry air in the southern Gulf of Mexico being imported into Beryl's
circulation by about 20 kt of southerly wind shear. However, this
wind shear decreases to under 10 kt per SHIPS guidance after 24
hours as Beryl moves into very warm 29-30 C sea-surface
temperatures. The upper-level low currently inducing the southerly
shear will also become positioned farther southwest of Beryl, in a
quadrant more favorable for TC intensification. Thus, strengthening
is expected to begin on Sunday with the rate of intensification
likely to increase in the final 24 hours before landfall, in
agreement with the most favorable conditions being prescribed by the
GFS and ECMWF models. The intensity forecast remains on the high
side of the guidance envelope, but is also similar to the prior
forecast and shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before reaching the
Texas coast on Monday.

I was planning on running down to Rockport this morning and boarding up our house. But if this is going further east or staying further south, I'm not going to bother with it.