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2017 Hurricane Season

665,052 Views | 3704 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by Swarely
mm98
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1:07p, 9/5/17
AG
909? Wow.

Already in the top 10 for pressure and in the top 5 for sustained wind speed.
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TKEAg04
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1:13p, 9/5/17
AG


This is the GFS on Saturday. Sub 900 hurricane.
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bjork
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In reply to TKEAg04 • 1:19p, 9/5/17
r/TropicalWeather has good commentary on the GFS. It's apparently broken and overshoots intensity. So, grain-of-salt and that jazz.
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45-70Ag
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1:20p, 9/5/17
The Wonderer
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In reply to TKEAg04 • 1:21p, 9/5/17
AG
TKEAg04 said:


This is the GFS on Saturday. Sub 900 hurricane.
It's going to straight up rip America's wang clean off.


This looks to be an Andrew-topping storm.

Damn..
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to The Wonderer • 1:23p, 9/5/17
AG
The Wonderer said:
TKEAg04 said:


This is the GFS on Saturday. Sub 900 hurricane.
It's going to straight up rip America's wang clean off.


This looks to be an Andrew-topping storm.

Damn..
GIF of the latest GFS.



Euro is still running: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwfion=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090512&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0
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TKEAg04
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In reply to bjork • 1:27p, 9/5/17
AG
bjork said:
r/TropicalWeather has good commentary on the GFS. It's apparently broken and overshoots intensity. So, grain-of-salt and that jazz.
Agreed. I tend to follow the Euro, but thought this latest GFS run was pretty damn insane.
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4040
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1:29p, 9/5/17
AG
Scary storm. Doesn't make much difference but I hope it hits during the day. Hated being completely in the dark riding out Ike and Harvey in Pearland.
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RangerRick9211
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1:33p, 9/5/17
AG
Euro 144 just hit showing landfall on the west side.



But tracking over Cuba should help, right?
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The Wonderer
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 1:35p, 9/5/17
AG
RangerRick9211 said:
Euro 144 just hit showing landfall on the west side.



But tracking over Cuba should help, right?
Yeah, see that pressure only gets down to the 930s. Cuba should hinder intensification.
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 1:43p, 9/5/17
AG
Euro wind map for 144: Max 154.9 mph.
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oragator
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2:00p, 9/5/17
That euro looks shady pressure wise. 24 hours over Cuba and it still has it as a cat 2 or so, and able to get back to a cat 4 in the short space to fl.
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G. hirsutum Ag
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In reply to oragator • 2:04p, 9/5/17
AG
Harvey went TD-cat4 in about 48 hours
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to oragator • 2:07p, 9/5/17
AG
oragator said:
That euro looks shady pressure wise. 24 hours over Cuba and it still has it as a cat 2 or so, and able to get back to a cat 4 in the short space to fl.
If the eye stays north of the mountains in Cuba, it likely won't even weaken that much. Or will still be a high end 2 before curving north.

It'd only take one eye wall replacement to make the jump from high 2 to low 4.
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The Wonderer
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In reply to G. hirsutum Ag • 2:14p, 9/5/17
AG
Seven said:
Harvey went TD-cat4 in about 48 hours
Over wide open waters without any piece touching land. Storm can't do that coming off Cuba and going into south Florida.
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RangerRick9211
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2:28p, 9/5/17
AG
Cool link from Reddit: https://codepen.io/alexneises/full/brJvLp/

Multiple webcams across the Leeward islands.
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carpe vinum
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3:01p, 9/5/17
AG
https://i.imgur.com/uReoXE6.gif
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Phat32
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In reply to carpe vinum • 3:20p, 9/5/17
AG
PORTRAIT VIDEO
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JustPanda
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In reply to Phat32 • 3:22p, 9/5/17
AG
It'd be 3x cooler as a landscape. Still an amazing video. That thing is a monster.

These are the times I'm glad I wasn't alive in the 1700-1800's. Imagine Irma or Harvey sneaking up on you and then falcon punching you at night.
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aggiedata
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3:48p, 9/5/17
AG
Looks insane
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aggiedata
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3:50p, 9/5/17
AG
Not sure what to think.
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Charpie
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3:57p, 9/5/17
AG
Depression in the gulf
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Centerpole90
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In reply to Charpie • 3:59p, 9/5/17
AG
Cold front will take care of it. Hopefully after it sparks some rain in the RGV.
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The Wonderer
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In reply to Charpie • 5:17p, 9/5/17
AG
Charpie said:
Depression in the gulf
Not gonna do anything before getting torn apart.
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The Fife
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5:33p, 9/5/17
18z GFS run... just over the NC border.

Nobody is in the clear.
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Smithjg
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In reply to The Fife • 6:00p, 9/5/17
The Fife said:
12z GFS currently at hour 120... Ft Lauderdale taking the northern eyewall.
My goofy mother in law is flying INTO Fort Lauderdale tomorrow from Austin. This after evacuating to Temple from Victoria...
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to The Fife • 6:18p, 9/5/17
AG
The Fife said:
18z GFS run... just over the NC border.

Nobody is in the clear.


GFS was supposedly a bad run. Ensemble agrees more with Euro.
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carpe vinum
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In reply to Smithjg • 6:23p, 9/5/17
AG
Smithjg said:
The Fife said:
12z GFS currently at hour 120... Ft Lauderdale taking the northern eyewall.
My goofy mother in law is flying INTO Fort Lauderdale tomorrow from Austin. This after evacuating to Temple from Victoria...
They are following her, I'll chip in on a ticket to England.
https://i.imgur.com/uReoXE6.gif
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The Fife
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 6:34p, 9/5/17
I thought Euro was a bit off, it was initialized 40mb too low and never caught up with where the storm actually is. Wish I were up to see 00z runs but I'll have to catch them in the morning.

The Euro is far enough to the west that I'd be alright with it. Florida would really take the bite out of Irma by the time it got here. This hitting near Miami and avoiding land before a GA - mid SC coast stuff on the other hand...
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BuddysBud
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In reply to Smithjg • 6:43p, 9/5/17
AG
Smithjg said:
The Fife said:
12z GFS currently at hour 120... Ft Lauderdale taking the northern eyewall.
My goofy mother in law is flying INTO Fort Lauderdale tomorrow from Austin. This after evacuating to Temple from Victoria...


Maybe she should visit North Korea?
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oragator
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7:07p, 9/5/17
Pressure is down to 916!
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BuddysBud
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7:13p, 9/5/17
AG
Those in the path have a huge F-3 tornado headed for them!
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Cromagnum
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In reply to BuddysBud • 7:50p, 9/5/17
AG
BuddysBud said:
Those in the path have a huge F-3 tornado headed for them!


Sort of. Horizontal wind speed matches but there is no swirling motion in a narrow space like in a tornado, nor is there nearly the vertical motion. Still bad news though.
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oragator
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7:52p, 9/5/17
Eyewall replacement may be in progress. Wind might come done for a bit, will be interesting to see the 11p advisory. If it doesn't happen before that it could set a wind record.
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The Fife
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7:54p, 9/5/17
Is the east shift starting to get support?

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