Heck they've already changed for this storm. Several days ago they had this thing turning north way before it got to the east coast. If some posters want to wait to read the facts when they are history so be it. But don't belittle us for stating where it "might" go or where it will "probably" go. The experts get to change their expectations. So do we.
2017 Hurricane Season
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Rockdoc said:
Heck they've already changed for this storm. Several days ago they had this thing turning north way before it got to the east coast. If some posters want to wait to read the facts when they are history so be it. But don't belittle us for stating where it "might" go or where it will "probably" go. The experts get to change their expectations. So do we.
Exactly!
What exactly was he wrong about in the referenced post?Random Walk said:
Trump voice: WRONG
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Rockdoc said:
Heck they've already changed for this storm. Several days ago they had this thing turning north way before it got to the east coast. If some posters want to wait to read the facts when they are history so be it. But don't belittle us for stating where it "might" go or where it will "probably" go. The experts get to change their expectations. So do we.
Just like the experts did with Ike if I recall. We should all keep open minds to this fact as the models keep tracking west.
So, back on topic... 11am NHC update
edit:Quote:
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
Quote:
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
Model accuracy falls off a cliff after 4-5 days and they get better w/ real-time data via missions.Rockdoc said:
Heck they've already changed for this storm. Several days ago they had this thing turning north way before it got to the east coast. If some posters want to wait to read the facts when they are history so be it. But don't belittle us for stating where it "might" go or where it will "probably" go. The experts get to change their expectations. So do we.
Here's how the models did at calling Harvey.
Euro killed it, GFS did well. Both are near identical on Irma's track 4-5 days out.
Yea, I know. But the talk about how chitty the infrastructure is there was very interesting. The idea of a half million homes being destroyed is scary.
Added to the OP
I would for sure have a plan in place in the event that the storm does come your way.Quote:
We're in Gainesville, FL, which is ~50 miles from the Gulf and ~65 miles from the Atlantic. My main concern is keeping our 3-yr old and 5-yr old girls safe. If the storm turns up the Atlantic coastline, we'll be evacuating to a friend's place in Tallahassee. I haven't quite figured out a plan if the storm is projected to ride up the Gulf coast, maybe find a cheap motel somewhere in Alabama or Georgia?
I dont know much about Florida or where you live, but consider your proximity to rivers, lakes, creeks and drainages for flooding. Consider trees around your home for damage to structures and the power grid. Also consider your evacuation path out. Will it be safer to stay put than to brave the roads? Are you prepared to not be able to come home for a while if you do leave? Have these conversations early with your wife then make an informed decision as a family.
If you live in a higher elevation of town, in a newer home, without trees around it then you would probably be just fine during the storm, but spending an extended amount of time stuck in your home without power might suck with small kids.
It might not be a bad idea to find a VRBO, Air bnb, or hotel further north in Georgia and have a short "vacation" with the kids. Have a place picked out with your bags packed. Sometimes its better to watch the storm on TV then out your bedroom window.
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Completely agree with pp. Since Florida is long and skinny (that's what she said) I am traumatized just thinking about the chaos of a mass evacuation. If I had an emergency fund I would leave the state and just get out of dodge before you are stuck in a traffic jam that makes pre-Rita look like rush hour in College Station.
username checks out.Jersey Girl said:
(that's what she said)
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the media coverage of Harvey will turn Florida into a complete hell hole regarding gas shortage & traffic from all the pre apocalyptic panic
There was a really good article posted in the Harvey thread, by a journalist who flew in a hurricane hunter out of the Bahamas. Fascinating and frightening. Let me see if I can find it.dave99ag said:
I wonder what kind of turbulence those pilots feel when flying around these beast of a hurricanes?
Here it is. Five and a half Gs is some severe turbulence.
https://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/hugo1.asp
https://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/hugo1.asp
Wether channel already showed bare shelves at Walmart or some store
Newest early spaghetti models have it moving further east now directly over Miami and going straight up the state. The late models have it even further east, moving over Miami and then back out hugging the FL atlantic coast to Charlestown.
12z GFS currently at hour 120... Ft Lauderdale taking the northern eyewall.
Yup. Looks like it's going to run the length of FL and then either hit the panhandle (early models) or back out to the Atlantic for a second landfall in Charlestown. Yikes.
Tropical Tidbits is getting pounded right now...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TropicalTidbits.com
September 5: Due to abnormally high traffic, soundings have been temporarily disabled to keep the server alive
I'm watching on Tropical Tidbits but it didn't look to me that it made landfall around Miami, just the eyewall hitting there.
And of course the high scoots off to the east (edit: or, maybe less of that?) so I'm guessing Georgia's long streak is over on this model run unless it goes Beaufort / Kiawah.
And of course the high scoots off to the east (edit: or, maybe less of that?) so I'm guessing Georgia's long streak is over on this model run unless it goes Beaufort / Kiawah.
Correct. Worst case scanerio.
The only good part about this run from a local perspective is that it moves up the Savannah River instead of continuing up the coast. Still, the surge here would probably be "fun." Our place including the land underneath it didn't flood during Gracie or Hugo but this might be a bigger test.
909?
The 2p adivsory did up it to 185.
Good lord, that's a powerful storm. It could be the first Cat 5 to make landfall in the US in quite a while. Let's hope it veers northeast and misses everything like some models are projecting, but I doubt we'll be that lucky.
Florida or Georgia look most likely to be hit, but big storms like this often turn later than expected, so I'm not ruling out this thing hitting Louisiana. Katrina turned way later than projected and caught many people off guard. I'll be watching this thing like a hawk, ready to evacuate.
It's gonna be a mess if millions of people in South and Central Florida have to evacuate, so I hope the government is prepared for that possibility right now.
Y'all stay safe.
Florida or Georgia look most likely to be hit, but big storms like this often turn later than expected, so I'm not ruling out this thing hitting Louisiana. Katrina turned way later than projected and caught many people off guard. I'll be watching this thing like a hawk, ready to evacuate.
It's gonna be a mess if millions of people in South and Central Florida have to evacuate, so I hope the government is prepared for that possibility right now.
Y'all stay safe.
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