The damn cone of uncertainty keeps drifting north.
Time for a hurricane thread?
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Last: 17 days ago by ABATTBQ11
Yeah... Too far east too...
Latest update seems to be getting a better idea of where landfall will be. Likely Tropical storm or Category 1 according to the update
rab79 said:
The damn cone of uncertainty keeps drifting north.
Yeah, but look at the projected path. Last plot looks like somewhere between maybe Del Rio and San Antonio. Unless something changes on Friday, I'm probably putting some boards up this weekend.
[url=https://ibb.co/W0nW1SH]
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Whoa, pretty big jump north for landfall with the newest advisory.
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That's a hill country rain maker
Hope it doesn't shift any more to the east. West half of the state needs rain, east half doesn't need any more.
X2
I'll be very sad if the storm puts SA on the dry side
I'll be very sad if the storm puts SA on the dry side
South Texas quail maker
What happened to the one behind Beryl? It disappeared.
Already rain chances dropped for Austin. I believe Austin San Antonio will be on the dry side 
Duckhook said:rab79 said:
The damn cone of uncertainty keeps drifting north.
Yeah, but look at the projected path. Last plot looks like somewhere between maybe Del Rio and San Antonio. Unless something changes on Friday, I'm probably putting some boards up this weekend.
[url=https://ibb.co/W0nW1SH]
Where do you live ?
Not liking the GEFS model ensemble at all. TikkaShooter said:
X2
I'll be very sad if the storm puts SA on the dry side
Looking more and more like it will.
****. Everything west of Seguin just can't catch a damn break.
Yeah, I don't like that at all.
Quote:
I'll be very sad if the storm puts SA on the dry
Looking more and more like it will.
****. Everything west of Seguin just can't catch a damn break.
For the record, we're hot and dusty east of Seguin as well.
When the models keep shifting away like this, they almost never shift back the way you want them to. Looks like we're going to be on the hot and dry side.
This track will be a total F job to those of us in year 3 of a really awful drought
What is causing this thing to shift East? Usually it's high pressure systems that keep hurricanes and tropical storms from making it into Southwest Texas. As far as I can see, there isn't a high pressure system sitting over us.
Wind shear? No idea but this update sucks ass
With that storm inland, all forecasts are semi-educated guesses at this point. That peninsula can do weird things to a storm like this. Anything from it crusing right over and out in 5-7 hours to it dragging over it for a long time. Where and when it exits will be the key.
Breakdown of the blocking highHubert J. Farnsworth said:
What is causing this thing to shift East? Usually it's high pressure systems that keep hurricanes and tropical storms from making it into Southwest Texas. As far as I can see, there isn't a high pressure system sitting over us.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
There was a high pressure ridge over the SE that was extending over into Texas that was blocking it from coming north. Looks like with the storm slowing down more than predicted during the approach to the Yucatan and moving slowly over the peninsula, the point where the hurricane will be when the ridge erodes and allows it to turn north has shifted to the east. Levi will probably explain it better when his video comes out a few hours from now.Hubert J. Farnsworth said:
What is causing this thing to shift East? Usually it's high pressure systems that keep hurricanes and tropical storms from making it into Southwest Texas. As far as I can see, there isn't a high pressure system sitting over us.
What a tease! South Texas is going to end up getting diddly squat out of Beryl. Calling a landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca with a banana curve to the north east once inland.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Bandera can't catch a break. We have been in extreme drought conditions for seems like 5 years now. But also don't want it to hit place down at Padre either. Was so hoping for a landfall south of Brownsville and a track up towards uvalde.
Yeah this sucks. It's just been incredibly disappointing being west of 35. Been seeing rain all over the state for like the last year and it just fades away the second it gets close.
It's really bad
Add in the extreme winter weather storms, and the mature oaks have taken it really, really badly.
All the old timers say they will recover, but I just haven't seen it
Add in the extreme winter weather storms, and the mature oaks have taken it really, really badly.
All the old timers say they will recover, but I just haven't seen it
I know. I'm in far west SA and facing the same stuff. Seems like anything coming from the west dies just outside Bandera or doesn't come quite this far south until it's east of 35. Anything from the south doesn't get this far north. Anything from the north doesn't get this far south.
ABATTBQ11 said:
I know. I'm in far west SA and facing the same stuff. Seems like anything coming from the west dies just outside Bandera or doesn't come quite this far south until it's east of 35. Anything from the south doesn't get this far north. Anything from the north doesn't get this far south.
I'm out in West Medina County. Even when we get rain, it's like the heavy stuff peters out just short of reaching us and we only get 1/4 to 1/2 an inch. It keeps the grass green but doesn't do much else. It then always rebuilds and dumps rain East of I35. Something in the atmosphere is preventing heavy rains from San Antonio West to Del Rio. This has been going on for a number of years. It's a far cry from that 10 year stretch of 1997 to 2007.
Until that storm comes off the Yucatan and dabbles with the Bay of Campeche a bit, don't count anything out. How many storms in the past 40 years have had a direct bead, supposedly, on BRO and STX and all of a sudden made sharp left turns as they traveled.
This is how it has been near Concan. Enough rain to keep it greener than in years past but not enough rain for runoff.
ttha_aggie_09 said:
This is how it has been near Concan. Enough rain to keep it greener than in years past but not enough rain for runoff.
Edwards, Real and Bandera counties, along with Northern Uvalde and Northern Medina counties are where we really need the heavy rain to recharge the Edwards aquifer. Throw in central Medina county to recharge the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer.
My experience is that these storms that take a direct line at BRO always bounce north. Or they head straight west and land far enough in Mexico that there is little impact on south Texas. Given the reports on conditions affecting Beryl, its easy to see where this storm takes a turn to the right as the ridge keeping it south dissipates and allows for the northern turn in the storm's track.RGV AG said:
Until that storm comes off the Yucatan and dabbles with the Bay of Campeche a bit, don't count anything out. How many storms in the past 40 years have had a direct bead, supposedly, on BRO and STX and all of a sudden made sharp left turns as they traveled.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Was really hoping this would be the break we needed in south Texas and the hill country.
The Eyewall has a fresh post up.
https://theeyewall.com/beryl-comes-ashore-in-the-yucatan-with-a-fluid-forecast-and-eyes-on-the-texas-coast-this-weekend/
https://theeyewall.com/beryl-comes-ashore-in-the-yucatan-with-a-fluid-forecast-and-eyes-on-the-texas-coast-this-weekend/
Yeah. It's just gotten down right depressing. Alberto cut South and have us hardly anything. Beryl looking like it'll cut east and give us hardly anything. Everything else just doesn't have enough oomph to get over whatever is keeping rain out.
Supposedly SA had like 15" of rain in February, but I think almost all of it was on the southeast side.
Supposedly SA had like 15" of rain in February, but I think almost all of it was on the southeast side.
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